NFL Playoffs, and the only “Sure Thing”

So, my big "bet" yesterday was $2000 on the Baltimore Ravens, which would have been a $3600 beat had they lost. I also sprayed the board with all kinds of minor bets, hitting most.

To date, I am up $2060, which is about how much Susan is down.

Of course you should remember this isn’t real money we are betting, it’s just for fun, and a way for me to somewhat prove that anyone can be right or wrong on these games, and often it’s a fluke that will beat you, or gain you a win.

One of the truths in betting football is that often there are no good bets – meaning there really isn’t an obvious win on the board – but so far in these playoffs I saw 4 sure things. All of them were bets on which team would win the game, against the Moneyline, meaning that I had to risk a lot of money to win.

My 4 sure things were:

Won $1000 when New Orleans beat Detroit – risking $7000.

Lost $2000 when Pittsburgh lost to Denver – trying to win $500.

Won $2000 when Baltimore beat Houston – risking $3600.

Won $1000 when New England beat Denver – risking $7500.

Hitting 75% is extremely difficult to do, just picking winners for a buck a piece, let alone risking a total loss of $20,100 to win a bit more than 2-grand. If I had lost one of those other bets I would have gotten creamed

The early lines on next weekend’s games have the Patriots at home and a 7.5 favorite against the Ravens, and the Giants a 2.5 underdog at San Francisco.

To win $1000 on New England, one would have to wager $3200.

To win $1000 on San Francisco, one would need to risk $1400.

I have no idea which teams win next weekend, though I am leaning towards taking both underdogs and the favorable side of the Moneyline for small dollars.

So what is the Sure Thing?

In Las Vegas, there are all kinds of bets one can make on any game. From how many passes Tim Tebow would complete versus the Patriots (the over/under was 11.5), to how many rushing yards Ray Rice would gain against Houston. These are called Prop (proposition) bets, and there are 20, 30, or more for each game.

Best bet?

If San Francisco wins the opening coin flip versus the Giants, they will defer.

Bet the house. It’s not sexy or very exciting, but it’s the only sure thing.