The Baseball Crank: In the "Black" with Big Blue?

Back on January 8 I started writing about having $5000.00 to bet on the NFL Playoffs, and have been chronicling every bet since that time.

I am bucks up

To date, I am up $3780.00 in the endeavor, which is not as remarkable as it may otherwise appear. When I look at the past bets and consider that aside from Denver’s upset of Pittsburgh, where I lost $2000, the games on which I had large wagers weren’t hard for me to predict.

The big winners have been:

$1000 on New Orleans over Detroit

$1000 on New England over Denver

$2000 on Baltimore over Houston

$1000 on New England over Baltimore

$500 on the under of 41.5-points in the Giant/49er game

The rest of my bets have been of the nickel/dime type, and I have won a bit more than I have lost, which brings me to this evening’s game.

Betting numbers for the Super Bowl

New England is a 2.5-point favorite

The over/under is 54-points

$100 on New York earns you $120 if they win

$140 on New England earns you $100 if they win

So, what’s going to happen?

Scouts, Inc. ranks all 106 players in the game in order of value and importance, and 8 of the top 12 are New England Patriots, but the next 9 players are New York Giants. That means that 13 of the top 21 will be playing for New York.

Critically, Rob Gronkowski is #3 on the list, and we have heard endless speculation on whether he’ll be able to play effectively, or even play at all? I think the easiest wager of the day is that Gronkowski will be active, and he’ll be in the game early and often. The key is will he be able to make sharp cuts off that high-ankle sprain, and everything I have heard and read has said that it’s doubtful he’ll be able to do so? Halftime could be critical for Gronkowski too, as not moving much on that ankle for the extended (30-minutes) period of time won’t make things better.

Look for Brady to get crunched

I would look for Tom Brady to try and hit Gronk with some passes early on to try to set the Giants up for him being a decoy. If the Patriots are able to do that, look for Brady to hone in on Aaron Hernandez on short out patterns. The Giants crowd the middle of the field defensively as well as any team in the NFL, and should be able to take most of that away from New England. This should also negate many of those short slants and drag routes over the middle to Wes Welker.

It’s obvious that the Patriots will need to slow down the Giants pass rush, so being able to gain yards running the ball is a major factor. The metrics on Brady’s effectiveness under duress are much worse than other top NFL QB’s since he had the knee injury that knocked him out of the 2008 season. While no quarterbacks ‘like’ being hit, once a player gets seriously hurt, it does stick in his mind, and I think Brady "hears the footsteps" a lot more than Eli Manning does – this is a huge factor.

When the Giants have the ball I would look for more of a mix in running the ball than we saw them use in San Francisco. I couldn’t figure out why the went almost exclusively to Ahmad Bradshaw two weeks ago, especially in the second half, when Brandon Jacobs could have been in the game pounding away? In retrospect, I think it was a function of how well the 49ers tackle, and Jacobs (who is not a good pass receiver) would have been easier to catch and bring down, than the speedier Bradshaw. I don’t think this will be the case today, and if the game is close in the last 20 minutes or so, look for Jacobs to get a lot of calls.

Manningham TD's today?

Potentially, I think the most critical match-up in the game will be Mario Manningham for the Giants, and Julius Edelman, trying to cover him one-on-one, for New England. I expect to see a lot of 3 wide receiver sets with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Manningham, and the Patriots can’t double-team all three. If Giant tight end Jake Ballard steps up with a big game, the Giants could put up a lot of points.

I don’t see this game being a track meet – it won’t be a 41-35 type of game, as the Giants defense got healthy as the playoffs began, and the Patriots defense is much improved. I don’t expect a rout either, but if it does get away from either team, I think it’ll be the Giants that run up the score, especially if the Giants D-line can hit Brady early.

Immediately after the Giants beat San Francisco I knew that New York was the better team, so I was a bit surprised that the Patriots were favored by 3.5-points.

In two weeks that number had dropped a point, which tells us that most of the early money came in on New York. The over/under dropped a point as well, meaning the under was getting most of the money.

Early on and seemingly up until a few days ago, a healthy majority of informed opinion seemed to be picking New York to win, but that majority is no longer as healthy as it was. To me, that’s a good thing, as I have little faith in public perception, and now that it appears that New England is the smart pick, I will remain steady and pick the better team to win the game.

I will put $2000 on the Giants to win.

I’ll take 2.5 points and the Giants for $100.

I’ll bet under 54-total points for $100.

I’ll parlay New York +2.5 and over 54-points for $100.