Hold on and Save this

No bra

Yesterday afternoon at Citi Field the New York Mets went into the top of the ninth inning with a 4-1 lead over the San Francisco Giants.  The Mets brought in their closer, Frank Francisco in relief of starter Mike Pelfrey, and the following mayhem ensued:

B. Posey singled to center
A. Huff grounded out to pitcher, B. Posey to second
N. Schierholtz walked
E. Burriss singled to shallow center, B. Posey scored, N. Schierholtz to second
H. Sanchez hit for B. Crawford
T. Byrdak relieved F. Francisco
H. Sanchez struck out swinging
B. Pill hit for D. Otero
J. Rauch relieved T. ByrdakB. Belt hit for B. Pill
B. Belt doubled to shallow center, N. Schierholtz and E. Burriss scored
A. Pagan struck out swinging

3 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors -- San Francisco Giants 4, New York Mets 4.

The Mets rally in the bottom of the ninth to win the game, 5-4. And among others, we have the following statistics to digest:

Frank Francisco gets a "Hold." A "Hold" as in "held the lead."

Tim Byrdak gets a "Hold."

Jon Rauch gets a "Blown Save" and a "Win."

So, Frank Francisco is charged with all 3 runs (including the run the tied the game) in 1/3 of inning and does not get the save he was put in the ballgame to get, but he gets a positive counting stat by getting a "Hold."

I don’t have a problem with the Hold as a statistic for relief pitchers any more than I do with the Save. There are times when many stats can be a bit (to very) bogus. One of the best is when a pitcher gets two outs in an inning before a batter reaches on an error. The pitcher then proceeds to give up (say) 7 hits, including a couple of homers, and when the dust settles the pitcher is down 7-0.

All 7 runs would be unearned based on the fact that is the third batter in the innings had been put out instead of reaching on the error, the pitcher would not have allowed any runs. That’s akin to saying that if my aunt didn’t have big ta tas she’d be my uncle.

In reality, didn’t Francisco blow the save? If a player is put into the game to do something, and he doesn’t do it, shouldn’t he be charged with a negative stat? And how is it that he gets a Hold when it was "his" run that tied the game? Tim Byrdak came into the game when the Mets had the lead, and struck out the one batter he faced. He certainly earned that Hold a lot more than Francisco earned his.



Yes bra

Look, I know the rules that govern how all of this works, and understand the importance of trying to quantify and qualify numbers for all pitchers, I am just get tired sometimes of my uncle needing to wear that big brassiere.

NL Preditctions -- editing error

I made an obvious editing error in having 3 wild card teams in the National League, when of course there can only be two.

Sorry Donny Baseball, your LA Dodgers are out, and no amount of Magic will change my mind.

2012 Baseball Predictions – National League

Matt & Rihanna, long ago

There seems to be a consensus of baseball ‘experts’ that the American League (AL) is more than a little bit better than the National League (NL), and I don’t disagree. Back in early February when I started to look at all the teams for 2012, I had five AL teams (Angels, Yankees, Texas, Boston, Tampa Bay) in the top 6 with Philadelphia the only NL team in the mix. Notice I don’t have Detroit in there? I’m really not sure where all this Tiger love is coming from, unless it’s an off shoot of all the Tiger love the media has for a certain smarmy and petulant golfer? Las Vegas has Detroit as the favorite to win it all, and the only thing I can come with as to why they have them in that slot is that they are trying to lure all the chalk bets? Again, it’s not that I don’t think Detroit has a good team, nor is it because I don’t like the team and manager – I do, they just wouldn’t get a dime of my money.

So yes, all of that, but this isn’t about the AL, it’s about the NL. In spite of the arguable fact that the AL has better teams at the top, the NL has won 3 of the last 4 World Series; and 6 of the last 11. Sometime around the end of October the only thing that will matter will be who won the World Series.

