Did you read/see how the Ray's defense botched the bottom of the 4th yesterday, and I mean aside from Myers fly ball folly? No errors charged, but some awful baseball.
Boston starts Lackey today because he's been so good at home. I said back in March that Lackey was an excellent comeback candidate, and it was then that I also heard how good he was in the clubhouse, and a great teammate. If nothing else, Boston has a ton of those guys, starting with him, Gomes, and Victorino.
Heyward gets the key hit for the Braves. When he first came up a few years back I can remember Peter Gammons saying how good he was, but his minor league roommate was the better hitter -- Freddy Freeman. Does Freeman win the NL MVP? Or is it Yadier, or Goldschmidt.
Kimbrel looks shaky getting the save. He blew the big one last year, and he reminds me more and more of Brad Lidge.
Atlanta better win the next two, because no one is beating Kershaw.
Looked like a blow out in Oakland early on. I think the entire key to Detroit's post season will be told today -- if Verlander can pitch anything like last year they'll win the series. If he pitches the way he has for most of this year, they'll lose. It'll just be too much to overcome with Cabrera hurting.
I guess Cole is the real deal. If it had been my choice for the Cards yesterday, I would have started Miller or Wacha. As good as Lynn was down the stretch it looks like he's run out of gas again, like he did last season. I think Pittsburgh has to win both games at home to advance, but they sure look like a confident team, don't they? They really showed me something sweeping this 3 games in Cincinnati to clinch the home field in wild card game.
The consensus is that Baker got fired because he manages play off games the same way he manages regular season games. He leaves pitchers in too long all the time. It's like he's still living in he early 1970's, and all his starters are Phil Niekro.
Shame about Matt Harvey, but it’s not like the Mets were going to challenge in 2014 anyway, but by 2015 I think they’ll have a chance to be a legitimate contender.
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Lebron Redux, and F U
I have come to the realization that I have zero patience with anyone who has negative things to say about Lebron James, mostly because it seems that most of those folks are so stupid re the man, or hoops in general. That they have no idea what they're talking about? Jordan was a prick, yet he is revered for some reason. Lebron is a nice kid, and he is despised all because of his televised "decision." How many 24 or 25 year old kids have made multiple dumb choices in the their lives? How many of those dumb choices resulted in a net gain of a million dollars to a Boys & Girls Club?
Michael was mean, vindictive and a bully and he's idolized -- Lebron is the exact opposite, and he is hated.
I hear about loyalty. Where was Jordan's "loyalty" when he took off to play baseball for two years? Lebron carried a miserable collection of scrubs for years in Cleveland, and got nothing for his effort. Loyalty is the most mis-used word in sports, and anyone who says they wouldn't leave their current job for the same job across the street for more money and a better environment is a liar.
In almost every profession when the time comes that you can’t do an acceptable job, you are kicked to the curb. Where is the loyalty then?
By the standards some of these idiots have once you get hired at the age of 14 as a newspaper carrier, dishwasher, or burger-flipper you should remain in that job your entire working life out of loyalty, right?
Forget happiness or achievement...really, that's what you'd do, right?
Right now, Lebron is better than Jordan ever was. He has two NBA titles one year earlier than Jordan had his first two. He has been to 4 finals, three more than Jordan had at the same age. His teams have had a better winning percentage in the playoffs than Jordan's had. In the playoffs, he has a better scoring average, rebound average, assist average than Michael had.
Don't get me wrong on this, I am not a fan of the guy, just sick of all the idiots that have no idea what they are talking about -- generally the folks that skim the first two or three paragraphs of a story, and make their minds up about something. I wanted Miami to win so those folks could eat a fair share of their own uninformed and stupid bullshit.
Jordan came from solid, 2-parent family, and grew up a calm and friendly place, whereas James grew up in a one-parent household in crime riddled city.
The world had barely heard about Michael Jordan until he went to college, where he was sheltered and coddled, and arguably just one of a dozen or so top college basketball players. Lebron James was featured on the covers of magazines at the age of 15 and 16, and had his high school games televised. He was dubbed "The Chosen One," which is an incredible burden for a kid to tote through life.
None of this changed James for the worse, and he played his heart out for Cleveland and carried that team to a place they had never gotten close to before. Then, when he realized that he had gone as far as he could, and no help was coming his way in Ohio, he did what thousands of pro athletes do all the time and signed on to work for a better employer. He did what we all have an opportunity to do, if we have the talent and/or skills that put us in demand?
Lebron moved on for what was less money than he could have made by staying in Cleveland, because it wasn't about money, it was about being happy.
All those garbage men, waitresses, accountants, bank VP's, factory workers, maids, and other cry babies in Ohio can sob and moan and talk about loyalty all they want because their lives are so pitifully meaningless that they need to tie their own happiness to something that they can only dream of being.
