My dad followed baseball really carefully back then, and had noticed that every time the Indians had played the Giants in Spring Training (both played spring ball in Arizona, and played one another a lot), and each team had their best guys playing, the Giants always won. He knew the Giants would win the series.
He said "I told your mother what I wanted to bet and she started to cry, so for the only time in my life I lied to her, and said I was only going to bet $50.00…and she still cried."
I don’t recall what he said he really bet, but based on what he said he won it was a lot of money. My dad had to work a full-time job and all sort of extra jobs to make about $3500 a year to support a wife and 2 kids. He also had car and mortgage payments.
I can’t find a record of what the odds were on that series, but I think it’s safe to say he was getting about 4-1, and he also placed a sum on the Giants sweeping Cleveland in 4 straight, which is exactly what happened. I believe my dad won over $1000, possibly more – equal to about six-months worth of wages at his full time job.
After that, he never really bet much of anything on any other sporting event, but when I got old enough to consider gambling opportunities my dad would drop pearls of wisdom on me about sure things that he had come up with, and he was never wrong. The problem was it took about 2 or 3 of these sure things to hit before I actually bet any money of them.
The last one he gave me was in 1981, which by that time I was all in.
In the 7 or 8 times he would come up with these pearls, Dad always said, "Charlie, how would you like to make a lot of money?"
I didn’t have to say a thing before he told me "The Raiders are going to kill the Eagles."
The Raiders were a 3-point underdog, and I took the points, bet a bundle, and won easily.
Of course there really is no such thing as a sure thing when betting on a game, unless the game is fixed, or is there?
Back in 1974, the great sportswriter and sports novelist Dan Jenkins wrote a hilariously entertaining book titled "Dead Solid Perfect." The lead character is a Texas native named Kenny Lee Puckett. Kenny Lee has a shady gambling acquaintance that writes sports for a local newspaper. Together, they concoct a scheme in which they invent a Texas high school with a fantastic football team, as reported in game stories made up by Kenny Lee’s pal. Texas high school football being the enormously popular thing that it was (and still is), eventually other newspapers to begin publishing the game stories and scores of the phony team’s games. Before long, bookies are putting betting lines on the games and taking wagers on them.
The shady reporter has been handling the money, and laying the bets. When Kenny Lee questions "What the hell happened?" his partner says, "Kenny Lee, there ain’t nothin’ in this whole world that’s dead solid perfect."
All right, I know, even 40 years ago that really couldn’t have happened but there is a huge truth within that allegorical tale in the book that every serious gambler knows – The only sure thing in betting on a sporting event is that there is no sure thing.
So, what does all of this have to do with the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49er's Super Bowl game tomorrow evening?
Answer, everything and nothing.
In the last 22 years, since the Sports Books in Las Vegas have been keeping track, the sports books have won money 20 out of those 22 years. That’s about 91%, which are crappy odds for the airline pilot landing the 737 you're flying on without crashing, but in the realm of sports betting that’s pretty damn good.
In these 22 years, Vegas has made $100-million on Super Bowl bets, but that’s estimated to be only about 1% of what’s been bet on the game world-wide.
The flip side to Vegas taking all that money is that they also pay out a lot. The key is everyone bets on the Super Bowl, from your Aunt Minnie, to my 6-year old cousin Jill, to my wife’s coworker who said she couldn’t bet on the Ravens because of "what Ray Lewis did to all those pit bulls!" The fact that is was Mike Vick doesn’t change the fact that the general public bets their emotions, or feelings, and they use recent history as a guide. If Team A sucked last week, and Team B was great, Team A kills Team B this week.
Vegas knows all of this, and they put betting lines out there that the public perceives to be a true representation of what will happen, i.e. If Team A is a 7-point favorite they are the better team and will win the game. "Everyone" bets on the favorite, because the favorite is the better team, right?
Well, "everyone" doesn’t bet on the favorite.
This year, so far, about 70% or more of the money wagered on the game in Vegas is on Ravens, who are anywhere from 3-5 point underdogs. The public is taking the points, placing their bets, and feeling smart. They are caught up in the Ray Lewis is a messenger of God hype, Baltimore is on a roll hype, the Ravens are this year’s New York Giants hype, and on and on.
Are you with them, or with me and the whales? http://baseballcranks.blogspot.com/2011/02/super-bowl-whale-watching.html
Tomorrow afternoon in Las Vegas, there will be dozens of men and women in the various casinos waiting until almost game time to place huge amounts of money on the Super Bowl. These folks work for betting syndicates, or multi-millionaire bettors like Billy Walters – millions of dollars will be wagered in the hour before kick off on behalf of the syndicates and the "Whales" who eliminate all those silly emotions and bet numbers, not teams.
So, what will they bet?
I feel certain that the best bet will go along those millions of dollars that will be put on San Francisco, on the money line. The wise guys will take the point spread out of the equation and put up $140-$170 to win $100, multiplied by the thousands, which is where that line should be by game time.
The wise guys know that San Francisco is the better team, and that’s where they want their money. They don’t mind putting up bigger dollars to take the points out of the bet, and this is what the sports books expect to have happen. They will take money from Aunt Minnie, Cousin Jill, and my wife’s coworker, pay the multi-millionaires, and pocket a huge profit for themselves once again.
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| Flacco's lament? |
Best one I have seen is: Joe Flacco, over or under ½ interceptions?
I think this is the best bet on the board. Flacco will have at least one INT. If you want to win $100, you need to bet $170. If I had someone to take that bet, I’d put some serious cash on it. Otherwise, get someone to bet you on the winner of the game – give them $160 if the Ravens win, and you take the 49ers and $100 when they win.
Sorry, my dad died in 1998, and my last premonition was over 10 years ago. So, unless I have some special dream before game time tomorrow, 91% is the best I can do for you Kenny Lee.
Go Niners!