On March 13 of last year I posted a piece that predicted that the Philadelphia Phillies would not make the post-season. I was looking at an aging team that I knew would struggle to score and a very improved Atlanta team with all kinds of young and electric talent. I have always tried to be ahead of the curve with this prediction stuff. I was on Tampa Bay and Texas well prior to those two teams breaking out, and if it hadn’t been for an epic collapse every bit as bad as Boston’s, the Braves make the post-season in 2011, and St. Louis does not.

NL EAST
the MetsLet’s start with my old favorites, the New York Mets, and the collection of AAA-players they have surrounding David Wright, and a retreaded Johan Santana. There are a few nice players on the team, like pitcher Jon Niese, Ike Davis (1B), and outfielder Lucas Duda. They also have an old knuckleball pitcher that wrote a book (ala Jim Bouton), and a fan base that might mistake this group for a Ponzi scheme, and refuse to invest? The good news is that the Mets cleared a lot of salary. The bad news is that they don’t have any money to spend or a minor league system with anything better than mediocre prospects.  This is a bad team, and will remain bad team for a few more years.

The Atlanta Braves went through a growth season in 2011, then got pruned too soon after they froze over during an ice-cold August. A year wiser, here they come again for the Larry "Chipper" Jones farewell tour, and this is a very good team just waiting to take the next step. There is a group of young pitchers on this roster that are already very good (Tom Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters) and some we will soon see quite often over this season and beyond -- Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino. Brian McCann is still one of the best hitting catchers in MLB, and Dan Uglla is an automatic 30+ homers at second base. Freddie Freeman (1B) was the NL Rookie of the Year if his teammate (Kimbrel) hadn’t won it, and we still have a young stud named Jason Heyward who was supposed to be the next big hitter in the game 2 years ago. I am not sold more than 50% on Heyward, as he seems brittle to me, but it wouldn’t surprise if he did explode for 30 homers, 100 RBI, with a ,285 average and 20 stolen bases. The 2011 MLB stolen base leader Mike Bourn is in center, and the multi-talented Martin Prado in left, when he isn’t spelling Chipper at third. The Braves are giving a kid named Tyler Pastornicky a chance at short, and from what I have seen, the kid is good.

Remember when the Washington Nationals were a bunch of grubby Canadian orphans? Well they found a filthy rich uncle in Ted Lerner 6 years ago who has been opening up the purse the last few years. Suddenly, Washington has a team that can contend for a playoff spot. For those who have forgotten, before Stephen Strasburg there was Jordan Zimmermann, who is now back from Tommy John surgery, and along with the sweet acquisition of Gio Gonzalez from Oakland it gives the Nats a pretty nice top 3 of the rotation. The free agent singing of Edwin Jackson was another excellent move. Jackson may not have the greatest numbers, but he battles every time out and he’s a rock solid #4. With just average seasons by Ryan Zimmerman. Mike Morse, and Jayson Werth, and a decent comeback by Adam LaRoche, there are enough pieces here to win a lot of ball games for Manager Davey Johnson. Plus, if Bryce Harper (AKA the Second Coming of Mickey Mantle) arrives in the league this year, we’ll have more hype than when Strasburg arrived – and who doesn’t like more hype?

Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels are 75% of the Philadelphia Phillies. If one of them goes down for a sustained period of time, this club is in deep trouble. And I think they are in trouble anyway. Vance Worley looks like a nice young pitcher, but he’s not Roy, Cliff or Cole. I am guessing the Philly brass wished they had had enough money to bring back another Roy – Oswalt, who is still out there in free agent land. I believe they over-paid for Jon Papelbon, and could have used that money for Oswalt and nudged Ryan Madson into a closer role. The fact that Madson walked as a free agent and is now down for a year is immaterial to me, as I would have bumped Antonio Bastardo into the job. The hitting side is getting very old and creaky, with Ryan Howard out till June (?) with an Achilles tear, and Chase Utley maybe down forever as a star ball player? Jimmy Rollins at short and Placido Polanco at 3B are getting gray, leaving the heavy lifting to Hunter Pence, who will continue to be a star, and John Mayberry, who looks to become one. I think the Phils need to put Domonic Brown out in right field and see if this kid has it or not? They say "the old order changeth…" and this in an old order that three star pitchers can’t cure.

