So there’s been that, and between prepping for playing in 6 fantasy baseball leagues (3 of which I am in charge of), running a NCAA hoops pool (barely out of the money – and I mean barely), I’ve hardly had the time for this stuff.
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| Corona, hot or cold |
As far as this years MLB menu, it looks as though we will have some tasty items to consume, with the best being 5 nice division races (all but the AL Central), and a much improved wild card set up. The latter is a great move by MLB, adding one more wild card team, and having the two in each league play one game to get in the playoff mix. It’s kinda like being the Vermont Catamount men’s basketball team – one of those 65-68 seeded teams that needed to do a little extra to get into the bigger dance. At least now winning a division means something important, and those six teams can grab a day or two of rest, and not burn a top starting pitcher just to get "in." You know, kinda like spending $20 just to get inside the club, and then only having another $10 to buy drinks?
Anyway, here we go with the prognostications, and capsule summary of what looks to happen this season in the American League:
AL EAST
Remember last year when everyone picked Boston to win it all? Then the Sox get off to a 2-8 start and folks were edging towards the ledge all along Beacon Street, because you know the season was lost. Then, by the end of August, Boston has the best record in baseball and the sun is shining gloriously bright.
But you know, the brightest hour is always just before you get struck by lightning.
I hear some of the pundits say "Well, this is essentially the same Boston team that had the best record in baseball on September 1, 2011…" I have heard myself say the same thing, which really sucks, as that means I am talking to myself, but more importantly is the statement really isn’t true at all.
The Yankees, Tampa Bay and Toronto have all markedly improved, and Baltimore can be a lot better if they ever get any starting pitching worth more than a middling AAA roster.
The New York Yankees add Hiroki Kuroda, and a revived Phil Hughes to a rotation with Sabathia, Nova, and Garcia that almost makes me want to an "a" to Hughes and make Hughesa, but I wouldn’t know how to pronounce it. The bullpen is better with Soriano back, and with Raul Ibanez providing a nice lefty bat at DH, all the Yankees need is reasonable health. Look for Eduardo Nunez to get a lot of playing time spelling A-Rod and Jeter, and watch how New York hardly skips a beat when he does.
Tampa Bay has the best group of starting pitchers in all MLB and a lot of players for Joe Maddon to mix and match in a line up that leads off Desmond Jennings, the new and improved version of Carl Crawford. Ben Zobrist is solid, Carlos Pena is back, and Luke Scott was added for all the Florida right-wing wackos to love. The stud is Evan Longoria, the best ‘true’ third baseman in baseball.
It seems that Toronto is the sexy pick to find enough money to get into the dance, and it’s hard to argue with their offense not having enough, but past Ricky Romero and maybe Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez, the pitching doesn’t have a sexy shape. Too many questions on this team that need to have great answers, like will Rasmus. Lind, and Lawrie consolidate sills and become solid and productive hitters?
Two years ago Baltimore had what looked to be a nice crop of young starting pitchers in Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Britton. Baltimore traded staff anchor Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado for Jason Hammell, which is like jumping from the Titanic to the Louisitania, and signed a nice Japanese pitcher named Tsuyoshi Wada who the O’s put on the DL about 5 days ago. Now, we have a nice crapshoot of a pitching staff, and a group of hitters that looks pretty good but stagnant. I do like (catcher) Matt Wieters chances to really break out with a great year, and become the stud so many of us thought he’d already be?
So, back to Boston, and Valentine’s Folly? This is a good team, but no longer a great one, and more than any contender one that can’t suffer too many more injuries. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz will need to win a combined 50 games, leaving Valentine needing to find a way to win at least 42 or 43 more from some other guys like Daniel Bard, Felix Doubront, and hope old dudes like sweaty Vincente Padilla and meatball-tossing Aaron Cook have something to contribute. The bullpen will need to be good while they’re being over-used. I didn’t think the trade for Bailey was a good one – would’ve given the job to Bard instead of making him a starter, and the move trading Marco Scutaro to clear money in order to sign Roy Oswalt sure worked out, huh? I do like Cody Ross, he’s gamer with a swing geared to clear the Green Monster. He reminds me of what Nick Swisher is for New York, that earnest meathead-type that’s always positive and smiling, hitting .260 and a homer a week.
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| Matt Moore, the new Koufax? |
The finish
New York
Boston (wild card)
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore
AL CENTRAL
Detroit appears to be the only sure thing as a division winner to me, but it’s not because the Tiger are that good, just that the other guys are just average or bad. Alex Avila came out of nowhere last season as a excellent hitting catcher, which allowed Victor Martinez to DH. So VMart goes down, and the Tiger sign Prince Fielder, which when I boil it down is not that much of an upgrade. Martinez is a better hitter overall, even if he’s way behind Prince as a home run hitter, and Miguel Cabrera at third base will prove to be a defensive disaster. I also look for Jose Valverde to implode, and Doug Fister to go back to being a mediocre pitcher. Beyond Avila and Austin Jackson in center field, this is a bad defensive team. Cabrera and Fielder are the stars, and Boesch, Young, Rayburn and Peralta are good hitters. Of course we have Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer is an ace-starting pitcher disguised as an under-achiever. That said, I make Detroit no better than the 6th best team in the AL.
