NFL PLayoffs -- The "Smart" Money

If you care to scroll down to last week's Blog titled "$5000.00 to Bet on the NFL" and did some math, you could see that I am down $1140 from last week, and it was the Broncos upsetting the Steelers that did most of the damage.

I took the Steelers straight in that game, meaning I wasn't giving points, just betting the Money Line,  or odds.  I gave 4:1 on $500, which meant I lost $2000.  It was good that I hit all bets on the New Orleans game, and won $1560, including a parlay, to help offset the beat down I took when the Pittsburgh secondary bit on the run-fake in OT.

Isn't it funny how one can be so certain of a game on Saturday (Saints over Lions) and win, and almost as sure about a game on the following Sunday, and lose?

Yeah, it's hilarious.  But you know, I had plenty of company on the Pittsburgh bet.  Word is the handle (total money bet on the game) world-wide was over a billion dollars!  A ton of it was on Pittsburgh straight, or giving anywhere from 8 to 10 points, but word out of Las Vegas was that the smart money was taking Denver and the points, and the wise guys cleaned up.  We dumb-asses got clobbered.

This week, I am putting almost all my dollars into one bet, which $1000 on New England to win, and I am laying 7.5:1, which means I win a thousand if New England wins, but I lose $7500 if they don't.  That would also mean I am done betting for the season.

Smart money is also taking San Francisco +3.5-points, while the general public can't bet enough on the Saints, who are now the flavor of the week to win the Super Bowl.  I hear that this game marks only the second time a home team has been an underdog in a Divisional Playoff game.  The weather is supposed to be sunny with temps in the 60's for the game.

Smart money is also taking Denver +13.5-points.  Forecast is 20 degrees, breezy, and wind chill in single-digits.

For the record, my bets are:

$50 on San Francisco +3.5 over New Orleans
$50 on the Under (47) in that game
$50 on San Francisco to win, which pays $85

$50 on Denver +13.5 over New England
$50 on the Over (50) in that game
$1000 on New England to win, where I could lose $7500

I am also betting $100 on a parlay with New Orleans -3.5 and Over 47 points in the same game.  That pays $260 if I win both bets.

I was positive New Orleans was going to win last week.  Almost as positive about Pittsburgh to win.  There were no points to give, I just had to have teams win their damn games.

This week, I am almost as positive about New England winning as I was New Orleans.

Susan (who lost $1810 last week) was a bit more democratic in betting her money.  Susan's big picks are the Saints ($300) and Patriots ($400) to both win.  The rest are $50 bets, including a parlay of both Overs.

Tomorrow, we will hopefully have enough smart money left to make those two Sunday games a bit more interesting?