$5,000.00 to Bet on the NFL

Every year for a number of years now, my wife Susan and I have a little contest to see which one of us can earn the most money betting on the NFL playoffs.

It’s all make-believe, we aren’t really each taking five-grand, and spraying the board, just having some fun, and giving us a rooting interest in every game.

Red, white and beautiful.

For the record, Susan (photo-right) is just as likely to beat me, as I am to beat her. That fact speaks to my main caveat regarding sports wagering, which is that 99% of the world can’t beat Vegas over a sustained period of time with enough consistency to make it pay.

We "bet" each of the 11 NFL playoff games three different ways:

Which team will win, on the Money Line?

Which team will cover the Point Spread?

Will the two teams point total be Over or Under the number?

This year, we are also betting one Parlay for each day of play, which will be 6 or 7?

We have to bet each game all three ways and the parlay with a minimum $50 bet.

In the Cincinnati at Houston game yesterday, we both took a beating when we took the Bengals to win, but at least Susan bet over 38 points on the total, so she won that bet.

So, going into last night’s game, Susan had one right and two wrong and she was down $210.

I was 0-3, and because I bet more than her I was down $630.

Well, not too awful, considering I still had $4370 left, right?

Bet now!  Damn it!  NOW!!!

"Uh oh," I thought, as in the second game I took New Orleans on the Money Line, and bet $1000. If they had lost, it would have cost $7000, and I’d have been wiped out after the first two games, and hitchhiking home from Vegas with a miserable ache in my gut and a promissory note in my pocket.

I don’t know why I felt so sure New Orleans would win, but I did. They were 8-0 at home for the season, and 8-0 at home versus the spread. Considering the Lions couldn’t stop Matt Flynn from throwing 6 TD passes, I figured it would be a breeze for Brees to be great, and for the Saints to win.

If I learned anything about sports wagering in the years when I was very actively engaged in that pursuit it was that you can’t let odds determine where you put your money. You also should only bet the games or propositions that you have the most confidence in.

I ended up sweeping the board in the late game, winning all three bets plus winning my parlay. I was plus $1560, which meant I am plus $930 overall, going into today’s games.

Susan made a comeback too, even though she lost her parlay, and Detroit +10.5 points. She won the Over/Under and her straight (Money Line) bet on the Saints. She is only down $10 going into today.

So, today I am betting the following:

I am taking Atlanta +3 points over New York for $50.00.

I am taking over 47.5 points in the Atlanta/New York game for $100.00.

I am betting $310 on the Giants to win, which would earn me $200.00.

Total, in this game, I could win as much as $350.00, and lose as much as $475.00.

I am taking Denver +8 points over Pittsburgh for $50.00.

I am taking under 33.5 points in the Pittsburgh/Denver game for $50.00.

I am betting $2000.00 on Pittsburgh to win, which would earn me $500.00.

Leaving Vegas the hard way.

Total, in this game, I could win as much as $600.00, and lose as much as $2100.00.

For my parlay (which pays 13:5), I am taking New York –3 and Pittsburgh –8 for $100.00, which would earn me $260.00.

A part of me is also betting that Susan does better than I do.