Talented people have options in life – doctors, lawyers, stockbrokers all stay with the same hospital, law firm, and brokerage for their entire lives?
I know, all you morons that hate Lebron wanna be like that cut-throat Mike.
I feel sorry for you....
...no I don't...losers...
Michael was mean, vindictive and a bully and he's idolized -- Lebron is the exact opposite, and he is hated.
I hear about loyalty. Where was Jordan's "loyalty" when he took off to play baseball for two years? Lebron carried a miserable collection of scrubs for years in Cleveland, and got nothing for his effort. Loyalty is the most mis-used word in sports, and anyone who says they wouldn't leave their current job for the same job across the street for more money and a better environment is a liar.
In almost every profession when the time comes that you can’t do an acceptable job, you are kicked to the curb. Where is the loyalty then?
By the standards some of these idiots have once you get hired at the age of 14 as a newspaper carrier, dishwasher, or burger-flipper you should remain in that job your entire working life out of loyalty, right?
Forget happiness or achievement...really, that's what you'd do, right?
Right now, Lebron is better than Jordan ever was. He has two NBA titles one year earlier than Jordan had his first two. He has been to 4 finals, three more than Jordan had at the same age. His teams have had a better winning percentage in the playoffs than Jordan's had. In the playoffs, he has a better scoring average, rebound average, assist average than Michael had.
Don't get me wrong on this, I am not a fan of the guy, just sick of all the idiots that have no idea what they are talking about -- generally the folks that skim the first two or three paragraphs of a story, and make their minds up about something. I wanted Miami to win so those folks could eat a fair share of their own uninformed and stupid bullshit.
Jordan came from solid, 2-parent family, and grew up a calm and friendly place, whereas James grew up in a one-parent household in crime riddled city.
The world had barely heard about Michael Jordan until he went to college, where he was sheltered and coddled, and arguably just one of a dozen or so top college basketball players. Lebron James was featured on the covers of magazines at the age of 15 and 16, and had his high school games televised. He was dubbed "The Chosen One," which is an incredible burden for a kid to tote through life.
None of this changed James for the worse, and he played his heart out for Cleveland and carried that team to a place they had never gotten close to before. Then, when he realized that he had gone as far as he could, and no help was coming his way in Ohio, he did what thousands of pro athletes do all the time and signed on to work for a better employer. He did what we all have an opportunity to do, if we have the talent and/or skills that put us in demand?
Lebron moved on for what was less money than he could have made by staying in Cleveland, because it wasn't about money, it was about being happy.
All those garbage men, waitresses, accountants, bank VP's, factory workers, maids, and other cry babies in Ohio can sob and moan and talk about loyalty all they want because their lives are so pitifully meaningless that they need to tie their own happiness to something that they can only dream of being.
Talented people have options in life – doctors, lawyers, stockbrokers all stay with the same hospital, law firm, and brokerage for their entire lives?
I know, all you morons that hate Lebron wanna be like that cut-throat Mike.
I feel sorry for you....
...no I don't...losers...
Sunday, April 14, 2013
American League -- East
Boston Red Sox
Team Motto: No more funny valentines!
Hello: Shane Victorino, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Dempster**
Goodbye: Bobby Valentine
Pleasant surprise player? Xander Bogaerts
Nice comeback player: John Lackey
 |
| Not funny, just fun |
There are all kinds of new names dotting this roster, and once they get David Ortiz back they will score some runs, assuming Jacoby Ellsbury, Will Middlebrooks, and Dustin Pedroia stay healthy. Look for top prospect Bogaerts to be up by mid-season and be a key performer down the stretch.
Teaming with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felix Doubront, I really think the Dempster signing was a very good one, and that John Lackey will come back strong. Story is he’s a good clubhouse guy, he just despised Bobby Valentine, but in that respect he was in vast majority.
The bullpen is a big strength if Hanrahan can handle the pressure and Bailey can stay healthy? Uehara is lights out, and Junichi Tazawa may have more talent than any of them?
Prediction: 1st Place
The division looks to be a crapshoot, with all 5 teams having a legitimate shot. I like Farrell’s softer approach, which will be well served with a team like Boston, after last season’s fiasco. If they stay reasonably healthy, I think Boston wins it?
Baltimore Orioles
Team motto: The NEW Manny being Manny!
Hello: Alexi Casilla, Chris Dickerson
Goodbye: Matt Reynolds
Pleasant surprise player? Brian Matusz
Nice comeback player: Nate McLouth
 |
| A new and improved Manny |
For a team with few stars, Baltimore will score a lot of runs this season, as aside from second base, they have all kinds of thump in the line up. One player, Manny Machado, may be a super star by July?
The starting rotation lacks a true #1 starter, and maybe even a #2 guy, but Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel are solid, and there is a lot of young talent working their way up. Chris Tillman looks on the verge of a break out, and (prospect) Dylan Bundy may be the best pitcher to come along since Strasburg?