I can see the love, can't you?

I have been asked why I like Miami Marlin Manager Ozzie Guillen so much, and I say "Charles Barkley." Do you get it? Fuck/shit/piss, you may as well ask me why I love Fidel Castro? I like Ozzie because (like Sir Charles) he always lets you know how he feels and he doesn’t giving a fat flying fuck if you don’t give a rat-shit. Sorry for the cursing, but there was no quicker way to get my point across. Ozzie is hanging in South Beach, pissing off or enticing the enormous Cuban population to come out to the big aquarium and watch his fish steal their way to the playoffs. Yes, with Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, and Emilio Bonifacio the Marlins will steal some bases, and if 22-year old wunderkind Giancarlo (nee Mike) Stanton cuts down just a bit on his striking out he may hit 50 homers. There are a couple of other nice players on the team in Logan Morrison (OF) and Gaby Sanchez (1B), but the pitching is very thin in my opinion. Josh Johnson is one of the best in MLB when healthy, but he’s never healthy. Anibal Sanchez is nice, but Ricky Nolasco is the Francisco Liriano of the NL. Those guys are like that box of chocolates Mr. Gump spoke of, and if you retch when you bite into that chocolate-covered cherry, don’t take Ricky (the chocolate) out of the wrapper. Sorry Ozzie, I don’t see it happening here for you, but what the fuck/shit/piss, I’ll be rooting for ya.

The finish
Atlanta
Washington (wild card)
Philadelphia
Florida
NY Mets

NL CENTRAL

When Tony LaRussa retired as the St. Louis Cardinals manager it was a dream come true for me. I despise the guy, and have for a long time. I won’t bore you with my reasons, as I have any number of posts where I have bashed him, and he’s to me as Fredo was to Michael after their mother died. (You're dead to me Tony)  So Pujols slips off to go surfin' safari (as LaRussa knew he would) and Chris Carpenter goes down (again!) just as Adam Wainwright comes back. Seems like the Cards can’t catch a break, or maybe they used them all up last October on that Nelson Cruz adventure in right field? New manager Mike Matheny still has a decent club.  Matt Holliday is the new big-hitter in the line up, flanked by a couple of old and dottering hitters in Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman. Would anyone be surprised if those guys each missed 30-60+ games with assorted injuries? Can World Series hero David Freese stay healthy, and is Yadier Molina really worth all that jack (signed through 2017 at an average of $9.65 million per year) that he got? St. Louis does have a deep bullpen, which they’ll probably need, as after Jamie Garcia and maybe Lance Lynn, the starting pitching is very lean, and the magic that was Dave Duncan is gone too. (Another big reason why LaRussa left)

The Houston Astros are rebuilding…still, and now they have to doubly-fortify in anticipation of moving to the AL West in 2013. The good news is that they’ll have other AAA-teams (Seattle and Oakland) to play with a lot, but the bad news is that Texas and Los Angeles will kick the snot out of them on the flip side. Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris could be stars with a number of teams, and I think Wandy will be dealt no later than the June trade deadline, and their one viable hitter, Carlos Lee will have trouble driving in non-existent base runners. This is a really bad baseball team – worst in baseball even with two good starting pitchers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates had a nice run last season, didn’t they? Of course it all crashed and burned as we suspected it would, when that lousy pitching staff saw all those fabulous numbers regress to the mean.  That meant that they were horrible the last 2 months. Maybe Eric Bedard will help on the mound in 2012, but don’t count on him for more than 100 innings, and whatever you do, right about the time AJ Burnett is ready to return, get him back in the cage to practice more bunting! That’s probably unfair, as Pittsburgh seems to be an AJ kinda town. I do like a few of the Pirate hitters, especially outfielders Andrew McCutcheon, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley. The post-hype progress of Neal Walker (2B) is nice, but they sure could use all that promise held by Pedro Alvarez (3B), if he ever figure it out?

