Baseball Predictions for 2011 -- part 1

For the record, I am often pretty good at this stuff, having pegged Texas and Cincinnati to win their divisions last year, and for Boston to not make the post-season. I have also been known to go down in flames, like my choice of Arizona to win the NL West in 2010.

Sometimes ya eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eat you.

AL East
Boston
New York
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Toronto

No surprises here really, except maybe Baltimore being a 3^rd place team in the division? They have certainly improved their hitting quite a bit with the addition of Vlade Guerrero, and the home run potential of Mark Reynolds, and there is some nice young starting pitching that has a bit more experience. The Buck Showalter effect is usually a positive one for a couple of years, then his players will begin to hate him

Tampa will fall back a bit and Toronto is improved, so we could see all 5 teams play at or better than .500 ball.

I am predicting that the Yankees won’t make the post-season unless they win the division, but they should still win about 90 games.

Boston is the favorite, but they are not a lock, and certainly not a 100-win team if Josh Beckett doesn’t make a big comeback, and he’s looked horrible all spring.

AL Central
Chicago
Minnesota (wild card)
Detroit
Kansas City
Cleveland

I pick the White Sox every year, not the least of the reasons why being how much I like Ozzie Guillen. Beyond that they are pretty solid throughout the roster, and there is some decent depth too. The Twins should win the AL Wild Card, primarily benefiting from the fact that the AL East teams will be beating each other up for half of the season, and Detroit is a better than .500 team that could contend with some luck.

I think the Royals have a good chance to come on later in the season, assuming they start to bring some of their outstanding minor league talent up, but they are really a team for 2012, or 2013.

Cleveland is a mess, and maybe the worst team in the entire American League. Too bad for Carlos Santana and Shin Soo Choo, a couple of very talented players that few people will get to see play.

AL West
Los Angeles
Texas
Oakland
Seattle

I think Texas will contend for the division title, but the addition of Dan Haren to the Angels staff and the imminent return of Kendrys Morales to the line up makes them the better team in my mind.  Oakland and Seattle are both better, which in Seattle’s case is not saying much.

NL East
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington
New York

I am already on the record picking against the Phillies. They are old, brittle and declining, and all the pitching in the world isn’t worth snot if you can’t score runs. They have been scoring fewer and fewer runs each season for the past 3, and losing Jayson Werth to a trade, and now Chase Utley and Brad Lidge to bad injuries makes things worse.

Atlanta is not a great team, and maybe not even a 90 win team, but they have enough to win a weak division. Florida will do well to play .500, and the Nats are improved. The Mets are a disaster.

NL Central
Milwaukee
Cincinnati (wild card)
Chicago
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Houston

The Brewers are the "sexy" pick this season, based on two very nice starting pitcher acquisitions in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Even with Greinke breaking a rib, and having an iffy quality to him, and Marcum’s shoulder tightness, they look very good, and are my pick to win the most games (90+) in the league this year.

I think that the Reds are right behind Milwaukee, and the NL wild card winner. Young and improving, even Dusty Baker probably can’t ruin this team.

Even the obvious genius of Tony LaRussa won't be able to overcome the Cardinals the loss of one of the best pitchers in baseball in Adam Wainwright, and the Pujols contract buzz won’t help either, so the Cubs may slip in the race for a brief period. I like Pittsburgh’s young hitters, McCutcheon, Alvarez, Tabata, and Walker, and Houston will finish last because there is little left on that team, except for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, an aging Carlos Lee, and perhaps a new fireballer named Bud Norris?

NL West
Colorado
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Arizona
San Diego

I have Colorado winning this division mostly by default, as the Giants last year reminded me of one of those Lego toys you buy your child, that after you take it a part, and mix it up with some other Legos and try to re-assemble it, it kind of works for a while, and looks okay, but over time it turns out to be very flawed. Remember, this is a team that caught the Padres really late in the year, and then got very hot, but there are huge questions all over this team once one gets past Lincecum, Cain, and Buster Posey.

The Rockies look to be pretty solid if not a really good team, but good enough to win a really mediocre division where no team will win more than about 87 or 88 games. The Dodgers are probably a .500 team, and the Diamondbacks will battle it out with a suddenly bad San Diego team that most folks picked to finish last in 2010. The Padres don’t have Adrian Gonzalez anymore, and Mat Latos starts the year on the DL. A bullpen full of studs will only carry a team so far.

I am not going to pick pennant winners right now, but with a gun to my head, I'd take Boston and Atlanta, and another title for the Red Sox.

Next time, Cy Young and MVP sleeper candidates, and the Rookies.

Play ball.