Prediction: 2nd Place
The bullpen is a big key for this team, just as it was in 2012, but they will need the starting rotation to hold up and go deep into games. On offense, the teams is balanced and deep, and Showalter is very good at maximizing all of his players – at least for now.
Toronto Blue Jays
Team motto: It’s all abooot this year!
Hello: Jose Reyes, RA Dickey, Mark Buerhle, Josh Johnson, Melky Cabrera
Goodbye: Henderson Alvarez
Pleasant surprise player? Casey Janssen
Nice comeback player: Brandon Morrow
 |
| Morrow has the stuff to win a Cy Young. |
The team will score some runs with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, and Reyes leading the way. JP Arencibia is a nice young catcher, but after that the hitting gets a bit thin.
I don’t think Dickey will come close to replicating his 2012 Cy Young season, but will be pretty good. Buerhle is a nice add, but I think Josh Johnson won’t ever fulfill his early promise due to cumulative effect of all the injuries he’s suffered,
The bullpen is okay, and there is a surplus of speed on the roster, so the Jays could lead all MLB in stolen bases, depending on whether Rajai Davis, Emilio Bonifacio, and Anthony Gose get to play much?
Prediction: 3rd Place
Morrow may be the best pitcher on the team, and he has potential to be a dominant starting pitcher for years to come. I think this is a good team, but much like the Dodgers, it’s not just about stars. They will compete, but I don’t see them wining a play off berth..
Tampa Bay Rays
Team motto: Pitching is 100% of our game!
Hello: Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, James Loney, Wil Myers
Goodbye: James Shields, Wade Davis, BJ Upton
Pleasant surprise player? Kelly Johnson
Nice comeback player: Evan Longoria
 |
| Joe's serving pitching only. |
The Rays need hitting though, and may be forced to call up Wil Myers (the next best hitting star this side of Oscar Taveras) before they want to, just to keep pace in a brutally competitive division. Considering they traded (in part) a top-starting pitcher in James Shields, and former prospect Wade Davis for him, his MLB career may have to begin sooner than (money-conscious) Tampa ownership wants it to be?
Third baseman Evan Longoria is a stud, but as good as Ben Zobrist is, he is not a #4 hitter for 27 other MLB teams. Desmond Jennings looks to be a good player, but after that it’s very lean.
Prediction: 4th Place
It seems that Tampa always finds a way to get into the mix, and this season may looks to be no different. The Rays will contend yet again, but fall short.
New York Yankees
Team motto: Hot Bronx Time Machine!
Hello: Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, Juan Rivera
Goodbye: Rafael Soriano
Pleasant surprise player? Eduardo Nunez
Nice comeback player: Mariano Rivera
 |
| A-Roid has been working out...just a bit... |
There is a school of thought that if New York can just hang close enough until Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson get back, they’ll make a run and make the playoffs? Maybe so, but I don’t see those guys with declining skills getting it done, as they’ll probably be exchanging places on the DL with Youk, Pronk, and Ichiro?
It’s nice to see Rivera back, but I could do without all the "what a classy guy" slop. The bullpen however, does appear to be a strength, but I am not sure about how the rotation will hold up. CC Sabathia has thrown a ton of innings, Hiroki Kuroda is 38 years old, and Andy Pettitte is 40. Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova , both only 26, do not appear to be much more than staff fillers.
Prediction: 5th Place
This could get really ugly, but it’ll be fascinating to watch. Maybe (injured prospect) Miguel Pineda will come back and be the young pitching star the team needs to make the play-offs? Maybe CC finally breaks down, and the team loses 92? If I had to choose one of those scenarios, I’ll take the latter.
Nickel recap:
I don’t see this division as the strong and super-competitive one that so many prognosticators think it will be. I really feel it’s between the (good but not great) Red Sox and Orioles, with the loser of that battle taking a wild card slot.
Friday, April 12, 2013
National League -- West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Team Motto: We're a dry hot!
Hello: Martin Prado, Cody Ross, Brandon McCarthy
Goodbye: Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, Chris Young
Pleasant surprise players? Patrick Corbin, Didi Gregorious
Nice comeback player: Adam Eaton
 |
| Manager Kirk Gibson is hot too. |
Prado (3B, or anywhere else) is very under-rated, Aaron Hill is the best offensive second baseman in the NL. Paul Goldschmidt may be a big star pretty soon? They are biding their time on prospect Gregorious to take over at short, and Miguel Montero is a very good all around catcher.
The rotation is pretty good if unspectacular with Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill solid, and the bullpen has first rate set up guy in David Hernandez in front of JJ Putz.
Prediction: 1st Place
I always botch predicting this division, so I am purposely being somewhat counter-intuitive in picking the D-Backs to win it over the "sexy" Dodgers, and defending World Series champion Giants. I do think Arizona is the team with the fewest questions, and if Corbin take the next step up, and young prospect starters Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs mature by mid-season, this could easily be a playoff team.