When it looked like Ryan Braun was going to miss the first 50 Milwaukee Brewer games of the year, I think a lot of people wrote them off. What’s odder, is they are still not getting any props even with Braun reinstated? They lost Prince Fielder’s 35+ homers and 120+ RBI, but brought in Aramis Ramirez and his 25 and 90, so it’s not as if there is a void in the 4 hole. Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks are solid players, and the rotation looks good with Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum. Wolf is the #4 on a deep staff, with an excellent bullpen, led by John Axford (and his mustache), and they are all supported by the ignoble Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez. Not sure why, but I like the Brewers #5 starter, Chris Narveson. He lost a lot of strikeouts last season, and was horrible down the stretch, but I think it was an injury. Another guy to watch is a 28-year old righty named Marco Estrada. This is still a very good team.

The Cincinnati Reds seem to be the consensus pick to win the division, and I can see that happening. I think they are a better team now than they were two years ago, when they surprised a lot of people (not me, I picked ‘em) by winning the division  Joey Votto is an all-American hero for the Great American Ballpark, and he’s got some nice young running mates in outfielders Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey. Brandon Phillips is still a solid hitter and defensive player at second, and the kid at short Zack Cozart looks like he can play. They have a nice prospect at (back up) catcher in Devin Mesoraco, and two good top of the rotation guys in Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos. Not sure about Mike Leake yet, and if he’s done shoplifting $20 tees, nor former first round pick Homer Bailey. With Madson done for the season, I don’t like the prospect of a noted pitcher-killer like Dusty Baker trying to find a closer, but I think the team gets to the dance anyway.

Maybe Marco?

Unless the Chicago Cubs new leader Theo Epstein can find some reasonable hitters to play the 7 field positions not manned by shortstop Starlin Castro, it’s going to be a long, long year on Chicago’s north side. What? All right, this just in – Epstein can’t find anyone, unless we count Bryan Lahair, AAA- slugger extraordinaire, and some old dude named Alfonso Soriano? Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster are nice starting pitchers, but it’s pretty scary after that, even if Theo won’t say it. If nothing else, Cubs fan will sometimes be treated to closer Carlos Marmol inducing cardiac arrest in folks on those rare occasions when Chicago actually has a late lead to protect. New Cubs slogan is, "Well, at least we don’t suck as bad as the Astros!"

The finish
Milwaukee
Cincinnati (wild card)
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Houston

NL WEST

This seems to be the one division I can never figure out. The one certainty seems to be that is that if I pick the Arizona Diamondbacks to win it, they’ll finish last; and if I pick them to finish last, they’ll win it. Arizona had a very nice season in 2011, with their star Justin Upton continuing to outshine his older brother, and starting pitcher Ian Kennedy beginning to live up to the hype that only (a former) #1 Yankee draft picks could get. AZ also had a nice year from another young starter in Daniel Hudson, but after that the rotation gets iffy?  Miguel Montero is one of the best hitting catchers a lot of folks have barely heard of, and getting ex-Twin Jason Kubel may be a nice add.

I was checking last year’s predictions, which you can go see here at http://baseballcranks.blogspot.com/2011/03/baseball-predictions-for-2011-part-1.htmlost

Last year I see I compared the San Francisco Giants to a Lego toy you buy for a child – one that looks good until you lose the directions and a few pieces. It’s still true with the Giants, though they do have their heart and soul back, with the return of Buster Posey, but now they need a Bubba to go with the Buster. Beyond Pablo Sandoval, and a possible breakout season by Brandon Belt, does this team have any viable offense? I think Tim Lincecum lost more 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 type games last season than anyone else in MLB? Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are excellent to very good, and the bullpen will be fine even if Brian Wilson gets bugged drivin’ up and down that same old strip.

