American League -- East

 

Boston Red Sox

Team Motto: No more funny valentines!
Hello: Shane Victorino, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Dempster**
Goodbye: Bobby Valentine
Pleasant surprise player? Xander Bogaerts
Nice comeback player: John Lackey

Not funny, just fun

**and Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew, Koji Uehara, David Ross, and Manager John Farrell.

There are all kinds of new names dotting this roster, and once they get David Ortiz back they will score some runs, assuming Jacoby Ellsbury, Will Middlebrooks, and Dustin Pedroia stay healthy. Look for top prospect Bogaerts to be up by mid-season and be a key performer down the stretch.

Teaming with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felix Doubront, I really think the Dempster signing was a very good one, and that John Lackey will come back strong. Story is he’s a good clubhouse guy, he just despised Bobby Valentine, but in that respect he was in vast majority.

The bullpen is a big strength if Hanrahan can handle the pressure and Bailey can stay healthy? Uehara is lights out, and Junichi Tazawa may have more talent than any of them?

Prediction: 1^st Place

The division looks to be a crapshoot, with all 5 teams having a legitimate shot. I like Farrell’s softer approach, which will be well served with a team like Boston, after last season’s fiasco. If they stay reasonably healthy, I think Boston wins it?

Baltimore Orioles

Team motto: The NEW Manny being Manny!
Hello: Alexi Casilla, Chris Dickerson
Goodbye: Matt Reynolds
Pleasant surprise player? Brian Matusz
Nice comeback player: Nate McLouth



A new and improved Manny

Manager Buck Showalter seems to have a shelf life of about 3 years with any team. It takes about that long for players to bridle from his strict intensity, but for those 3 years, he seems to have what it takes to get a team to out perform what would otherwise be expected of them.

For a team with few stars, Baltimore will score a lot of runs this season, as aside from second base, they have all kinds of thump in the line up. One player, Manny Machado, may be a super star by July?

The starting rotation lacks a true #1 starter, and maybe even a #2 guy, but Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel are solid, and there is a lot of young talent working their way up. Chris Tillman looks on the verge of a break out, and (prospect) Dylan Bundy may be the best pitcher to come along since Strasburg?

Prediction: 2^nd Place

The bullpen is a big key for this team, just as it was in 2012, but they will need the starting rotation to hold up and go deep into games. On offense, the teams is balanced and deep, and Showalter is very good at maximizing all of his players – at least for now.

Toronto Blue Jays

Team motto: It’s all abooot this year!
Hello: Jose Reyes, RA Dickey, Mark Buerhle, Josh Johnson, Melky Cabrera
Goodbye: Henderson Alvarez
Pleasant surprise player? Casey Janssen
Nice comeback player: Brandon Morrow

Morrow has the stuff to win a Cy Young.

The Blue Jays are stocked with stars, and all that payroll brings huge expectations that Toronto should win the division, or at least gain a wild card berth, but I don’t see it.

The team will score some runs with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, and Reyes leading the way. JP Arencibia is a nice young catcher, but after that the hitting gets a bit thin.

I don’t think Dickey will come close to replicating his 2012 Cy Young season, but will be pretty good. Buerhle is a nice add, but I think Josh Johnson won’t ever fulfill his early promise due to cumulative effect of all the injuries he’s suffered,

The bullpen is okay, and there is a surplus of speed on the roster, so the Jays could lead all MLB in stolen bases, depending on whether Rajai Davis, Emilio Bonifacio, and Anthony Gose get to play much?

Prediction: 3^rd Place

Morrow may be the best pitcher on the team, and he has potential to be a dominant starting pitcher for years to come. I think this is a good team, but much like the Dodgers, it’s not just about stars. They will compete, but I don’t see them wining a play off berth..

Tampa Bay Rays

Team motto: Pitching is 100% of our game!
Hello: Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, James Loney, Wil Myers
Goodbye: James Shields, Wade Davis, BJ Upton
Pleasant surprise player? Kelly Johnson
Nice comeback player: Evan Longoria

Joe's serving pitching only.

Manager Joe Maddon is a wizard of the platoon, because he needs to be. The Rays have what looks to be a brutally inept group of hitters when compared to what is easily the best pitching in all of MLB. Even after reigning AL Cy Young winner David Price departs after this season, they will still have Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and the next best thing in Chris Archer.

The Rays need hitting though, and may be forced to call up Wil Myers (the next best hitting star this side of Oscar Taveras) before they want to, just to keep pace in a brutally competitive division. Considering they traded (in part) a top-starting pitcher in James Shields, and former prospect Wade Davis for him, his MLB career may have to begin sooner than (money-conscious) Tampa ownership wants it to be?

Third baseman Evan Longoria is a stud, but as good as Ben Zobrist is, he is not a #4 hitter for 27 other MLB teams. Desmond Jennings looks to be a good player, but after that it’s very lean.

Prediction: 4^th Place

It seems that Tampa always finds a way to get into the mix, and this season may looks to be no different. The Rays will contend yet again, but fall short.

New York Yankees

Team motto: Hot Bronx Time Machine!
Hello: Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, Juan Rivera
Goodbye: Rafael Soriano
Pleasant surprise player? Eduardo Nunez
Nice comeback player: Mariano Rivera

A-Roid has been working out...just a bit...

If there is one perfect truism in baseball, it’s that old and injury-prone players don’t suddenly get healthy. Alex Rodriguez is not only old and injured, but almost universally despised, as much as injured Derek Jeter is revered. Ichiro Suzuki has seen his last good years go by, and Youkilis and Hafner are just waiting for their next DL stint.