San Francisco Giants
Team motto: Beard Free!
Hello: Chad Gaudin
Goodbye: Melky Cabrera, Brian Wilson
Pleasant surprise player? Brandon Belt
Nice comeback player: Pablo Sandoval
 |
| "The Beard" has been shaved. |
Can Sandoval stay healthy? Will Hunter Pence stop his decline? Will former top prospect Brandon Belt finally step up? Way too much needs to go right with this team for me to think their good starting rotation and excellent bull pen can carry them any farther than maybe a wild card slot?
Yes, NL MVP Buster Posey is the best catcher in baseball and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are the best 1-2 pitcher combination this side of Philadelphia, but Tim Lincecum has lost his magic, and I am still not convinced Ryan Vogelsong is the real deal?
Prediction: 2nd Place
It would be foolish to think that this club can’t repeat, but to me there are too many things that could go wrong, and any one or two of them could cripple this team. Posey, Cain, Sandoval and Bumgarner will all need to produce top seasons, and even if they do, I don’t think it will be enough.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Team motto: Who needs an infield, we have STARS!
Hello: Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu
Goodbye: Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton
Pleasant surprise player? Josh Beckett
Nice comeback player: Carl Crawford
 |
| "Hey Matt, can you guys run a fast break?" |
The Dodgers certainly have arms after Kershaw – Beckett, Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley. How good any of these guys will be is a huge question, though I do like Capuano to put up another useful season, and for Beckett to forgo beer and fried chicken and make a nice comeback.
The big problem with this team aside from the questions about the starting rotation is catcher, second, short, third, and right? You know, the rest of the team? I am also not high on Brandon League as the closer for a team that has a stud like Kenley Jansen available, though it’s my bet that Manager Don Mattingly will be using him to close out games soon enough
Prediction: 3rd Place
This team has a chance to be a juggernaut or a dumpster fire, and I look for a variation of both scenarios as the season progresses. It will be entertaining ride no matter how it turns, because hey, in LA it’s all about the show(time), isn’t it?
Colorado Rockies
Hello: Wilton Lopez, Jon Garland, Reid Brignac, Chris Volstad
Goodbye: Ramon Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie
Pleasant surprise player? Josh Rutledge
Nice comeback players: Juan Nicasio, Michael Cuddyer
 |
| Plenty of runs in Coors, but most by the visitors. |
The Rockies have some nice hitters home or away, in Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Dexter Fowler appears to be on the verge of being a star, and Rutledge showed huge promise at the end of last season when Tulowitzki was hurt (again). The catcher is Wilin Rosario, who may hit 35 homer while committing 45 passed balls, and creaky Todd Helton is back for one more go-round at first base while former prospect Tyler Colvin bides his time in AAA. Michael Cuddyer is a very good hitter who missed 61 games last season due to injuries.
The bullpen is strong with Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and Lopez setting up Rafael Bettancourt.
Prediction: 4th Place
The Rockies will kick the snot out of some teams in Coors Field, and watch Garland and Francis get the snot kicked out them at home and away. I think they’ll win more games than San Diego, but if both teams lose 90+ who cares?
San Diego Padres
Team motto: Losing 6-5 now, instead of 2-1!
Hello: Jedd Gyorko
Goodbye: Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson
Pleasant surprise player? Yonder Alonso
Nice comeback player: Carlos Quentin
 |
| The fences are in, but will the fans be? |
Edinson Volquez a heads up an poor-to-mediocre rotation that may cause an excellent bullpen to be over-used by mid-May? Huston Street is still an excellent closer, and with Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, and Andrew Cashner backing him up the Padres should be able to protect the few leads they will take into the last few innings of those games.
Yonder Alonso, who was stymied by Joey Votto being the Red’s first baseman in Cincinnati, is a talented player who should develop into a good power hitter. If Carlos Quentin can ever stay healthy enough to play more than 120 games in a season he will put up 40 homers. Problem is, he’s only played more than 120 that twice in his career. Former first round Miami draft pick Cameron Maybin showed some skills after an awful start to the 2101 season, and short stop Everth Cabrera may lead the majors in steals, assuming he can reach first base enough?
Prediction: 5th Place
This team may have a hard time scoring runs in Colorado, and with the pitching they have it could get ugly early and often. Maybe rookie Jedd Gyorko infielder will provide some life support to the anemic offense until Headley is back. Pitcher Cory Luebke is a talented pitcher recovering from TJS, and should be back around the All Star break. Neither player will be enough from keeping this team from losing 100 games.
Nickel recap:
Maybe the Giants keep everyone healthy and they all produce like 2012? Maybe the Dodgers roll a bunch of 7's? I know the Rockies and Padres are bad, so that leaves me with Arizona. Maybe this is the season I get this division right?