Cam Maybin is smiling

Tulo and Cargo and pray for…? That’s the Colorado Rockies mantra this year, as there isn’t much else there to drive the ball through the thin mountain air. Hey poetry yes, but it’s not quite true, as the Rockies have Dexter Fowler in center and Michael Cuddyer to fill in just about anywhere except short and catcher, and they should contribute nice seasons. The aging Todd Helton (1B) and Boston give-away Marco Scutaro (2B) are okay pieces. The problem is a starting rotation with ex-Oriole (and former AL East batting practice pitcher) Jeremy Guthrie on top of a rotation also featuring 49-year old Jamie Moyer as the #2. Hmm? I do really like a kid named Juan Nicasio, who is the same young man that had a horrific neck injury late last season. He has electric stuff, and another young starter, Jhoulys Chacin has some developing talent, but it’s very thin (like the air) after that, and the bullpen needs to lose Rafael Betancourt as closer, and give the job to either Rex Brothers or Matt Reynolds

All that you may need to know about the San Diego Padres this year is that their two highest paid players each make $5.5 million per season. That’s what San Diego is paying Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson to man the keystone slots. Neither of these guys is even remotely close to being a star player, but the Padres do have some guys that could become stars soon?  Jesus Guzman, Yonder Alonso, and Kyle Blanks are all strong young men that can play either first or the outfield (relatively indifferently) but hit the ball a long, long way. Alonso was being blocked from being the Cincinnati Reds first baseman by Joey Votto, and he and another former Red, starter Edinson Volquez have moved to Petco Park. That move will definitely benefit Volquez, but will depress a lot of the power that Alonso and those other two young men will ultimately display. San Diego does have two budding stars in Chase Headley (3B), a second round draft pick in 2005, and Cameron Maybin (OF), who was the #1 pick by the Tigers in the same year. The rotation, ably assisted by Petco, features Cory Luebke, who may well be a star before the season is half way, and some other nice pieces. Another former #1 pick ( #4 overall, by the Padres in 2003), Tim Stauffer has been good, and maybe Clayton Richards will re-capture 2010? Manager Bud Black is a smart guy, and he’s done amazing things with this team before. Recall 2010, when the Giants needed a last week meltdown by San Diego to win the NL West? No one gave the Pads a chance to win that year either.

Nicasio will be a stud

I don’t know why Detroit is the Motor City, isn’t it LA with all the freakin’ cars? Detroit is supposed to be broke, and a few folks got together and spent 2-billion dollars for the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have to think that there is a little cash left for some wheels? Unless the wheels they bought belong to shortstop Dee Gordon and the best all-around ballplayer in the world in Matt Kemp? How about throwing Clayton Kershaw on that plate, and if Andre Ethier can fulfill his promise we could have a similar year for the Dodgers that the Tigers had in 2011? The one with Verlander, Miggy, and Vmart? You remember, don’t you? Like Detroit last season, LA has a lot of questions after their #1 starter, but the questions are easier to answer for me. Chad Billingsley has displayed top skills, and with the right direction, can be an ace once again. Ted Lilly is still a good #3, and Chris Capuano came all the way back from almost 3 full season out of baseball due to injury to pitch 186+ innings for a crappy NY Mets last year. Capuano could be a nice surprise. Kenley Jansen is unhittable – he just needs to stay healthy and get the ball over the plate, and we have Donny (Mattingly) Baseball to run the show...and Magic to run show time.

The finish
San Diego
Los Angeles (wild card)
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado

Well, there it is.

2012 Baseball Predictions – American League

Been absent from this for quite a while now, as life got in the way. I actually do have a job, and these days I have another part-time gig, which is helping my wife Susan take care of her dad, who is closing in on 94 years of age.