There is a school of thought that if New York can just hang close enough until Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson get back, they’ll make a run and make the playoffs? Maybe so, but I don’t see those guys with declining skills getting it done, as they’ll probably be exchanging places on the DL with Youk, Pronk, and Ichiro?

It’s nice to see Rivera back, but I could do without all the "what a classy guy" slop. The bullpen however, does appear to be a strength, but I am not sure about how the rotation will hold up. CC Sabathia has thrown a ton of innings, Hiroki Kuroda is 38 years old, and Andy Pettitte is 40. Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova , both only 26, do not appear to be much more than staff fillers.

Prediction: 5^th Place

This could get really ugly, but it’ll be fascinating to watch. Maybe (injured prospect) Miguel Pineda will come back and be the young pitching star the team needs to make the play-offs? Maybe CC finally breaks down, and the team loses 92? If I had to choose one of those scenarios, I’ll take the latter.

Nickel recap:

I don’t see this division as the strong and super-competitive one that so many prognosticators think it will be. I really feel it’s between the (good but not great) Red Sox and Orioles, with the loser of that battle taking a wild card slot.

National League -- West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Team Motto: We're a dry hot!
Hello: Martin Prado, Cody Ross, Brandon McCarthy
Goodbye: Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, Chris Young
Pleasant surprise players? Patrick Corbin, Didi Gregorious
Nice comeback player: Adam Eaton

Manager Kirk Gibson is hot too.

I am cheating a bit picking Eaton to "come back," as he will be a rookie when he finally recovers from injury to his elbow, and takes the field. He’ll give Arizona an excellent lead off hitter, and play a solid centerfield. With Ross and Jason Kubel combining for perhaps as many as 60 homers, and with Geraldo Parra a very capable fill in until Eaton comes back, the outfield looks pretty good.

Prado (3B, or anywhere else) is very under-rated, Aaron Hill is the best offensive second baseman in the NL. Paul Goldschmidt may be a big star pretty soon? They are biding their time on prospect Gregorious to take over at short, and Miguel Montero is a very good all around catcher.

The rotation is pretty good if unspectacular with Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill solid, and the bullpen has first rate set up guy in David Hernandez in front of JJ Putz.

Prediction: 1^st Place

I always botch predicting this division, so I am purposely being somewhat counter-intuitive in picking the D-Backs to win it over the "sexy" Dodgers, and defending World Series champion Giants. I do think Arizona is the team with the fewest questions, and if Corbin take the next step up, and young prospect starters Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs mature by mid-season, this could easily be a playoff team.

San Francisco Giants

Team motto: Beard Free!
Hello: Chad Gaudin
Goodbye: Melky Cabrera, Brian Wilson
Pleasant surprise player? Brandon Belt
Nice comeback player: Pablo Sandoval

"The Beard" has been shaved.

The Giants are a team that made almost no changes at all in the off season, and they are seriously lacking in depth. Brandon Crawford is not a MLB shortstop in my opinion, and Marco Scutaro will not replicate his 2102 stats.

Can Sandoval stay healthy? Will Hunter Pence stop his decline? Will former top prospect Brandon Belt finally step up? Way too much needs to go right with this team for me to think their good starting rotation and excellent bull pen can carry them any farther than maybe a wild card slot?

Yes, NL MVP Buster Posey is the best catcher in baseball and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are the best 1-2 pitcher combination this side of Philadelphia, but Tim Lincecum has lost his magic, and I am still not convinced Ryan Vogelsong is the real deal?

Prediction: 2^nd Place

It would be foolish to think that this club can’t repeat, but to me there are too many things that could go wrong, and any one or two of them could cripple this team. Posey, Cain, Sandoval and Bumgarner will all need to produce top seasons, and even if they do, I don’t think it will be enough.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Team motto: Who needs an infield, we have STARS!
Hello: Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu
Goodbye: Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton
Pleasant surprise player? Josh Beckett
Nice comeback player: Carl Crawford



"Hey Matt, can you guys run a fast break?"

Clayton Kershaw might be the best pitcher in baseball, and Matt Kemp may be the best hitter, but after that it gets a bit trickier. Yes Adrian Gonzalez will put up big numbers, and once Hanley Ramirez comes back from his injury he might be able to shine on a team where he is no longer the only bright light? Beyond those guys, is Zack Greinke really as good as everyone seems to think? Can Crawford come back from the edge of oblivion? Can Andre Ethier stop his slide into mediocrity? He can’t hit lefties anymore.

The Dodgers certainly have arms after Kershaw – Beckett, Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley. How good any of these guys will be is a huge question, though I do like Capuano to put up another useful season, and for Beckett to forgo beer and fried chicken and make a nice comeback.

The big problem with this team aside from the questions about the starting rotation is catcher, second, short, third, and right? You know, the rest of the team? I am also not high on Brandon League as the closer for a team that has a stud like Kenley Jansen available, though it’s my bet that Manager Don Mattingly will be using him to close out games soon enough

Prediction: 3^rd Place

This team has a chance to be a juggernaut or a dumpster fire, and I look for a variation of both scenarios as the season progresses. It will be entertaining ride no matter how it turns, because hey, in LA it’s all about the show(time), isn’t it?

　

Colorado Rockies

Team motto: Jorge, Jhoulys, Juan, Jeff, and Jon – smoke our "J’s!"
Hello: Wilton Lopez, Jon Garland, Reid Brignac, Chris Volstad
Goodbye: Ramon Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie
Pleasant surprise player? Josh Rutledge
Nice comeback players: Juan Nicasio, Michael Cuddyer

Plenty of runs in Coors, but most by the visitors.