Cleveland appears to be improving, but has no pitching to be very optimistic about. Are any of us Ubaldo Jiminez fans? I like Justin Masterson, but with Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, and Jeanmar Gomez rounding things out, it could mean a lot of teams rounding the bases versus the Indians this year. Brantley (CF), Choo (RF), Kipnis (2B), Cabrera (SS), and Santana (C) are very nice offensive players which also gives Cleveland good defense up the middle. If only Grady Sizemore hadn’t had has body completely break, and Travis Hafner had been able to not follow Sizemore…and I think about what if CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee had stayed and Rocky Colavito hadn’t been traded…
The White Sox lose a great manager in (my main man) Ozzie Guillen, who never lost a fight, and gain a nice guy who never managed in Robin Ventura, who lost the one fight he’s ever had to an old dude from Texas. I have no idea what that means other than that Ozzie knew it was time to go – I think his message wore thin in Chicago, and I still think that the team has the most potential in the division to actually give the Tigers a run. A couple of nice players in Alexi Ramirez at short and Paul Konerko at first, and two guys in Adam Dunn (DH) and Alex Rios (RF) that just need to have average years to give the offense a nice boost. The pitching is decent at the worst, and there are some very nice young arms in Chris Sale, Addison Reed, Phil Humber, and Hector Santiago.
Minnesota looks to be a disaster this year, and maybe Ron Gardenhire will lose whatever magic he had all those years, guiding a steady pace to the post-season? It was ugly last year, with both Mauer and Morneau out, Capps then Nathan blowing up the bullpen, and a series of neer-do-well starting pitchers led by the blackmail-proof Carl Pavano. Francisco Liriano appears to be the American League’s answer to the Marlin’s Ricky Nolasco – you know, a guy with all the tools that sucks you in with 3 great starts, then does a dumpster fire impression in 2 straight outings? Plus, Mike Cuddyer went to Colorado and Jason Kubel to Arizona. Make no mistake, this is the worst team in the American League, and I am including Oakland and Seattle.
Kansas City is a team on the rise, and I know I have said that the last two years, but this year I mean it…again, just like I meant it the last two years. Even with the great closer Joakim Soria down for the season, the Royals have great options beyond the big donkey Jonathan Broxton. Aaron Crow, Greg Holland and Tim Collins in the bullpen are very talented, and getting starter Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants was a nice move. Former #1 (overall 2006) pick Luke Hochevar looks to break out this year, and maybe the #3 2007 pick Danny Duffy will take the next step too? Billy Butler is a excellent hitter, and Eric Hosmer (1B) will be an all star for many years. If former #1 pick (#2 overall in 2005) Alex Gordon can come close to repeating 2011, and Mike Moustakas (3B) begins to live up to hype the team will be a lot better, Alcides Escobar (SS) is great defensively and may steal 30, as is Lorenzo Cain in center. If those two gain patience and get some walks, the Royals will score some runs. That said, any team with Bruce Chen as it’s #1 starting pitcher has no shot at post-season.
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| Eric Hosmer, the new Brett? |
The finish
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City
Cleveland
Minnesota
AL WEST
The 2-time defending American League champions are the Texas Rangers, and how cool is that, not to have either New York or Boston filling that role? Anyone paying attention could see this building a few years ago and right now they have the best hitting team in baseball. There isn’t an easy out in the line up, and the team defense is excellent, once we get past the outfield adventures of Nelson Cruz. Colby Lewis anchors the rotation, backed by 4 very talented kids in Derek Holland (25 years old) , Matt Harrison (26), Neftali Feliz (21), and the latest (and greatest?) Japanese import, Yu Darvish (25). I am not sold on Darvish, as aside from Kuroda, and one great season by Dice-K, can anyone name another successful MLB starting pitcher from Japan? And no, Hideki Nomo does not count.
Seattle does have Ichrio, but he doesn’t pitch, and based on last season, his days as a top hitter are in the past, so naturally Seattle moves him into the 3-hole in the line up, where all those tapped grounders will work really well. If Chone Figgins can come farther back from the dead than Adam Dunn, and Dustin Ackley continues to look like a nice hitter, Ichrio may have someone to drive in, and set the table for Justin Smoak. Smoak, if you recall, was Eric Hosmer before we actually had Eric Hosmer. Seattle traded prime (starting pitcher) talent Miguel Pineda to the Yankees for prime (hitting) talent Jesus Montero, and early returns favor Seattle here, with Pineda hurting. Past that…not much, but there is still a guy named Felix Hernandez pitching out there, and he’s still only 26 years old.
The Oakland Moneyballers seem to have lost their muse, and now, with the exception of Coco "Disabled List" Crisp are forgoing all those creaky old Frank Thomas/Hideki Matsui/Gabe Gross/Jason Giambi type players for kids. Problem is these kids don’t look that good, but maybe Cespedes, Weeks, Allen and Reddick will live up to the hype. If not, about 8 weeks from now, we may get one more dose of creaky when Manny Ramirez will be eligible to play? I hope not, too much like a bad movie I’ve seen too often. Meanwhile, the pitching is very suspect, but Oakland plays in a pitcher’s park, so we’ll get to see bad pitching appear to look good and bad hitting look worse.
The Los Angeles Angels are my team to beat this season, and this is for all of baseball, not just what should prove to be the best division of all 6 in MLB, even with two crappy teams like Seattle and Oakland. It’s not just Pujols either, it’s CJ Wilson, who keeps getting better and stronger, emerging ace Jered Weaver, long time under-appreciated ace Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana, perhaps the best #4 starter on any team this side of Tampa? The bull pen is fine, and the line up doesn’t have enough openings for all the good hitters. If Kendrys Morales makes it back even 75%, and Mark Trumbo can approach his 2011 numbers and play a decent third base, the Angels won’t need much more. Maybe Vernon Wells makes a bit of a comeback, but if not the Angels will be able to slide Bobby Abreu in once in a while, or just bring up the top hitting prospect in all of baseball in Mike Trout, and plop him into left. This is the best balanced and deepest team in baseball.
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| Me Tarzan, Yu Darvish, |
The finish
Los Angeles
Texas (wild card)
Seattle
Oakland
I hope to get to the National League in the next day or two.
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