So it was a great game Monday night, wasn’t it? Over all #1 seed Louisville beats Michigan, and the "madness" ends with a shower of cash for those folks that were able to pick winners better than their friends, family, coworkers, or 9 million people in the ESPN pool.
 |
| A Cardinal celebration! |
It is estimated that there is almost as much money bet on the tournament as the total take from all the Sports Books in Las Vegas in any given year. This isn’t anything surprising, as Vegas knows they only handle a very small percentage of the total money gambled in this country every year.
What’s different about March Madness is that it "infects" people from all over the country in ways that go beyond the Super Bowl. People that would never bet on a football game will pony up $1.00 to $10.00 to $100 or more and fill out their brackets to pick their college team to win, simply because they are playing, or pick the school close to where they live because they are in the tourney, and may win, no matter how lousy the odds.
In some ways it’s not unlike those big Super Bowl charts that are cut into 100 squares, and you buy a square or 2, for a dollar or 20 dollars. Then, someone randomly draws numbers out of a hat or a bowl, and you get some combination of numbers that will win you money if any end of quarter scores in the game ends in 5 and 2, 0 and 7,or 8 and 5.
I have known and/or heard of folks using intuition, deep knowledge of the teams, flip of the coin, fiercest mascot, team colors, cutest cheerleaders?
So, how does a person win money in one of these things?
I have some theories that I have honed and refined over the years while participating in, and winning money in NCAA pools, and the basic 3-part formula is really very simple:
Part #1 – Don’t try to out run the bear.
Question: Okay, what the hell does that mean?
Answer: Have you heard the story about the two guys hiking in the woods when they spot a grizzly bear nearby? One guy says to the other, "What do we do the bear starts chasing us?" The other guy says, "We run." The first guy says, "Don’t be stupid, we can’t out run the bear." And the other guy answers, "Don’t you be stupid, I don’t have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you."
 |
| You can't out run me. |
What I am saying is based on the pool you are in, don’t try to out run the bear, just out run the guy running next to you. You won’t need to be perfect or close to perfect like someone trying to win the 9,000,000+ entry ESPN pool.
So, the strategy is to get into a pool that will have a reasonable number of entries, say 100 or so, at $10 a pop. Try to find one where a fair percentage of the entries will be from people with little or no knowledge of the game. I am speaking about folks who’ll ante up money for their 6-year old daughter or their blind, old, invalid Auntie Fanny. There are also those that got in because dear old alma mater South Framagassit State won their conference tourney, and they are now certain that the old Puce & Jade Swamp Foxes will go to the Final 4.
Part #2 - Use the "Rule of 8"
This used to be the Rule of 9, but that was about 4 or 5 years ago, before so many of the top college players started jumping to the NBA after one year. This has opened up the tournament to mid-major schools (often) with junior and senior laden teams that are experienced and poised enough to advance 3 or even 4 rounds, {See Butler (twice) VCU, Wichita State, George Mason}
The Rule of 9 stated: Pick a Final 4 with teams whose total seeding added up to 9 or less. Problem is now that 3 of the last 4 years the sum of the Final 4 seeds has been 18, 9, 26, and 13. Things are changing, and it’s more likely that we’ll continue to see an 8 or higher seeded team make it to the Final 4.
I have revised my parameters to the Rule of 8, which states:
Have 3 of the 4 teams in the Final 4 with seeds that add up to 8 or less. In the 30 years that the field has been 64 or more teams that has occurred 26 out of 30 times, or 86.6%.
There is actually nothing wrong with picking all four #1 seeds to get to the Final 4, even though it’s only happened one time. The most important pick you will make is who will win the championship? In the last 30 years, 90% of the time, a top 3 seed has won it. 19 #1 seeds, four #2’s, and four #3’s. If you must pick as team other than a #1 seed, pick a 2 or a 3, but don’t cry when they don’t win it. #1-seeds have won 63.3% of the time, including 7 of the last 9 years.
Part #3 – Submit multiple entries
Most friendly pools allow folks to submit at least three entries, and if they don’t, you can always put one in for grandpa, or your 4-year old. If you can’t influence them, just forge their signature and send it in anyway. Seriously, I am not saying you should cheat the rules of the pool, just find one that will allow you multiple entries. I will always submit at least 3-sheets in a 50-entry pool, and 4 or 5 in a pool with around 100. Roughly 5% of the entries should be yours. Trust me, if you follow the above three guidelines you will win some money within a year or 3.
So, how did I do this year?
In a pool of 56 entries (at $10 per entry) I submitted four. I won 3rd place and $112. I had Louisville winning it, but I barely edged out the 4th place entry on the tiebreaker (which was picking the tourney champ), and needed Louisville to win last night.
 |
| Great game lads, great game. |
My lovely wife Susan submitted 2 entries. Her first sheet had Louisville winning it all. Louisville was the most popular choice to win, named on 16 of all the entries. I nudged her to fill out another sheet, and when she handed it to me, I looked immediately to see who she had picked to win it, and here was Louisville again.
"Susan," I asked, "you really want to pick Louisville again?"
"Yes Charlie, I don’t have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you."
Guess what, that was the winning entry.
 |
| I caught you. |
Smart lady, and today she is $280 richer too.
No comments:
Post a Comment