These guys still kill opposing pitchers at home, which is nice until you remember that their pitchers also get killed at home. The aforementioned "J’s" are De La Rosa, Chacin, Nicasio, Francis, and Garland. The first three are young and talented, the last two would get lit up in AAA. I do think Nicasio will be a star. He was on the brink when he suffered an awful injury in 2011 when he took a liner off his head, and then injured his knee last season. He has electric stuff.

The Rockies have some nice hitters home or away, in Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Dexter Fowler appears to be on the verge of being a star, and Rutledge showed huge promise at the end of last season when Tulowitzki was hurt (again). The catcher is Wilin Rosario, who may hit 35 homer while committing 45 passed balls, and creaky Todd Helton is back for one more go-round at first base while former prospect Tyler Colvin bides his time in AAA. Michael Cuddyer is a very good hitter who missed 61 games last season due to injuries.

The bullpen is strong with Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and Lopez setting up Rafael Bettancourt.

Prediction: 4^th Place

The Rockies will kick the snot out of some teams in Coors Field, and watch Garland and Francis get the snot kicked out them at home and away. I think they’ll win more games than San Diego, but if both teams lose 90+ who cares?

San Diego Padres

Team motto: Losing 6-5 now, instead of 2-1!
Hello: Jedd Gyorko
Goodbye: Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson
Pleasant surprise player? Yonder Alonso
Nice comeback player: Carlos Quentin

The fences are in, but will the fans be?

Even before last year’s breakout star Chase Headley got hurt in spring training, this was a bad team. Why San Diego ownership decided to move the fences in and make Petco more of a hitters park from what had been a haven for pitchers had to have been a move to boost attendance, because it’s sure not going to help a team with so many poor MLB players?

Edinson Volquez a heads up an poor-to-mediocre rotation that may cause an excellent bullpen to be over-used by mid-May? Huston Street is still an excellent closer, and with Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, and Andrew Cashner backing him up the Padres should be able to protect the few leads they will take into the last few innings of those games.

Yonder Alonso, who was stymied by Joey Votto being the Red’s first baseman in Cincinnati, is a talented player who should develop into a good power hitter. If Carlos Quentin can ever stay healthy enough to play more than 120 games in a season he will put up 40 homers. Problem is, he’s only played more than 120 that twice in his career. Former first round Miami draft pick Cameron Maybin showed some skills after an awful start to the 2101 season, and short stop Everth Cabrera may lead the majors in steals, assuming he can reach first base enough?

Prediction: 5^th Place

This team may have a hard time scoring runs in Colorado, and with the pitching they have it could get ugly early and often. Maybe rookie Jedd Gyorko infielder will provide some life support to the anemic offense until Headley is back. Pitcher Cory Luebke is a talented pitcher recovering from TJS, and should be back around the All Star break. Neither player will be enough from keeping this team from losing 100 games.

Nickel recap:

Maybe the Giants keep everyone healthy and they all produce like 2012?  Maybe the Dodgers roll a bunch of 7's? I know the Rockies and Padres are bad, so that leaves me with Arizona. Maybe this is the season I get this division right?

American League -- Central

Detroit Tigers

Team Motto: Gettin’ Miggy wid it!
Hello: Torii Hunter
Goodbye: Delmon Young
Pleasant surprise player? Andy Dirks
Nice comeback player: Victor Martinez


Miggy gave up Crown Royal for a Triple Crown

This is a team built to win it all, and there are few weaknesses unless they incur at least two major injuries. Victor Martinez missed all of 2012, and the Tigers were able to cruise home. If Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, and Prince Fielder all go down, they may still have enough?

The rotation is solid and good, with Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and (the next Verlander?) Max Scherzer (the next Verlander?), and the bullpen is solid, even if they don’t have an anointed closer to date.

Torii Hunter is declining and Jhonny Peralta is weak defensively, but there is a Miggy clone in Avisail Garcia waiting in the wings to add another excellent bat to a team that will score a lot of runs.

Prediction: 1^st Place

I have a hunch that this is the season in which Scherzer emerges as an elite starter, and Andy Dirks could finally solve the revolving door problem Jim Leyland has had in left field.

Cleveland Indians

Team motto: We’re Tito-licious!
Hello: Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Drew Stubbs, Brett Myers, Matt Reynolds
Goodbye: Shin-Soo Choo
Pleasant surprise player? Lonnie Chissenhall
Nice comeback player: Brett Myers

Swisher will be a great add.

Ballplayers love having Terry Francona as a manager, that is a given, so right away this is a team that will always give their best all the time. If Chissenhall at third finally lives up to his prospect hype the infield will be excellent, with Asbrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis and Swisher around the horn. I think the Yankees made a big mistake letting Swisher walk away? Bourn is capable of hitting .300, scoring 100+ runs, and leading MLB is stolen bases, and Michael Brantley continues to get better.

Vinnie Pestano is a great 8^th inning guy setting up Chris Perez who has solidified his skills. The big question for the Indians is their starting rotation? Can Justin Masterson figure out a way to get left-handed hitters out? Can Ubaldo Jimenez re-capture the magic that saw him average 15 wins a year from 2008-2010? Zach McCallister is a nice sleeper, and Carlos Carrasco brings back his electric skills after missing all of 2012 after TJS.