So there’s been that, and between prepping for playing in 6 fantasy baseball leagues (3 of which I am in charge of), running a NCAA hoops pool (barely out of the money – and I mean barely), I’ve hardly had the time for this stuff.

Corona, hot or cold

But who cares, right? We all have stuff to do, and the great news for me is that Susan and I are heading to Arizona on Tuesday for a week of hot sun, and cold Corona, and a visit with my son and his wife, and good times with old friends.

As far as this years MLB menu, it looks as though we will have some tasty items to consume, with the best being 5 nice division races (all but the AL Central), and a much improved wild card set up. The latter is a great move by MLB, adding one more wild card team, and having the two in each league play one game to get in the playoff mix. It’s kinda like being the Vermont Catamount men’s basketball team – one of those 65-68 seeded teams that needed to do a little extra to get into the bigger dance. At least now winning a division means something important, and those six teams can grab a day or two of rest, and not burn a top starting pitcher just to get "in." You know, kinda like spending $20 just to get inside the club, and then only having another $10 to buy drinks?

Anyway, here we go with the prognostications, and capsule summary of what looks to happen this season in the American League:

AL EAST

Remember last year when everyone picked Boston to win it all? Then the Sox get off to a 2-8 start and folks were edging towards the ledge all along Beacon Street, because you know the season was lost. Then, by the end of August, Boston has the best record in baseball and the sun is shining gloriously bright.

But you know, the brightest hour is always just before you get struck by lightning.

I hear some of the pundits say "Well, this is essentially the same Boston team that had the best record in baseball on September 1, 2011…" I have heard myself say the same thing, which really sucks, as that means I am talking to myself, but more importantly is the statement really isn’t true at all.

The Yankees, Tampa Bay and Toronto have all markedly improved, and Baltimore can be a lot better if they ever get any starting pitching worth more than a middling AAA roster.

The New York Yankees add Hiroki Kuroda, and a revived Phil Hughes to a rotation with Sabathia, Nova, and Garcia that almost makes me want to an "a" to Hughes and make Hughesa, but I wouldn’t know how to pronounce it. The bullpen is better with Soriano back, and with Raul Ibanez providing a nice lefty bat at DH, all the Yankees need is reasonable health. Look for Eduardo Nunez to get a lot of playing time spelling A-Rod and Jeter, and watch how New York hardly skips a beat when he does.

Tampa Bay has the best group of starting pitchers in all MLB and a lot of players for Joe Maddon to mix and match in a line up that leads off Desmond Jennings, the new and improved version of Carl Crawford. Ben Zobrist is solid, Carlos Pena is back, and Luke Scott was added for all the Florida right-wing wackos to love. The stud is Evan Longoria, the best ‘true’ third baseman in baseball.

It seems that Toronto is the sexy pick to find enough money to get into the dance, and it’s hard to argue with their offense not having enough, but past Ricky Romero and maybe Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez, the pitching doesn’t have a sexy shape. Too many questions on this team that need to have great answers, like will Rasmus. Lind, and Lawrie consolidate sills and become solid and productive hitters?

Two years ago Baltimore had what looked to be a nice crop of young starting pitchers in Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Britton. Baltimore traded staff anchor Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado for Jason Hammell, which is like jumping from the Titanic to the Louisitania, and signed a nice Japanese pitcher named Tsuyoshi Wada who the O’s put on the DL about 5 days ago. Now, we have a nice crapshoot of a pitching staff, and a group of hitters that looks pretty good but stagnant. I do like (catcher) Matt Wieters chances to really break out with a great year, and become the stud so many of us thought he’d already be?