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
American League -- Central
Detroit Tigers
Team Motto: Gettin’ Miggy wid it!
Hello: Torii Hunter
Goodbye: Delmon Young
Pleasant surprise player? Andy Dirks
Nice comeback player: Victor Martinez
 |
| Miggy gave up Crown Royal for a Triple Crown |
The rotation is solid and good, with Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and (the next Verlander?) Max Scherzer (the next Verlander?), and the bullpen is solid, even if they don’t have an anointed closer to date.
Torii Hunter is declining and Jhonny Peralta is weak defensively, but there is a Miggy clone in Avisail Garcia waiting in the wings to add another excellent bat to a team that will score a lot of runs.
Prediction: 1st Place
I have a hunch that this is the season in which Scherzer emerges as an elite starter, and Andy Dirks could finally solve the revolving door problem Jim Leyland has had in left field.
Cleveland Indians
Team motto: We’re Tito-licious!
Hello: Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Drew Stubbs, Brett Myers, Matt Reynolds
Goodbye: Shin-Soo Choo
Pleasant surprise player? Lonnie Chissenhall
Nice comeback player: Brett Myers
 |
| Swisher will be a great add. |
Ballplayers love having Terry Francona as a manager, that is a given, so right away this is a team that will always give their best all the time. If Chissenhall at third finally lives up to his prospect hype the infield will be excellent, with Asbrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis and Swisher around the horn. I think the Yankees made a big mistake letting Swisher walk away? Bourn is capable of hitting .300, scoring 100+ runs, and leading MLB is stolen bases, and Michael Brantley continues to get better.
Vinnie Pestano is a great 8th inning guy setting up Chris Perez who has solidified his skills. The big question for the Indians is their starting rotation? Can Justin Masterson figure out a way to get left-handed hitters out? Can Ubaldo Jimenez re-capture the magic that saw him average 15 wins a year from 2008-2010? Zach McCallister is a nice sleeper, and Carlos Carrasco brings back his electric skills after missing all of 2012 after TJS.
Prediction: 2nd Place
I think the veteran presence of Brett Myers in the rotation will be a good one, and Carlos Santana is an All Star catcher, though he needs to improve defensively. Trevor Bauer is one of the top pitching prospects in all of MLB. If the pitching takes a step up, this is a playoff team.
Kansas City Royals
Team motto: This is "next year," or next year will be!
Hello: James Shields, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana
Goodbye: Wil Myers
Pleasant surprise player? Lorenzo Cain
Nice comeback player: Ervin Santana
 |
| Less dancin' and more hittin' for Moose & Hosmer? |
The Royals trade top prospect Myers to Tampa Bay to land a top starting pitcher in Shields, along with middlin’ starter Davis serving notice that they think they are ready to challenge for a division title, or at least a wild card spot. They also acquired Santana, who if he can ever solve his gopheritis could be a solid number 2 or 3 starter.
The bullpen is loaded with very nice talent in Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, and Tim Collins. Former top draft pick Danny Duffy is waiting his turn after having TJS surgery last year.
The line up is loaded with young stars, and potential stars. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are good, and it looks like (catcher) Salvador Perez and shortstop Alcides Escobar will be? The two big questions are much hyped prospects Mike Moustakas (3B) and Eric Hosmer (1B)? They both had disappointing 2012 seasons.
Prediction: 3rd Place
They have a couple of burners in outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson, and I look for Dyson to push the disaster known as Jeff Francoeur to the bench at some point. Hosmer and Moustakas must take a big step up for this team to be good enough to over-come what may be a shaky rotation after Shields. They can make the post-season if those two do come through and the 2-5 starters are good enough, but I think 2014 is their year.
Chicago White Sox
Team motto: We’re still better than the Cubs!
Hello: Jeff Keppinger
Goodbye: AJ Pierzynski
Pleasant surprise player? Dylan Axelrod
Nice comeback player: John Danks
 |
| Maybe the old days were better after all? |
Remember when (Chicago manager) Robin Ventura charged the mound, and old timer Nolan Ryan put a head lock on him, and pounded away? How about when Ventura had that awful broken leg sliding into home? This season may not be quite as humiliating or physically painful as those two experiences, but 90 loses and an ulcer may be on the horizon?
It’s not that the Sox don’t have some talent, but Paul Konerko is going to stop hitting soon, Adam Dunn is windier than the Windy City, and Alex Rios is the epitome of that "box of chocolates." Catcher Tyler Flowers may hit a bunch of homers, but not much else, and Gordon Beckham has yet to fulfill his early promise. Dayan Viciedo will be just all right, and Alexi Ramirez is very under-rated as an all-around short stop.
The top two guys in the rotation, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy are very good, but it’s mediocre after that. John Danks was a star in the making until he got hurt last year, and he’ll need to come all the way back if Chicago is going to challenge.