Prediction: 2^nd Place

I think the veteran presence of Brett Myers in the rotation will be a good one, and Carlos Santana is an All Star catcher, though he needs to improve defensively. Trevor Bauer is one of the top pitching prospects in all of MLB. If the pitching takes a step up, this is a playoff team.

　

Kansas City Royals

Team motto: This is "next year," or next year will be!
Hello: James Shields, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana
Goodbye: Wil Myers
Pleasant surprise player? Lorenzo Cain
Nice comeback player: Ervin Santana

Less dancin' and more hittin' for Moose & Hosmer?

The Royals trade top prospect Myers to Tampa Bay to land a top starting pitcher in Shields, along with middlin’ starter Davis serving notice that they think they are ready to challenge for a division title, or at least a wild card spot. They also acquired Santana, who if he can ever solve his gopheritis could be a solid number 2 or 3 starter.

The bullpen is loaded with very nice talent in Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, and Tim Collins. Former top draft pick Danny Duffy is waiting his turn after having TJS surgery last year.

The line up is loaded with young stars, and potential stars. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are good, and it looks like (catcher) Salvador Perez and shortstop Alcides Escobar will be? The two big questions are much hyped prospects Mike Moustakas (3B) and Eric Hosmer (1B)? They both had disappointing 2012 seasons.

Prediction: 3^rd Place

They have a couple of burners in outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson, and I look for Dyson to push the disaster known as Jeff Francoeur to the bench at some point. Hosmer and Moustakas must take a big step up for this team to be good enough to over-come what may be a shaky rotation after Shields. They can make the post-season if those two do come through and the 2-5 starters are good enough, but I think 2014 is their year.

Chicago White Sox

Team motto: We’re still better than the Cubs!
Hello: Jeff Keppinger
Goodbye: AJ Pierzynski
Pleasant surprise player? Dylan Axelrod
Nice comeback player: John Danks

Maybe the old days were better after all?

Remember when (Chicago manager) Robin Ventura charged the mound, and old timer Nolan Ryan put a head lock on him, and pounded away? How about when Ventura had that awful broken leg sliding into home? This season may not be quite as humiliating or physically painful as those two experiences, but 90 loses and an ulcer may be on the horizon?

It’s not that the Sox don’t have some talent, but Paul Konerko is going to stop hitting soon, Adam Dunn is windier than the Windy City, and Alex Rios is the epitome of that "box of chocolates."   Catcher Tyler Flowers may hit a bunch of homers, but not much else, and Gordon Beckham has yet to fulfill his early promise. Dayan Viciedo will be just all right, and Alexi Ramirez is very under-rated as an all-around short stop.

The top two guys in the rotation, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy are very good, but it’s mediocre after that. John Danks was a star in the making until he got hurt last year, and he’ll need to come all the way back if Chicago is going to challenge.

The bullpen is average, with Addison Reed looking like he could be pretty good, and old reliable Matt Thornton still good in a set-up role.

Prediction: 4^th Place

Keppinger is a nice player, but he shouldn’t be a full-time starter at third. Not much team speed, and a weak bench. I have never liked Gavin Floyd much, and I don’t know why?  I could be wrong and Konerko, Dunn and Rios (making a combined $48.5 million this season) will all come up big, but I this is still a team going down, not up.

Minnesota Twins

Team motto: Who are these guys?
Hello: Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley
Goodbye: Denard Span, Ben Revere
Pleasant surprise player? Chris Parmelee
Nice comeback player: Justin Morneau

Who are those guys?

It seems like Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire has been around forever, doesn’t it? He has seen good times and bad in his 11 seasons running the Twins, and has often over-achieved during than time. This year, he will need to work a lot of magic if this team is to contend for anything, except staying out of last place.

The pitching staff is a mess of retreads (Pelfrey, Correia) and wannabe’s (Worley, and Scott Diamond). They gave speedsters Ben Revere to the Phillies for Worley, and Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, so they’re trying to improve things, but it’s not happening soon. The bullpen doesn’t offer much after Jared Burton setting up Glenn Perkins.

I would bet you could ask a lot of very knowledgeable baseball fans who Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier are, and they couldn’t ell you that they are slated to man second and short for the Twins this year?

Prediction: 5^th Place

Minnesota will have some thump in their line up, as Josh Willingham hit 35 homers in 2012, Morneau is back and (finally) healthy, and of course Mister Twin, Joe Mauer is still a great hitter. Trevor Plouffe and Parmelee are potential 20-25 home run guys, and Ryan Doumit is a good hitter if he can stay healthy, which has happened seldom in his career. Top prospect Aaron Hicks won the job in center with a hot spring, but I think he may have needed a bit more time in AAA?

Nickel recap:

Too much would need to go wrong for Detroit to not win the division, but I do like the Indians to push them, and for the Royals to push Cleveland. If the Twins are pushing Chicago by the All Star break, look for Robin Ventura to be fired. If that does happen at least it’ll be a lot less painful than a Nolan Ryan noogie or a broken leg.

NCAA Hoop Pools: Don’t try to out run the Bear

So it was a great game Monday night, wasn’t it? Over all #1 seed Louisville beats Michigan, and the "madness" ends with a shower of cash for those folks that were able to pick winners better than their friends, family, coworkers, or 9 million people in the ESPN pool.

A Cardinal celebration!

It is estimated that there is almost as much money bet on the tournament as the total take from all the Sports Books in Las Vegas in any given year. This isn’t anything surprising, as Vegas knows they only handle a very small percentage of the total money gambled in this country every year.

