2011 World Series Odds

I'm a guy that has often liked to bet on sporting events through the many years. I'm always curious about baseball odds at various times, especially during the off season. The GM meetings may be over, but teams are constantly shuffling players on and off their 40-man rosters, trading, and trying to sign free agents.  If you check BoDog.com today, below you'd see these odds, that they have posted for the 15 teams they make out to be no worse than 30-1 to win 2011 World Series:

Phillies 3-1
Red Sox 5-1
Yankees 6-1
Giants 12-1
Twins 18-1
Rangers, Cardinals, Rays, and Rockies 20-1
Braves 22-1
White Sox, Angels, and Reds 25-1
Tigers 28-1
Dodgers 30-1

Some things jumped out at me right away.
The Giants being the 4^th favorite is a sucker bet. No team has repeated since 2000, and it won’t be San Francisco that breaks the streak. The magical ride they had last season never happens twice in a row. When Aubrey Huff and a rookie catcher (albeit a great one) are your #3 and #4 hitters, everything else needs to work just right. Remember that up until the day before the regular season ended, the Padres had been in first place in the NL West for almost the entire summer.

If you want a nice long shot to wager on out of this group, try the White Sox at 25-1. Yeah, I know I am on the record as a huge Ozzie Guillen guy, but I’m not saying this as a fan. I still like the Reds a little bit too, but now that Dusty has had some success, he’ll proceed to screw things up. Small bet on Reds winning it all, maybe?  Bigger bet on Dusty finishing below .500?  Maybe a better bet?

I think both LA teams are very bad bets, though the Angels might perk up if Artie Moreno ever opens his wallet?

Do you want a bigger long shot than 25-1? Right now, the Milwaukee Brewers at 60-1 are an interesting play to me. It’s not like St. Louis has done much to improve, and the Reds are vulnerable with all those kids playing such big roles, aren’t they Dusty?

I am usually pretty good at this sort of thing, though I reserve the right to change my mind at any time, and hedge my bets. I’ll go all in on any bets and predictions right around the beginning of the regular season, but right now, on futures picks, I’d put $100 on Chicago, and $50 on the Brewers.

In early April of 2009, I went on the record picking Cincinnati and Texas to win their divisions, and in April 2008, I was telling everyone watch out for Tampa Bay. I know I fanned on picking Arizona last year, and totally writing off San Diego, but everyone wrote off San Diego. I have picked against the Yankees for the last 10 years, and been correct 9 times. Aside from my family and my friends, little has made me happier than being right about this fact, 90% of the time.

Last, I like that the Washington Nationals at 65-1, are at lower odds than 7 other teams. All they need now is Shoeless Joe from Hannibal, MO, and I am laying down the cash!