"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." Bill Veeck

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Still (the) Greek to Them

It continues to amaze me that there are seemingly millions of people following sports that haven’t got a clue on how betting lines or odds are set for games.

I’d lay big odds* that 75% of the adults in this country who regularly watch NFL games have no idea how a betting service or a casino goes about setting the line, and why they set any specific number (or odds) on a game.

This is the line for the Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles NFL game tonight.

Houston       +8  (+300)   -115o  52
Philadelphia  -8   (-400)   -105u   52

I'd assume that at least 90% of the people that regularly watch NFL football know that in order to win a $5 bet with a friend while using the above line, the person taking the Eagles would have to “give 8 points” to the person taking Houston. The Eagles bettor needs to have Philly win by 9 or more, to win the bet. Take Houston and 8 points, and even if they lose by 7, you win. Philly by 8 and it’s a push.

Everyone knows all that stuff, right? Everyone knows what a “push” is on a bet? But what does all the other stuff mean?

I am going to conduct a small poll (or test) of folks I have contact with, and ask them some questions on the topic, and see what I get. I’ll try to gather answers from a good sample of folks. These are the questions I am going to be asking, and the points awarded for correct answers. 100 is an A. You need better than that for an A+. A score of 65 is needed to pass.

For 30 points:
What is a sports book’s objective when they set a point spread in a football game?

For 35 points:
What is the only reason why sports book’s care which team wins a game?

For 15-20 points:
In sports betting parlance, what do “juice” and “vig” mean?
One correct answer is worth 15 points. Two are worth 20 points.

For 15 points:
If someone had the ways and means to bet $100 on every NFL game in a season using the point spread from one specific sports book, what is the minimum percentage of bets they’d need to win to not lose money?

Extra credit: Again, in sports betting parlance, what does “middling” mean?

Comments? If you give answers, did you look them up first?

*Big odds would be 5-1.

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