What’s different about March Madness is that it "infects" people from all over the country in ways that go beyond the Super Bowl. People that would never bet on a football game will pony up $1.00 to $10.00 to $100 or more and fill out their brackets to pick their college team to win, simply because they are playing, or pick the school close to where they live because they are in the tourney, and may  win, no matter how lousy the odds.

In some ways it’s not unlike those big Super Bowl charts that are cut into 100 squares, and you buy a square or 2, for a dollar or 20 dollars. Then, someone randomly draws numbers out of a hat or a bowl, and you get some combination of numbers that will win you money if any end of quarter scores in the game ends in 5 and 2, 0 and 7,or 8 and 5.

But in realty, NCAA pools are much different, because you need to pick the winners of 63-games, some of which may never occur? You must dope it out, as they used to say, and you find yourself filling in all those blanks based on something, but what?

I have known and/or heard of folks using intuition, deep knowledge of the teams, flip of the coin, fiercest mascot, team colors, cutest cheerleaders?

So, how does a person win money in one of these things?

I have some theories that I have honed and refined over the years while participating in, and winning money in NCAA pools, and the basic 3-part formula is really very simple:

Part #1 – Don’t try to out run the bear.

Question: Okay, what the hell does that mean?

Answer: Have you heard the story about the two guys hiking in the woods when they spot a grizzly bear nearby? One guy says to the other, "What do we do the bear starts chasing us?" The other guy says, "We run." The first guy says, "Don’t be stupid, we can’t out run the bear." And the other guy answers, "Don’t you be stupid, I don’t have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you."

You can't out run me.

What I am saying is based on the pool you are in, don’t try to out run the bear, just out run the guy running next to you. You won’t need to be perfect or close to perfect like someone trying to win the 9,000,000+ entry ESPN pool.

So, the strategy is to get into a pool that will have a reasonable number of entries, say 100 or so, at $10 a pop. Try to find one where a fair percentage of the entries will be from people with little or no knowledge of the game. I am speaking about folks who’ll ante up money for their 6-year old daughter or their blind, old, invalid Auntie Fanny. There are also those that got in because dear old alma mater South Framagassit State won their conference tourney, and they are now certain that the old Puce & Jade Swamp Foxes will go to the Final 4.

In other words, find a pool with a number of entries you can be pretty sure will be losers before the opening tip of game 1.

Part #2 - Use the "Rule of 8"

This used to be the Rule of 9, but that was about 4 or 5 years ago, before so many of the top college players started jumping to the NBA after one year. This has opened up the tournament to mid-major schools (often) with junior and senior laden teams that are experienced and poised enough to advance 3 or even 4 rounds, {See Butler (twice) VCU, Wichita State, George Mason}

The Rule of 9 stated: Pick a Final 4 with teams whose total seeding added up to 9 or less. Problem is now that 3 of the last 4 years the sum of the Final 4 seeds has been 18, 9, 26, and 13. Things are changing, and it’s more likely that we’ll continue to see an 8 or higher seeded team make it to the Final 4.

I have revised my parameters to the Rule of 8, which states:

Have 3 of the 4 teams in the Final 4 with seeds that add up to 8 or less. In the 30 years that the field has been 64 or more teams that has occurred 26 out of 30 times, or 86.6%.

There is actually nothing wrong with picking all four #1 seeds to get to the Final 4, even though it’s only happened one time. The most important pick you will make is who will win the championship? In the last 30 years, 90% of the time, a top 3 seed has won it. 19 #1 seeds, four #2’s, and four #3’s. If you must pick as team other than a #1 seed, pick a 2 or a 3, but don’t cry when they don’t win it. #1-seeds have won 63.3% of the time, including 7 of the last 9 years.

Part #3 – Submit multiple entries

Most friendly pools allow folks to submit at least three entries, and if they don’t, you can always put one in for grandpa, or your 4-year old. If you can’t influence them, just forge their signature and send it in anyway. Seriously, I am not saying you should cheat the rules of the pool, just find one that will allow you multiple entries. I will always submit at least 3-sheets in a 50-entry pool, and 4 or 5 in a pool with around 100. Roughly 5% of the entries should be yours. Trust me, if you follow the above three guidelines you will win some money within a year or 3.

So, how did I do this year?

In a pool of 56 entries (at $10 per entry) I submitted four.  I won 3^rd place and $112. I had Louisville winning it, but I barely edged out the 4^th place entry on the tiebreaker (which was picking the tourney champ), and needed Louisville to win last night.

Great game lads, great game.

My lovely wife Susan submitted 2 entries. Her first sheet had Louisville winning it all. Louisville was the most popular choice to win, named on 16 of all the entries. I nudged her to fill out another sheet, and when she handed it to me, I looked immediately to see who she had picked to win it, and here was Louisville again.

"Susan," I asked, "you really want to pick Louisville again?"

"Yes Charlie, I don’t have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you."

Guess what, that was the winning entry.

I caught you.

Smart lady, and today she is $280 richer too.

Kershaw or Koufax? I’ll take Pedro.

There’s an old baseball story that I love, though it’s more than likely apocryphal. The story I heard was that (66-year old) Rogers Hornsby was in Florida in the spring of 1962 as a coach for Casey

Hit better than .400 over 5 years.

Stengel, and the inaugural New York Mets. Hornsby, of course, is the all time best right-handed hitter in baseball history with a .358 average, and at one time held the record for most homers in a career and season by a second baseman. He won 8 batting titles, led the league in homers twice, and RBI 4 times. In a 5-season stretch from 1921 through 1925 he averaged batting over .400, beating .400 in three of those seasons.