So, back to Boston, and Valentine’s Folly? This is a good team, but no longer a great one, and more than any contender one that can’t suffer too many more injuries. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz will need to win a combined 50 games, leaving Valentine needing to find a way to win at least 42 or 43 more from some other guys like Daniel Bard, Felix Doubront, and hope old dudes like sweaty Vincente Padilla and meatball-tossing Aaron Cook have something to contribute. The bullpen will need to be good while they’re being over-used. I didn’t think the trade for Bailey was a good one – would’ve given the job to Bard instead of making him a starter, and the move trading Marco Scutaro to clear money in order to sign Roy Oswalt sure worked out, huh? I do like Cody Ross, he’s gamer with a swing geared to clear the Green Monster. He reminds me of what Nick Swisher is for New York, that earnest meathead-type that’s always positive and smiling, hitting .260 and a homer a week.

Matt Moore, the new Koufax?

The finish

New York

Boston (wild card)

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Baltimore

AL CENTRAL

Detroit appears to be the only sure thing as a division winner to me, but it’s not because the Tiger are that good, just that the other guys are just average or bad. Alex Avila came out of nowhere last season as a excellent hitting catcher, which allowed Victor Martinez to DH. So VMart goes down, and the Tiger sign Prince Fielder, which when I boil it down is not that much of an upgrade. Martinez is a better hitter overall, even if he’s way behind Prince as a home run hitter, and Miguel Cabrera at third base will prove to be a defensive disaster. I also look for Jose Valverde to implode, and Doug Fister to go back to being a mediocre pitcher. Beyond Avila and Austin Jackson in center field, this is a bad defensive team.  Cabrera and Fielder are the stars, and Boesch, Young, Rayburn and Peralta are good hitters.  Of course we have Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer is an ace-starting pitcher disguised as an under-achiever. That said, I make Detroit no better than the 6^th best team in the AL.

Cleveland appears to be improving, but has no pitching to be very optimistic about. Are any of us Ubaldo Jiminez fans? I like Justin Masterson, but with Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, and Jeanmar Gomez rounding things out, it could mean a lot of teams rounding the bases versus the Indians this year. Brantley (CF), Choo (RF), Kipnis (2B), Cabrera (SS), and Santana (C) are very nice offensive players which also gives Cleveland good defense up the middle. If only Grady Sizemore hadn’t had has body completely break, and Travis Hafner had been able to not follow Sizemore…and I think about what if CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee had stayed and Rocky Colavito hadn’t been traded…

The White Sox lose a great manager in (my main man) Ozzie Guillen, who never lost a fight, and gain a nice guy who never managed in Robin Ventura, who lost the one fight he’s ever had to an old dude from Texas. I have no idea what that means other than that Ozzie knew it was time to go – I think his message wore thin in Chicago, and I still think that the team has the most potential in the division to actually give the Tigers a run. A couple of nice players in Alexi Ramirez at short and Paul Konerko at first, and two guys in Adam Dunn (DH) and Alex Rios (RF) that just need to have average years to give the offense a nice boost. The pitching is decent at the worst, and there are some very nice young arms in Chris Sale, Addison Reed, Phil Humber, and Hector Santiago.

Minnesota looks to be a disaster this year, and maybe Ron Gardenhire will lose whatever magic he had all those years, guiding a steady pace to the post-season? It was ugly last year, with both Mauer and Morneau out, Capps then Nathan blowing up the bullpen, and a series of neer-do-well starting pitchers led by the blackmail-proof Carl Pavano. Francisco Liriano appears to be the American League’s answer to the Marlin’s Ricky Nolasco – you know, a guy with all the tools that sucks you in with 3 great starts, then does a dumpster fire impression in 2 straight outings? Plus, Mike Cuddyer went to Colorado and Jason Kubel to Arizona. Make no mistake, this is the worst team in the American League, and I am including Oakland and Seattle.

