“PHILLIES FAIL TO MAKE POST-SEASON!”

Imagine reading that on September 29, 2011?

You can sneer or cheer, believe it or not, but it’s a reasonable prospect right now, even if Philadelphia is right behind Boston as the betting favorite to win the World Series in 2011.

What about the Phillies, anyway?

It’s easy for me to say now that I felt they’d be especially vulnerable to injuries this season with the recent bad news regarding Chase Utley’s his knee, but Jimmy Rollins and Utley have both spent some serious time on the DL the last two seasons. Right now, the average age of their starting line up is 32+.

In the rotation, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt are 33, and Cliff Lee is 32. Cole Hamels is the kid at 27, and how great is this kid’s life anyway? The forgotten man in this group is Joe Blanton, who quietly put together a lot of nice games at the end of 2010. I think he finally swore off Ring Dings and Twinkies.



That's a whole lotta Joe

 How does Brad Lidge (34) end up being older than all those guys, especially Oswalt? I could swear that I’ve been watching Oswalt pitch for about 35 years.  How does he end up being younger than Brad Lidge?



Is he 39, or 49?



Jose Contreras needs to swear off cake too, and he’s somewhere between 39 and 49 years old, isn’t he?

The "youth" on this team, Domonic Brown is 23 who is also hurt right now. I didn’t anticipate that injury, though I did think: "What if he doesn’t make it this season?"

30-year old Shane Victorino in center is a youngster.

What Brown’s injury will mean at least a few weeks into the season is that Ben Francisco (29) has a chance to play, and he might be a nice surprise. He was a RD 5 pick out of UCLA in 2002 by Cleveland, and he has shown a nice speed/power combination when he’s gotten the opportunity to play.

The other guy in the outfield will be 38-year old Raul Ibanez. How long can Ibanez keep it up? I was wrong about him not being able to come back last season, and I am always going to root for a guy that will be 39 before summer even starts, but I’m not going to bet on him staying healthy.

Ryan Howard (31) has been declining over the last two years as has Jimmy Rollins (32). How bad is Utley’s injury? 32-year old guys that start getting injured don’t suddenly become completely healthy again.

Third baseman Placido Polanco is 35. Carlos Ruiz is 32. I love them both as players, but they aren’t kids either.



Pitching forever?

 Age and injuries on baseball teams generally follow similar paths these days in a game without rampant use of PED’s, and the Phillies look to be a vulnerable team. It’s been reasonably shown that a MLB player’s most productive (batting) seasons are those between the age of 27-32. With pitchers, a little older is all right, so the rotation looks rock solid, even if they do have one or two guys miss time.

The argument in picking Philadelphia to win the NL pennant, and in making them the second favorite to win the 2011 World Series is the logical, and easy choice.

I think their hitting will let them down when they inevitably incur another injury or two in the starting line up. I think their bullpen remains shaky and questionable, and their bench is lean. One of these days one or more of those starting pitchers will find himself on the DL.

Will the Phillies win the NL East, or at worst win the NL Wild Card?

I’d be a fool to bet against both, but it would surprise me very much if the faux headline of this story became a reality on September 29.