Anyway, Hornsby is out on the field, trying to teach a bunch of mostly inept Met players what he can about the game, and some sportswriter asks Casey, "What do you think Hornsby would hit if he played now?"

Casey thought for a few seconds and said, "I don’t know probably around .320 or so."

"Only .320 Casey, isn’t that a knock against the players from back then?"

"Well, " Casey said, "you gotta allow for him being 66 years old, doncha?"

A couple of days ago there was a story that drew comparisons between 2011 National League Cy Young award winner, LA Dodger Clayton Kershaw, and a former Dodger, 3-time Cy Young award winner, and Hall of Famer, Sandy Koufax.


One day, he may be better than Sandy?

I guess the comparison was inevitable because they are similarly built and dominant left-handed flame-throwers, but that’s where the comparison ends. And how can we really compare two pitchers whose careers are separated by 45 years?

"The left hand of God"

We can do this because it’s what baseball fans have always done – holding never-ending and pointless arguments about who is/was/will be better is life blood to the game.

So, lets talk about Kershaw and Koufax, then I will tell you why Montreal Expo and Boston Red Sox pitcher  Pedro Martinez was probably the best pitcher to ever play major league baseball.

The voluble and accessible Kershaw was born in Dallas, just turned 25 in March, and has already enjoyed 4 excellent seasons. The minimum MLB salary for 2013 is $490.000. Kershaw will make about $7.5 million this year

The private and always soft-spoken Koufax was born in Brooklyn, and didn’t have his first good season with the Dodgers until 1961, when he was 25 years old. He had been used sparingly after being signed as a 19-year old "Bonus Baby" out of high school. MLB rules at the time (1955) demanded that any player signed to a bonus of $50,000 or more must spend 2-years with his major league team or become a free agent. Counting his bonus, in Sandy’s career, he earned about $481,000, total.

During Sandy’s first 6 seasons he was 36-40, with an ERA over 4.0, and walked about half as many batters as he struck out, walking around 100 batters in 3 different seasons.

Then, beginning in 1961 it all began to click, and Koufax won 18 games, lowered his ERA to 3.5, and led the majors (by 48) in strikeouts.

In 1962, the Dodgers led the NL almost all the way, but Koufax (who led the league in ERA, and struck out 4 for every walk) got hurt, and the Giants caught LA, beat them (and Sandy) in a playoff, and went on the World Series.

After that, Sandy was simply the best pitcher in baseball for 4 straight seasons. During these 4 years Koufax averaged 25 wins, 8 shutouts, 22 complete games, 298 innings, and 307 strikeouts, with a 1.86 ERA.

In those four seasons Sandy Koufax won 3 Cy Young awards and one Most Valuable Player. He missed about 12 starts in 1964 and still finished 3^rd in the Cy Young voting after winning 19 games and leading the league in ERA. It doesn’t take much of an argument to say the Dodgers would have won 5 straight NL pennants had Koufax not been hurt in 1962 & 1964.

Koufax was better in the World Series, with an ERA of 0.95, and 61 strikeouts in 57 innings, though his won/lost record was only 4-3.

Koufax felt he had no choice but to retire after the 1966 season, as his left arm had been giving almost unrelenting pain from a traumatic arthritic condition in his elbow for more than 2 years. He was 30 years old.

At 77, you look great Sandy.

So, Clayton Kershaw already has a nice head start in years on Sandy, but he will have to produce at least 3 or 4 more years like the last 2 he’s had, to get into the conversation. He may, he may not. He absolutely has the talent to do so.

Sandy Koufax was the best I ever saw, or so I thought.

In recent years we have found out about all the cheating that was going on for about 10-years (1993-2003) or so with PED usage in sports, and particularly in MLB. Record amounts of runs and home runs were being accumulated by dozens of hitters, and more dozens of records were falling every year.

Back in the final 5 years of Koufax’s career (1962 to 1966), the National League’s average ERA’s were: 3.97; 3.63; 3.63; 3.46; 3.44.

Koufax was anywhere from 1.42 to 1.79 better than the league average during those 5 seasons, which is truly outstanding.

If we take Pedro Martinez’s 7 year run from 1997 through 2003, in the dead heart of the "steroid era," Pedro beat the average ERA is his league by: 3.04; 1.77; 2.80; 3.18; 2.08; 2.21, and 2.31, which is truly astounding!

Was Martinez really better than Koufax?

I am not so naïve to think Martinez was clean of PED’s during this time, but he was a pretty slight guy at 5’11" and 170, and after tossing 233.2 innings in 1998 (his first in the AL) he never had more than 217 in any season. Martinez was 25 years old in 1997, when he started his fantastic 7-year run, just as Koufax was 25 in 1962. Pedro always seemed to be getting rested a bit more than one might expect, and only had 21 complete games in the six years after 1997. As stated earlier, Sandy averaged 22 complete games a year in his last 4 seasons. I don’t know, maybe Pedro was using something, maybe not, but if he was, why weren’t the other pitchers of the era following suit? Why don’t we see more numbers like Martinez put up from other starting pitchers during those years?

Another piece of information tells us that in Koufax’s final 4 seasons, the league average runs-scored per-team was around 4 per game.

In Pedro’s six seasons from 1998 through 2003, the league averaged 5-runs or better three times, and 4.8 or better in the other three seasons. Martinez did not have the luxury, as Koufax did, of facing the opposing pitcher as a batter 1-4 times per game.

Pedro matched Sandy’s 3 Cy Young awards, and though he never managed to win an MVP, he did finish second once, and fifth one other time. He also had two second-place and one third-place in the Cy Young balloting.