The bullpen is average, with Addison Reed looking like he could be pretty good, and old reliable Matt Thornton still good in a set-up role.
Prediction: 4th Place
Keppinger is a nice player, but he shouldn’t be a full-time starter at third. Not much team speed, and a weak bench. I have never liked Gavin Floyd much, and I don’t know why? I could be wrong and Konerko, Dunn and Rios (making a combined $48.5 million this season) will all come up big, but I this is still a team going down, not up.
Minnesota Twins
Team motto: Who are these guys?
Hello: Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley
Goodbye: Denard Span, Ben Revere
Pleasant surprise player? Chris Parmelee
Nice comeback player: Justin Morneau
 |
| Who are those guys? |
It seems like Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire has been around forever, doesn’t it? He has seen good times and bad in his 11 seasons running the Twins, and has often over-achieved during than time. This year, he will need to work a lot of magic if this team is to contend for anything, except staying out of last place.
The pitching staff is a mess of retreads (Pelfrey, Correia) and wannabe’s (Worley, and Scott Diamond). They gave speedsters Ben Revere to the Phillies for Worley, and Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, so they’re trying to improve things, but it’s not happening soon. The bullpen doesn’t offer much after Jared Burton setting up Glenn Perkins.
I would bet you could ask a lot of very knowledgeable baseball fans who Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier are, and they couldn’t ell you that they are slated to man second and short for the Twins this year?
Prediction: 5th Place
Minnesota will have some thump in their line up, as Josh Willingham hit 35 homers in 2012, Morneau is back and (finally) healthy, and of course Mister Twin, Joe Mauer is still a great hitter. Trevor Plouffe and Parmelee are potential 20-25 home run guys, and Ryan Doumit is a good hitter if he can stay healthy, which has happened seldom in his career. Top prospect Aaron Hicks won the job in center with a hot spring, but I think he may have needed a bit more time in AAA?
Nickel recap:
Too much would need to go wrong for Detroit to not win the division, but I do like the Indians to push them, and for the Royals to push Cleveland. If the Twins are pushing Chicago by the All Star break, look for Robin Ventura to be fired. If that does happen at least it’ll be a lot less painful than a Nolan Ryan noogie or a broken leg.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
NCAA Hoop Pools: Don’t try to out run the Bear
So it was a great game Monday night, wasn’t it? Over all #1 seed Louisville beats Michigan, and the "madness" ends with a shower of cash for those folks that were able to pick winners better than their friends, family, coworkers, or 9 million people in the ESPN pool.
 |
| A Cardinal celebration! |
It is estimated that there is almost as much money bet on the tournament as the total take from all the Sports Books in Las Vegas in any given year. This isn’t anything surprising, as Vegas knows they only handle a very small percentage of the total money gambled in this country every year.
What’s different about March Madness is that it "infects" people from all over the country in ways that go beyond the Super Bowl. People that would never bet on a football game will pony up $1.00 to $10.00 to $100 or more and fill out their brackets to pick their college team to win, simply because they are playing, or pick the school close to where they live because they are in the tourney, and may win, no matter how lousy the odds.
In some ways it’s not unlike those big Super Bowl charts that are cut into 100 squares, and you buy a square or 2, for a dollar or 20 dollars. Then, someone randomly draws numbers out of a hat or a bowl, and you get some combination of numbers that will win you money if any end of quarter scores in the game ends in 5 and 2, 0 and 7,or 8 and 5.
I have known and/or heard of folks using intuition, deep knowledge of the teams, flip of the coin, fiercest mascot, team colors, cutest cheerleaders?
So, how does a person win money in one of these things?
I have some theories that I have honed and refined over the years while participating in, and winning money in NCAA pools, and the basic 3-part formula is really very simple:
Part #1 – Don’t try to out run the bear.
Question: Okay, what the hell does that mean?
Answer: Have you heard the story about the two guys hiking in the woods when they spot a grizzly bear nearby? One guy says to the other, "What do we do the bear starts chasing us?" The other guy says, "We run." The first guy says, "Don’t be stupid, we can’t out run the bear." And the other guy answers, "Don’t you be stupid, I don’t have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you."
 |
| You can't out run me. |
What I am saying is based on the pool you are in, don’t try to out run the bear, just out run the guy running next to you. You won’t need to be perfect or close to perfect like someone trying to win the 9,000,000+ entry ESPN pool.
So, the strategy is to get into a pool that will have a reasonable number of entries, say 100 or so, at $10 a pop. Try to find one where a fair percentage of the entries will be from people with little or no knowledge of the game. I am speaking about folks who’ll ante up money for their 6-year old daughter or their blind, old, invalid Auntie Fanny. There are also those that got in because dear old alma mater South Framagassit State won their conference tourney, and they are now certain that the old Puce & Jade Swamp Foxes will go to the Final 4.
