2012 Super Bowl – Deja vu all over again

Hangin' with the brothers

A few days before the NFL playoffs began, I picked the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers to meet in this year’s Super Bowl. The biggest reason why was because it would match the Harbaugh brothers coaching against one another for a second time. I figured that if nothing else, that would be a cool story.

Now that the conference finals are actually here, I am backing away from that pick the same way I would be if I had chosen New Orleans and Houston. I’m guessing that outside of a few hundred pre-teen boys from Texas towns like Katy, Sugar Land and Humble actually believed the Texans had a shot of getting there.

I did believe the New Orleans was the best team going into the playoffs – still do, for that matter. If Alex Smith had not done a Steve Young impression followed up by a Joe Montana look-alike, the Saints would be home favorites against the Giants, and the top pick to win their second Super Bowl.

When Denver upset the Pittsburgh it made New England’s path easier, and of course Baltimore had the easiest path, barely hanging on to a win versus a very depleted Texans team.

If you have listened to the pundits discuss these games, you’ve heard all the numbers and tendencies that factor in to which team they think will win, and how they’ll go about doing it.

Some of those facts or statistics are worthless, and some are invaluable. One states something to the effect that a team that scores 38 or more points in a playoff game fails to cover the spread in their next game about 85% of the time.

What does that mean? I mean I know what it says, but is that a reason to take Baltimore and the points? I know the Patriots are that team today (that scored plus 38), but can’t they be a team that falls into the 15% side of things, thus making that percentage nudge up a bit in future years?

Eli Manning has had a great season, and has been particularly effective in the 4^th quarter of a number of games. Manning and the Giants also have a bit of a history in winning playoff games on the road. Does that really mean anything today?

I started the playoffs with a make-believe total of $5000 to bet. To date, I have won 3 of my 4 big bets (winning $2000), while treading water on all my little ones (winning $40) to give me a total of $7040 going into today.

Betting numbers for the AFC Championship game

New England is a 7-point favorite

The over/under is 50-points

$100 on Baltimore earns you $250 if they win

$300 on New England earns you $100 if they win

What I see happening is not some sort of re-run of the last time these teams met at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs, when Ray Rice took it 83-yards on the first play from scrimmage, and it was 24-0 at the end of the quarter. I think the Patriots slow Rice down and force Joe Flacco to play catch-up, as I think the New England offensive line will give Tom Brady enough time to pass and ultimately score enough points to win the game.

In this game, there are two facts that I like:

1) The Ravens are not a very good road team, either in the regular season or the playoffs.

2) Joe Flacco has played in 8 playoff games. He has had only one good game, and that was against the Kansas City Chiefs.

I don’t think New England will fall outside of that 85% threshold after scoring more than 38 points last week. Meaning I would not give the 7-points in this game, but I don’t like the bet either way. I can see a 24-20 game, but can also see a 34-20 game. That means I don’t like either side of the over/under total of 50, even though my gut immediately told me the number would go over.

I feel pretty certain that the Patriots win this game, and giving 3-1 doesn’t faze me a bit after having already given 5-1, 7-1 and 7.5-1 in previous weeks.

I’ll wager $1000 on New England to win.

I’ll take Baltimore +7 points for $50.

I’ll take over 50 points for $50.

Patriots win 28-23.

Betting numbers for the NFC Championship game

San Francisco is a 2-point favorite.

The over/under is 41.5-points

$100 on New York earns you $115 if they win

$135 on San Francisco earns you $100 if they win

Candlestick Park(ing) lot

In the Giant – 49er game, weather is going to be a biggest factor, as it’s been raining in San Francisco for a couple of days, and the rain is supposed to continue all day today, with a steady wind of 10-15 MPH, and gusts up to 35.

It’s going to be a slog, which I think has to help San Francisco a bit more than New York, but not much. I think the fact that the Giants are the healthiest they been all year is the second biggest factor in this game. Having a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw teaming with Brandon Jacobs has changed what had been one of the NFL’s worst rushing attacks to a good one, and the Giants defensive line has played very well the last 3 weeks. I don’t see San Francisco scoring many points, and the Giants won’t do much better, but I think they’ll wring a win out of it.

I’ll wager $500 on the total being under 41.5.

I’ll take the Giants +2 for $100.

I’ll wager $300 on the Giants to win.

For my Parlay I’ll bet $200 and take over 50 in the Patriot/Raven game, and under 41.5 in the Giant/49er game.

Let's do it again

Giants win 19-13.

Of course if all of these picks blow up in my face, I will very quickly remind you all that I actually picked Baltimore and San Francisco to meet in the Super Bowl back in December.