Pedro matches Sandy with 3 ERA titles and 3 times leading in strikeouts. Pedro had a higher strikeout-per-inning ratio than Sandy, but it the MLB average in that department has been going up steadily for decades. Both men had similar and excellent WHIP’s (walks+hits/innings).

Koufax hit a total of 18 men with a pitch in his career. Sometimes it seemed as though Martinez hit that many in a month, and actually had 6 seasons in which he hit 10 or more batters, but only twice during his 7-year run of excellence. Part of Pedro’s success has to be attributed to his brush back pitch, and his willingness to throw at a batter. Koufax left that stuff to teammate Don Drysdale. Sandy would just snap off one of his patented 12-to-6 curveballs and strike a guy out.



"Down goes Zimmer!"  Zim was Sandy's teammate for 4 years.

So, what does all this mean? Does it prove anything?

Yes, and no. It doesn’t prove that Martinez was a better pitcher than Koufax, but I am fairly certain it does prove that for their prime seasons (5 for Sandy, and 7 for Pedro) that Martinez was easily superior to Koufax when we compare them to their league averages.

So, in that respect, I have to give the nod to Pedro.

I don’t know how Sandy would fare today, pitching in the majors. If I had to guess, he only win 15-18 a year, and strike out somewhere around 220 in 210 innings, with an ERA in the 2.75 range. Very good, but not great.

The "Rajah."

Okay, hold it, before any of you Sandy Koufax fans get all riled up and mad at me please remember that I have always been a big fan of his too, and that Sandy is 77-years old.

And Rogers has been dead for 50 years, and could still hit .315.

　

　

Baseball names? Just give me the Coot Veal.

I read an amusing story in the New York Times today about goofy baseball names, and then a friend of mine (Drew) posted something about a couple of names that crack him up every time he sees or hears them.


Bet is was painful.

Go figure?

Drew mentioned Seattle pitcher Charlie Furbush, and Detroit pitcher Al Albuquerque

I first laughed at Charlie Furbush last season, not only for my being a ‘Charlie,’ as it also reminded me of a couple of old stories about my ex-wife (Ruth), who for all our other differences, had a great and ironic sense of humor.

We were on a vacation trip once, driving from Tucson (AZ) to Flagstaff and passed a sign around Sedona that read, " Wet Beaver Creek – 8 Miles."

Ruth mused (to me), "Bet you’d like to dip your pole into that one, huh?"



Wanna dip your pole?

She was a pretty big baseball fan, and we were watching a game on the tube when the Kansas City Royal 1^st baseman, Pete LaCock, came to bat. He is/was (then) famous game show host Peter Marshall’s son, and you old guys can back me up on this.

Just a little bit inside

Anyway, Pete is up at bat, and the pitcher smokes a fast ball – really tight inside, and Pete has to dramatically jack-knife out of harms way.

Ruth remarked, "He was almost Pete La, after that one."

Ruth seemingly single-mindedness aside, there actually was a pitcher (and later pitching coach) named Dick Pole. I sometimes wonder if the world would end if he ever visited Wet Beaver Creek? There was another former player and coach named Coot Veal – I am not making these names up – who sounds like some dish you’d find at a place like Nouveau, a "fusion restaurant" in Brooklyn. They make their Coot Veal out of young, fatted calf, and skinny, old coots .

Have with fava beans, and a nice Chianti!

I had an old joke I used to tell, when dumb-ass Steve Sax was the Dodger second baseman, and OrelHersheiser was the LA star pitcher. The joke would work best with baseball fans when I told them that Sax and his wife were expecting their first child, and if was a boy they were going to name him after Orel…

Second best name all time is a guy that I saw pitch in Connie Mack Stadium in the early 1960’s. He was known simply as Cal McLish, but his full, legal name was Calvin Coolidge Julius Caesar Tuskahoma McLish.

But still, to me, the #1 best baseball name of all time is I Don’t Care… he’s our shortstop.

National League -- Central

Cincinnati Reds

Billy could steal 125+?

Team Motto: Votto Mojo!
Hello: Shin-Soo Choo
Goodbye: Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen,
Pleasant surprise player? Todd Frazier
Nice comeback player: Jonathan Broxton

Assuming noted pitcher-killer Dusty Baker doesn’t over-work his top two starting pitchers (Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto), and the team doesn’t suffer any major injuries, the Reds should ease into the post-season again. Choo is a sub-par centerfielder, and it should be about mid-season when top shortstop prospect Billy Hamilton has learned the nuances of outfield play to well enough to perhaps allow Choo to move to left?

Frazier could be a homer-hitting stud in the making at third, and even shortstop Zack Cozart may hit 20 in the cozy Great American Ballpark? Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips are All Stars, and the 3-5 guys in the rotation should be good enough.

Not a lot of team speed, and the defense isn’t great, but they’ll score a ton of runs.

Prediction: 1^st Place

Moving Aroldis Chapman back to closer was the right move for this team for now, and it will allow Dusty to use his solid bullpen (Broxton, Sean Marshall and emerging star JJ Hoover) in lower-pressure roles.

　

St. Louis Cardinals

Team motto: Tony who?
Hello: Ty Wigginton
Goodbye: Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse

Who am I, what am I, why am I?