Kansas City is a team on the rise, and I know I have said that the last two years, but this year I mean it…again, just like I meant it the last two years. Even with the great closer Joakim Soria down for the season, the Royals have great options beyond the big donkey Jonathan Broxton. Aaron Crow, Greg Holland and Tim Collins in the bullpen are very talented, and getting starter Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants was a nice move. Former #1 (overall 2006) pick Luke Hochevar looks to break out this year, and maybe the #3 2007 pick Danny Duffy will take the next step too? Billy Butler is a excellent hitter, and Eric Hosmer (1B) will be an all star for many years. If former #1 pick (#2 overall in 2005) Alex Gordon can come close to repeating 2011, and Mike Moustakas (3B) begins to live up to hype the team will be a lot better, Alcides Escobar (SS) is great defensively and may steal 30, as is Lorenzo Cain in center. If those two gain patience and get some walks, the Royals will score some runs. That said, any team with Bruce Chen as it’s #1 starting pitcher has no shot at post-season.

Eric Hosmer, the new Brett?

The finish

Detroit

Chicago

Kansas City

Cleveland

Minnesota

AL WEST

The 2-time defending American League champions are the Texas Rangers, and how cool is that, not to have either New York or Boston filling that role? Anyone paying attention could see this building a few years ago and right now they have the best hitting team in baseball. There isn’t an easy out in the line up, and the team defense is excellent, once we get past the outfield adventures of Nelson Cruz. Colby Lewis anchors the rotation, backed by 4 very talented kids in Derek Holland (25 years old) , Matt Harrison (26), Neftali Feliz (21), and the latest (and greatest?) Japanese import, Yu Darvish (25). I am not sold on Darvish, as aside from Kuroda, and one great season by Dice-K, can anyone name another successful MLB starting pitcher from Japan? And no, Hideki Nomo does not count.

Seattle does have Ichrio, but he doesn’t pitch, and based on last season, his days as a top hitter are in the past, so naturally Seattle moves him into the 3-hole in the line up, where all those tapped grounders will work really well. If Chone Figgins can come farther back from the dead than Adam Dunn, and Dustin Ackley continues to look like a nice hitter, Ichrio may have someone to drive in, and set the table for Justin Smoak. Smoak, if you recall, was Eric Hosmer before we actually had Eric Hosmer. Seattle traded prime (starting pitcher) talent Miguel Pineda to the Yankees for prime (hitting) talent Jesus Montero, and early returns favor Seattle here, with Pineda hurting. Past that…not much, but there is still a guy named Felix Hernandez pitching out there, and he’s still only 26 years old.

The Oakland Moneyballers seem to have lost their muse, and now, with the exception of Coco "Disabled List" Crisp are forgoing all those creaky old Frank Thomas/Hideki Matsui/Gabe Gross/Jason Giambi type players for kids. Problem is these kids don’t look that good, but maybe Cespedes, Weeks, Allen and Reddick will live up to the hype. If not, about 8 weeks from now, we may get one more dose of creaky when Manny Ramirez will be eligible to play? I hope not, too much like a bad movie I’ve seen too often. Meanwhile, the pitching is very suspect, but Oakland plays in a pitcher’s park, so we’ll get to see bad pitching appear to look good and bad hitting look worse.

The Los Angeles Angels are my team to beat this season, and this is for all of baseball, not just what should prove to be the best division of all 6 in MLB, even with two crappy teams like Seattle and Oakland. It’s not just Pujols either, it’s CJ Wilson, who keeps getting better and stronger, emerging ace Jered Weaver, long time under-appreciated ace Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana, perhaps the best #4 starter on any team this side of Tampa? The bull pen is fine, and the line up doesn’t have enough openings for all the good hitters. If Kendrys Morales makes it back even 75%, and Mark Trumbo can approach his 2011 numbers and play a decent third base, the Angels won’t need much more. Maybe Vernon Wells makes a bit of a comeback, but if not the Angels will be able to slide Bobby Abreu in once in a while, or just bring up the top hitting prospect in all of baseball in Mike Trout, and plop him into left. This is the best balanced and deepest team in baseball.

Me Tarzan, Yu Darvish,

The finish

Los Angeles

Texas (wild card)

Seattle

Oakland

I hope to get to the National League in the next day or two.