Super Bowl Whale Watching

Over the last few hours the sports books in Las Vegas have begun to take in more money on the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is beginning to balance out the dollars wagered (legally) on this evening’s Super Bowl. Having a balanced ledger is always the goal for a Vegas sports book, as they will gladly pay the winners from the losers, and pocket 10% of the amount bet on the losing bets. That 10% is called the juice, or vigorish, and it’s what pays for all that Vegas glitz, and has multi-millionaires forever planning the newest, biggest, and best ever casino.

It really is fabulous

The casinos don’t expect to exceed the record $94.5 million wagered in 2006, but they do look for the total money bet to get pretty close to that amount, once the Whales start plunking down the odd $500,000 to $2 million dollar bets, that earn them that nickname.

Assuming $90 million is bet on tonight’s game, and the money is split down the middle, the casinos will make $4.5 million on the game alone. But the real money will be made at the gaming tables, where Vegas holds an edge in every game except against a skilled 21 player.

For the most part a "Whale" in Vegas is a casino gambler, and generally a 21 player, or maybe Roulette on occasion. The man that makes a large (whale) bet on a sporting event is usually much more shy and circumspect than the typical Whale. The "classic" Whale is an obscenely rich Asian gentleman, who floats into town on a private jet (paid for by a casino), with bodyguards and lovely women in tow. He will then consume ten’s of thousands of dollars in free suites, food, and beverages, and maybe take in a huge prizefight and a top show or two comped by his hotel.

In his other time there, the Whale will also proceed to gamble 50K or more per hand at Blackjack, or some other game – winning or losing 5 or 10 million in a couple of days before moving on to some other exotic locale
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A Whale is as big as it gets

 In my time in Vegas I managed to see some enormous bets being made – 25K bets, but very few people have the guts or the money to make bets twice that size and larger, all weekend long. That’s what those Whales do.



The "big" board


I have also seen a few big boards in casino sports books take jumps and dives on point spreads and odds, when someone or a few someone’s wager so much money that it influences the line. For the most part, million dollar bets (if they are made in person) are made by a proxy, or a number of proxies spread about town. Or, they might be from one casino book "laying money off" to another casino, in an attempt to balance the money they have taken in on an upcoming game.

There is one thing you can be absolutely certain of with these Whales. They are not rolling in on private jets with 20 person entourages, and they are probably not spending much time at the gaming tables, unless they are killing time betting a hundred or so a hand at something once in a great while.



Billy is the best

 No, these Whales are truly professional gamblers, or more properly, professional bettors. They have examined a game they are betting in every possible way and have (at least in their own minds) established an inefficiency in the betting line on the game.

The story slowly leaking out of Vegas at this hour is that the late, big money is coming in on Pittsburgh. This can be construed to mean that the guys that are supposedly the best in the world at this kind of wagering seem to like the Steelers to beat Green Bay, or at least cover 3 points. Either that or they are putting down short money at $1 million to win $1.2 or more? It’s also very possible that they aren’t betting on who wins, but rather the total, or over/under on how many points both teams will score in the game combined.

I have a theory that I have held for many years when it comes to big games like this one today -- the single biggest game in the world from a betting perspective – and it’s that the general public is wrong a lot more often than they are right.

So, if you have yet to bet on tonight’s game, and are wondering which team to place your money on, think of your choice like this:

I want my money with the really smart, professional gamblers?

I want my money with all the losers whose juice built Las Vegas?

You decide.