Part #2 - Use the "Rule of 8"
This used to be the Rule of 9, but that was about 4 or 5 years ago, before so many of the top college players started jumping to the NBA after one year. This has opened up the tournament to mid-major schools (often) with junior and senior laden teams that are experienced and poised enough to advance 3 or even 4 rounds, {See Butler (twice) VCU, Wichita State, George Mason}
The Rule of 9 stated: Pick a Final 4 with teams whose total seeding added up to 9 or less. Problem is now that 3 of the last 4 years the sum of the Final 4 seeds has been 18, 9, 26, and 13. Things are changing, and it’s more likely that we’ll continue to see an 8 or higher seeded team make it to the Final 4.
I have revised my parameters to the Rule of 8, which states:
Have 3 of the 4 teams in the Final 4 with seeds that add up to 8 or less. In the 30 years that the field has been 64 or more teams that has occurred 26 out of 30 times, or 86.6%.
There is actually nothing wrong with picking all four #1 seeds to get to the Final 4, even though it’s only happened one time. The most important pick you will make is who will win the championship? In the last 30 years, 90% of the time, a top 3 seed has won it. 19 #1 seeds, four #2’s, and four #3’s. If you must pick as team other than a #1 seed, pick a 2 or a 3, but don’t cry when they don’t win it. #1-seeds have won 63.3% of the time, including 7 of the last 9 years.
Part #3 – Submit multiple entries
Most friendly pools allow folks to submit at least three entries, and if they don’t, you can always put one in for grandpa, or your 4-year old. If you can’t influence them, just forge their signature and send it in anyway. Seriously, I am not saying you should cheat the rules of the pool, just find one that will allow you multiple entries. I will always submit at least 3-sheets in a 50-entry pool, and 4 or 5 in a pool with around 100. Roughly 5% of the entries should be yours. Trust me, if you follow the above three guidelines you will win some money within a year or 3.
So, how did I do this year?
In a pool of 56 entries (at $10 per entry) I submitted four. I won 3rd place and $112. I had Louisville winning it, but I barely edged out the 4th place entry on the tiebreaker (which was picking the tourney champ), and needed Louisville to win last night.
 |
| Great game lads, great game. |
My lovely wife Susan submitted 2 entries. Her first sheet had Louisville winning it all. Louisville was the most popular choice to win, named on 16 of all the entries. I nudged her to fill out another sheet, and when she handed it to me, I looked immediately to see who she had picked to win it, and here was Louisville again.
"Susan," I asked, "you really want to pick Louisville again?"
"Yes Charlie, I don’t have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you."
Guess what, that was the winning entry.
 |
| I caught you. |
Smart lady, and today she is $280 richer too.
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Kershaw or Koufax? I’ll take Pedro.
There’s an old baseball story that I love, though it’s more than likely apocryphal. The story I heard was that (66-year old) Rogers Hornsby was in Florida in the spring of 1962 as a coach for Casey
 |
| Hit better than .400 over 5 years. |
Casey thought for a few seconds and said, "I don’t know probably around .320 or so."
"Only .320 Casey, isn’t that a knock against the players from back then?"
"Well, " Casey said, "you gotta allow for him being 66 years old, doncha?"
A couple of days ago there was a story that drew comparisons between 2011 National League Cy Young award winner, LA Dodger Clayton Kershaw, and a former Dodger, 3-time Cy Young award winner, and Hall of Famer, Sandy Koufax.
 |
| One day, he may be better than Sandy? |
I guess the comparison was inevitable because they are similarly built and dominant left-handed flame-throwers, but that’s where the comparison ends. And how can we really compare two pitchers whose careers are separated by 45 years?
 |
| "The left hand of God" |
We can do this because it’s what baseball fans have always done – holding never-ending and pointless arguments about who is/was/will be better is life blood to the game.
So, lets talk about Kershaw and Koufax, then I will tell you why Montreal Expo and Boston Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martinez was probably the best pitcher to ever play major league baseball.
The voluble and accessible Kershaw was born in Dallas, just turned 25 in March, and has already enjoyed 4 excellent seasons. The minimum MLB salary for 2013 is $490.000. Kershaw will make about $7.5 million this year
The private and always soft-spoken Koufax was born in Brooklyn, and didn’t have his first good season with the Dodgers until 1961, when he was 25 years old. He had been used sparingly after being signed as a 19-year old "Bonus Baby" out of high school. MLB rules at the time (1955) demanded that any player signed to a bonus of $50,000 or more must spend 2-years with his major league team or become a free agent. Counting his bonus, in Sandy’s career, he earned about $481,000, total.
During Sandy’s first 6 seasons he was 36-40, with an ERA over 4.0, and walked about half as many batters as he struck out, walking around 100 batters in 3 different seasons.
Then, beginning in 1961 it all began to click, and Koufax won 18 games, lowered his ERA to 3.5, and led the majors (by 48) in strikeouts.
