"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." Bill Veeck

Friday, April 12, 2013

National League -- West



Arizona Diamondbacks

Team Motto: We're a dry hot!
Hello: Martin Prado, Cody Ross, Brandon McCarthy
Goodbye: Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, Chris Young
Pleasant surprise players? Patrick Corbin, Didi Gregorious
Nice comeback player: Adam Eaton

Manager Kirk Gibson is hot too.
I am cheating a bit picking Eaton to "come back," as he will be a rookie when he finally recovers from injury to his elbow, and takes the field. He’ll give Arizona an excellent lead off hitter, and play a solid centerfield. With Ross and Jason Kubel combining for perhaps as many as 60 homers, and with Geraldo Parra a very capable fill in until Eaton comes back, the outfield looks pretty good.

Prado (3B, or anywhere else) is very under-rated, Aaron Hill is the best offensive second baseman in the NL. Paul Goldschmidt may be a big star pretty soon? They are biding their time on prospect Gregorious to take over at short, and Miguel Montero is a very good all around catcher.

The rotation is pretty good if unspectacular with Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill solid, and the bullpen has first rate set up guy in David Hernandez in front of JJ Putz.

Prediction: 1st Place

I always botch predicting this division, so I am purposely being somewhat counter-intuitive in picking the D-Backs to win it over the "sexy" Dodgers, and defending World Series champion Giants. I do think Arizona is the team with the fewest questions, and if Corbin take the next step up, and young prospect starters Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs mature by mid-season, this could easily be a playoff team.


San Francisco Giants

Team motto: Beard Free!
Hello: Chad Gaudin
Goodbye: Melky Cabrera, Brian Wilson
Pleasant surprise player? Brandon Belt
Nice comeback player: Pablo Sandoval

"The Beard" has been shaved.
The Giants are a team that made almost no changes at all in the off season, and they are seriously lacking in depth. Brandon Crawford is not a MLB shortstop in my opinion, and Marco Scutaro will not replicate his 2102 stats.

Can Sandoval stay healthy? Will Hunter Pence stop his decline? Will former top prospect Brandon Belt finally step up? Way too much needs to go right with this team for me to think their good starting rotation and excellent bull pen can carry them any farther than maybe a wild card slot?

Yes, NL MVP Buster Posey is the best catcher in baseball and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are the best 1-2 pitcher combination this side of Philadelphia, but Tim Lincecum has lost his magic, and I am still not convinced Ryan Vogelsong is the real deal?

Prediction: 2nd Place

It would be foolish to think that this club can’t repeat, but to me there are too many things that could go wrong, and any one or two of them could cripple this team. Posey, Cain, Sandoval and Bumgarner will all need to produce top seasons, and even if they do, I don’t think it will be enough.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Team motto: Who needs an infield, we have STARS!
Hello: Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu
Goodbye: Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton
Pleasant surprise player? Josh Beckett
Nice comeback player: Carl Crawford


"Hey Matt, can you guys run a fast break?"
Clayton Kershaw might be the best pitcher in baseball, and Matt Kemp may be the best hitter, but after that it gets a bit trickier. Yes Adrian Gonzalez will put up big numbers, and once Hanley Ramirez comes back from his injury he might be able to shine on a team where he is no longer the only bright light? Beyond those guys, is Zack Greinke really as good as everyone seems to think? Can Crawford come back from the edge of oblivion? Can Andre Ethier stop his slide into mediocrity? He can’t hit lefties anymore.

The Dodgers certainly have arms after Kershaw – Beckett, Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley. How good any of these guys will be is a huge question, though I do like Capuano to put up another useful season, and for Beckett to forgo beer and fried chicken and make a nice comeback.

The big problem with this team aside from the questions about the starting rotation is catcher, second, short, third, and right? You know, the rest of the team? I am also not high on Brandon League as the closer for a team that has a stud like Kenley Jansen available, though it’s my bet that Manager Don Mattingly will be using him to close out games soon enough

Prediction: 3rd Place

This team has a chance to be a juggernaut or a dumpster fire, and I look for a variation of both scenarios as the season progresses. It will be entertaining ride no matter how it turns, because hey, in LA it’s all about the show(time), isn’t it?

　
Colorado Rockies


Team motto: Jorge, Jhoulys, Juan, Jeff, and Jon – smoke our "J’s!"
Hello: Wilton Lopez, Jon Garland, Reid Brignac, Chris Volstad
Goodbye: Ramon Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie
Pleasant surprise player? Josh Rutledge
Nice comeback players: Juan Nicasio, Michael Cuddyer

Plenty of runs in Coors, but most by the visitors.
These guys still kill opposing pitchers at home, which is nice until you remember that their pitchers also get killed at home. The aforementioned "J’s" are De La Rosa, Chacin, Nicasio, Francis, and Garland. The first three are young and talented, the last two would get lit up in AAA. I do think Nicasio will be a star. He was on the brink when he suffered an awful injury in 2011 when he took a liner off his head, and then injured his knee last season. He has electric stuff.

The Rockies have some nice hitters home or away, in Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Dexter Fowler appears to be on the verge of being a star, and Rutledge showed huge promise at the end of last season when Tulowitzki was hurt (again). The catcher is Wilin Rosario, who may hit 35 homer while committing 45 passed balls, and creaky Todd Helton is back for one more go-round at first base while former prospect Tyler Colvin bides his time in AAA. Michael Cuddyer is a very good hitter who missed 61 games last season due to injuries.

The bullpen is strong with Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and Lopez setting up Rafael Bettancourt.

Prediction: 4th Place

The Rockies will kick the snot out of some teams in Coors Field, and watch Garland and Francis get the snot kicked out them at home and away. I think they’ll win more games than San Diego, but if both teams lose 90+ who cares?


San Diego Padres

Team motto: Losing 6-5 now, instead of 2-1!
Hello: Jedd Gyorko
Goodbye: Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson
Pleasant surprise player? Yonder Alonso
Nice comeback player: Carlos Quentin

The fences are in, but will the fans be?
Even before last year’s breakout star Chase Headley got hurt in spring training, this was a bad team. Why San Diego ownership decided to move the fences in and make Petco more of a hitters park from what had been a haven for pitchers had to have been a move to boost attendance, because it’s sure not going to help a team with so many poor MLB players?

Edinson Volquez a heads up an poor-to-mediocre rotation that may cause an excellent bullpen to be over-used by mid-May? Huston Street is still an excellent closer, and with Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, and Andrew Cashner backing him up the Padres should be able to protect the few leads they will take into the last few innings of those games.

Yonder Alonso, who was stymied by Joey Votto being the Red’s first baseman in Cincinnati, is a talented player who should develop into a good power hitter. If Carlos Quentin can ever stay healthy enough to play more than 120 games in a season he will put up 40 homers. Problem is, he’s only played more than 120 that twice in his career. Former first round Miami draft pick Cameron Maybin showed some skills after an awful start to the 2101 season, and short stop Everth Cabrera may lead the majors in steals, assuming he can reach first base enough?

Prediction: 5th Place

This team may have a hard time scoring runs in Colorado, and with the pitching they have it could get ugly early and often. Maybe rookie Jedd Gyorko infielder will provide some life support to the anemic offense until Headley is back. Pitcher Cory Luebke is a talented pitcher recovering from TJS, and should be back around the All Star break. Neither player will be enough from keeping this team from losing 100 games.

Nickel recap:

Maybe the Giants keep everyone healthy and they all produce like 2012?  Maybe the Dodgers roll a bunch of 7's? I know the Rockies and Padres are bad, so that leaves me with Arizona. Maybe this is the season I get this division right?
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