Cincinnati Reds
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| Billy could steal 125+? |
Hello: Shin-Soo Choo
Goodbye: Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen,
Pleasant surprise player? Todd Frazier
Nice comeback player: Jonathan Broxton
Assuming noted pitcher-killer Dusty Baker doesn’t over-work his top two starting pitchers (Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto), and the team doesn’t suffer any major injuries, the Reds should ease into the post-season again. Choo is a sub-par centerfielder, and it should be about mid-season when top shortstop prospect Billy Hamilton has learned the nuances of outfield play to well enough to perhaps allow Choo to move to left?
Frazier could be a homer-hitting stud in the making at third, and even shortstop Zack Cozart may hit 20 in the cozy Great American Ballpark? Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips are All Stars, and the 3-5 guys in the rotation should be good enough.
Not a lot of team speed, and the defense isn’t great, but they’ll score a ton of runs.
Prediction: 1st Place
Moving Aroldis Chapman back to closer was the right move for this team for now, and it will allow Dusty to use his solid bullpen (Broxton, Sean Marshall and emerging star JJ Hoover) in lower-pressure roles.
St. Louis Cardinals
Team motto: Tony who?
Hello: Ty Wigginton
Goodbye: Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse
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| Who am I, what am I, why am I? |
Nice comeback player: Adam Wainwright
The consensus is that aside from Tampa Bay, the Cards have the deepest stock of pitching in MLB, which is why they could let Lohse walk away without a care. With Trevor Rosenthal throwing 100-MPH, Shelby Miller taking Lohse’s spot, and Mitch Boggs taking over the closer role while Jason Motte is on the DL, St. Louis may have the best pitching in the NL this side of Washington and Atlanta.
The Cards also have a young hitter named Oscar Taveras who emerged last year as a Vlade Guerrero clone, according to all reports. He is one (more) Carlos Beltran injury away from being in a fairly good line up. The problem for the Cards is keeping two of their best hitters, David Freese and Allen Craig, on the field. Both always seem to be battling some kind of injury.
Matt Holiday and Yadier Molina are stars, but it’s critical that Matt Carpenter’s transition to second base works, and that shortstop Pete Kozma can handle MLB pitching.
Prediction: 2nd Place
This club always seems to find a way to get it done, but they will need Wainwright to come back and be the pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010 when he won 39 games, before TJS took him out for all of the 2011 season
Milwaukee Brewers
Team motto: Who needs a bullpen!
Hello: Kyle Lohse, Mike Gonzalez
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| Maybe this was what he used the PED's for? |
Pleasant surprise player? Jean Segura
Nice comeback player: Alex Gonzalez
The bullpen is still a mess unless John Axford finds a way out of the darkness. Maybe Mike Gonzalez (who has had some past success) will assume the role, though managers are not inclined to give lefties the role? They have some young pitchers in Wily Peralta, and Tyler Thornburg with potential, and 27-year old Mike Fiers that showed some skill last year. Might be worth giving Fiers a shot at the role if he continues to struggle in the rotation?
Losing first baseman Corey Hart until sometime in May, and his back up, Mat Gamel (for the season) hurts. Putting career shortstop Alex Gonzalez there is a gamble, but Gonzalez (himself out all of last season) has some pop in his bat, and is a veteran guy that will do a good job. They need a solid, full season out of Rickie Weeks, and strong follow up seasons from Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki. The catching is solid with John Lucroy and Martin Maldonado is a solid back up.
Prediction: 3rd Place
Hard to say if MLB will catch Ryan Braun this time around in a PED net, and can Aramis Ramirez keep producing at age 34? Yovani Gallardo still seems on the verge of being an ace, and Marco Estrada had some electric moments but has lacked consistency. Two many questions and not a lot of answers off the bench. If they stay healthy form here on out, and if most of the pitching comes through, this team can beat the Reds. That’s a lot of "ifs."
Pittsburgh Pirates
Team motto: Wait till next year…again!
Hello: Russell Martin, Mark Melancon
Goodbye: Joel Hanrahan, Eric Bedard
Pleasant surprise player? Starling Marte
Nice comeback player: Mark Melancon
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| It's up to you Pittsburgh, Peeeee Aaaaaa! |
Andrew McCutcheon is a super star, but there is little else worth getting excited about on the hitting side of things. Neal Walker is good, and they have some nice outfielders that may breakout in Marte, and Alex Presley, but wasn’t it only last year we were saying that about Jose Tabata?
Pedro Alvarez is a .235, 30-homer, 160-K hitter, and Garrett Jones should not be batting clean up in a MLB line up.
AJ "Can’t make it in New York but can do in Pittsburgh" Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are okay starters, but they are 3# or #4 guys really, and James McDonald’s great start to last year gave way to disaster down the stretch. Jason Grilli is the new closer, but I look for Melancon to come back (after his meltdown in Boston last year) and emerge as the closer at some point.
Prediction: 4th Place
There are a couple of nice pitching prospects (Gerrit Cole and James Taillon) that may be up early on, and it might be a good idea to get these guys in there soon? I don’t think team contends at all like the Pirates teams of 2011 and 2012, so why wait?
Chicago Cubs
Team motto: We’re better than Houston…oh wait…
Hello: Edwin Jackson, Carlos Villanueva, Scott Hairston
Goodbye: Ton Campana, Reed Johnson
Pleasant surprise player? Kyugi Fujikawa
Nice comeback player: David DeJesus
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| Wow, blew that one waaaaay up there! |
The Cubs, unlike the Pirates, are on their way up in the world, though they may still lose close to 100 games this season. If Matt Garza can come back soon, and Travis Wood continues to get better, those two and Jeff Samardzija along with Jackson form a nice 1-4 in the rotation.
Anthony Rizzo at firstbase is a home run hitting star in the making, and they’ll love this guy in Chicago. Starling Castro is already an All Star, and they’ve got a couple of kids named Jorge Soler and Javier Baez that aren’t too far way.
Carlos Marmol is not long for the closer spot. Look for Fujikawa to take it over early on, and save 5 heart Cub fan heart attacks a month.
Prediction: 5th Place
Hairston and DeJesus will platoon and should produce some very nice numbers. If Alfonso Soriano has one more year like 2012 in him, and Garza comes back strong, they are not far away from being a .500 team. It ain’t a World Series, but it’s the right start down the road to one.
Nickel recap:
It may seem like a cop out picking the divsion as I have, but it's hard to see any other scenario without a huge number of injuries to the Reds and Cards, or multiple strokes of good fortune for the Brewers? I could see Chicago challenging for third place if Milwaukee's pitching goes in the tank, and certainly St. Louis could win it, but over all, this was the easiest division for me to predict.
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