In 1962, the Dodgers led the NL almost all the way, but Koufax (who led the league in ERA, and struck out 4 for every walk) got hurt, and the Giants caught LA, beat them (and Sandy) in a playoff, and went on the World Series.
After that, Sandy was simply the best pitcher in baseball for 4 straight seasons. During these 4 years Koufax averaged 25 wins, 8 shutouts, 22 complete games, 298 innings, and 307 strikeouts, with a 1.86 ERA.
In those four seasons Sandy Koufax won 3 Cy Young awards and one Most Valuable Player. He missed about 12 starts in 1964 and still finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting after winning 19 games and leading the league in ERA. It doesn’t take much of an argument to say the Dodgers would have won 5 straight NL pennants had Koufax not been hurt in 1962 & 1964.
Koufax was better in the World Series, with an ERA of 0.95, and 61 strikeouts in 57 innings, though his won/lost record was only 4-3.
Koufax felt he had no choice but to retire after the 1966 season, as his left arm had been giving almost unrelenting pain from a traumatic arthritic condition in his elbow for more than 2 years. He was 30 years old.
 |
| At 77, you look great Sandy. |
So, Clayton Kershaw already has a nice head start in years on Sandy, but he will have to produce at least 3 or 4 more years like the last 2 he’s had, to get into the conversation. He may, he may not. He absolutely has the talent to do so.
Sandy Koufax was the best I ever saw, or so I thought.
In recent years we have found out about all the cheating that was going on for about 10-years (1993-2003) or so with PED usage in sports, and particularly in MLB. Record amounts of runs and home runs were being accumulated by dozens of hitters, and more dozens of records were falling every year.
Back in the final 5 years of Koufax’s career (1962 to 1966), the National League’s average ERA’s were: 3.97; 3.63; 3.63; 3.46; 3.44.
Koufax was anywhere from 1.42 to 1.79 better than the league average during those 5 seasons, which is truly outstanding.
If we take Pedro Martinez’s 7 year run from 1997 through 2003, in the dead heart of the "steroid era," Pedro beat the average ERA is his league by: 3.04; 1.77; 2.80; 3.18; 2.08; 2.21, and 2.31, which is truly astounding!
 |
| Was Martinez really better than Koufax? |
I am not so naïve to think Martinez was clean of PED’s during this time, but he was a pretty slight guy at 5’11" and 170, and after tossing 233.2 innings in 1998 (his first in the AL) he never had more than 217 in any season. Martinez was 25 years old in 1997, when he started his fantastic 7-year run, just as Koufax was 25 in 1962. Pedro always seemed to be getting rested a bit more than one might expect, and only had 21 complete games in the six years after 1997. As stated earlier, Sandy averaged 22 complete games a year in his last 4 seasons. I don’t know, maybe Pedro was using something, maybe not, but if he was, why weren’t the other pitchers of the era following suit? Why don’t we see more numbers like Martinez put up from other starting pitchers during those years?
Another piece of information tells us that in Koufax’s final 4 seasons, the league average runs-scored per-team was around 4 per game.
In Pedro’s six seasons from 1998 through 2003, the league averaged 5-runs or better three times, and 4.8 or better in the other three seasons. Martinez did not have the luxury, as Koufax did, of facing the opposing pitcher as a batter 1-4 times per game.
Pedro matched Sandy’s 3 Cy Young awards, and though he never managed to win an MVP, he did finish second once, and fifth one other time. He also had two second-place and one third-place in the Cy Young balloting.
Pedro matches Sandy with 3 ERA titles and 3 times leading in strikeouts. Pedro had a higher strikeout-per-inning ratio than Sandy, but it the MLB average in that department has been going up steadily for decades. Both men had similar and excellent WHIP’s (walks+hits/innings).
Koufax hit a total of 18 men with a pitch in his career. Sometimes it seemed as though Martinez hit that many in a month, and actually had 6 seasons in which he hit 10 or more batters, but only twice during his 7-year run of excellence. Part of Pedro’s success has to be attributed to his brush back pitch, and his willingness to throw at a batter. Koufax left that stuff to teammate Don Drysdale. Sandy would just snap off one of his patented 12-to-6 curveballs and strike a guy out.
 |
| "Down goes Zimmer!" Zim was Sandy's teammate for 4 years. |
So, in that respect, I have to give the nod to Pedro.
I don’t know how Sandy would fare today, pitching in the majors. If I had to guess, he only win 15-18 a year, and strike out somewhere around 220 in 210 innings, with an ERA in the 2.75 range. Very good, but not great.
 |
| The "Rajah." |
Okay, hold it, before any of you Sandy Koufax fans get all riled up and mad at me please remember that I have always been a big fan of his too, and that Sandy is 77-years old.
And Rogers has been dead for 50 years, and could still hit .315.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