Pleasant surprise player? Matt Carpenter
Nice comeback player: Adam Wainwright

The consensus is that aside from Tampa Bay, the Cards have the deepest stock of pitching in MLB, which is why they could let Lohse walk away without a care. With Trevor Rosenthal throwing 100-MPH, Shelby Miller taking Lohse’s spot, and Mitch Boggs taking over the closer role while Jason Motte is on the DL, St. Louis may have the best pitching in the NL this side of Washington and Atlanta.

The Cards also have a young hitter named Oscar Taveras who emerged last year as a Vlade Guerrero clone, according to all reports. He is one (more) Carlos Beltran injury away from being in a fairly good line up. The problem for the Cards is keeping two of their best hitters, David Freese and Allen Craig, on the field. Both always seem to be battling some kind of injury.

Matt Holiday and Yadier Molina are stars, but it’s critical that Matt Carpenter’s transition to second base works, and that shortstop Pete Kozma can handle MLB pitching.

Prediction: 2^nd Place

This club always seems to find a way to get it done, but they will need Wainwright to come back and be the pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010 when he won 39 games, before TJS took him out for all of the 2011 season

Milwaukee Brewers

Team motto: Who needs a bullpen!
Hello: Kyle Lohse, Mike Gonzalez

Maybe this was what he used the PED's for?

Goodbye: Nyjer (Tony Plush) Morgan, Randy Wolf, Francisco Rodriguez
Pleasant surprise player? Jean Segura
Nice comeback player: Alex Gonzalez

The bullpen is still a mess unless John Axford finds a way out of the darkness. Maybe Mike Gonzalez (who has had some past success) will assume the role, though managers are not inclined to give lefties the role? They have some young pitchers in Wily Peralta, and Tyler Thornburg with potential, and 27-year old Mike Fiers that showed some skill last year. Might be worth giving Fiers a shot at the role if he continues to struggle in the rotation?

Losing first baseman Corey Hart until sometime in May, and his back up, Mat Gamel (for the season) hurts. Putting career shortstop Alex Gonzalez there is a gamble, but Gonzalez (himself out all of last season) has some pop in his bat, and is a veteran guy that will do a good job. They need a solid, full season out of Rickie Weeks, and strong follow up seasons from Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki. The catching is solid with John Lucroy and Martin Maldonado is a solid back up.

Prediction: 3^rd Place

Hard to say if MLB will catch Ryan Braun this time around in a PED net, and can Aramis Ramirez keep producing at age 34? Yovani Gallardo still seems on the verge of being an ace, and Marco Estrada had some electric moments but has lacked consistency. Two many questions and not a lot of answers off the bench. If they stay healthy form here on out, and if most of the pitching comes through, this team can beat the Reds. That’s a lot of "ifs."

　

Pittsburgh Pirates

Team motto: Wait till next year…again!
Hello: Russell Martin, Mark Melancon
Goodbye: Joel Hanrahan, Eric Bedard
Pleasant surprise player? Starling Marte
Nice comeback player: Mark Melancon



It's up to you Pittsburgh, Peeeee Aaaaaa!

The Pirates again pretended to be a player by leading the division in mid-July only to run out of gas when their pitching gave way (again) and be 10 games back by the end of August.

Andrew McCutcheon is a super star, but there is little else worth getting excited about on the hitting side of things. Neal Walker is good, and they have some nice outfielders that may breakout in Marte, and Alex Presley, but wasn’t it only last year we were saying that about Jose Tabata?

Pedro Alvarez is a .235, 30-homer, 160-K hitter, and Garrett Jones should not be batting clean up in a MLB line up.

AJ "Can’t make it in New York but can do in Pittsburgh" Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are okay starters, but they are 3# or #4 guys really, and James McDonald’s great start to last year gave way to disaster down the stretch. Jason Grilli is the new closer, but I look for Melancon to come back (after his meltdown in Boston last year) and emerge as the closer at some point.

Prediction: 4^th Place

There are a couple of nice pitching prospects (Gerrit Cole and James Taillon) that may be up early on, and it might be a good idea to get these guys in there soon? I don’t think team contends at all like the Pirates teams of 2011 and 2012, so why wait?

　

Chicago Cubs

Team motto: We’re better than Houston…oh wait…
Hello: Edwin Jackson, Carlos Villanueva, Scott Hairston
Goodbye: Ton Campana, Reed Johnson
Pleasant surprise player? Kyugi Fujikawa
Nice comeback player: David DeJesus

Wow, blew that one waaaaay up there!

The Cubs, unlike the Pirates, are on their way up in the world, though they may still lose close to 100 games this season. If Matt Garza can come back soon, and Travis Wood continues to get better, those two and Jeff Samardzija along with Jackson form a nice 1-4 in the rotation.

Anthony Rizzo at firstbase is a home run hitting star in the making, and they’ll love this guy in Chicago. Starling Castro is already an All Star, and they’ve got a couple of kids named Jorge Soler and Javier Baez that aren’t too far way.

Carlos Marmol is not long for the closer spot. Look for Fujikawa to take it over early on, and save 5 heart Cub fan heart attacks a month.

Prediction: 5^th Place

Hairston and DeJesus will platoon and should produce some very nice numbers. If Alfonso Soriano has one more year like 2012 in him, and Garza comes back strong, they are not far away from being a .500 team. It ain’t a World Series, but it’s the right start down the road to one.

Nickel recap:

It may seem like a cop out picking the divsion as I have, but it's hard to see any other scenario without  a huge number of injuries to the Reds and Cards, or multiple strokes of good fortune for the Brewers?  I could see Chicago challenging for third place if Milwaukee's pitching goes in the tank, and certainly St. Louis could win it, but over all, this was the easiest division for me to predict.