Zach Greinke goes to Milwaukee

ESPN is reporting that the Brewers and Kansas City Royals have worked out a trade that would bring the 2008 AL Cy Young pitcher Zach Greinke to the Brewers for a couple of prospects.

Assuming the deal gets done, it moves the Brewers firmly into the mix for the NL Central title in 2011, and becomes further validation that the Royals will remain a AAAA team.

2011 World Series Odds

I'm a guy that has often liked to bet on sporting events through the many years. I'm always curious about baseball odds at various times, especially during the off season. The GM meetings may be over, but teams are constantly shuffling players on and off their 40-man rosters, trading, and trying to sign free agents.  If you check BoDog.com today, below you'd see these odds, that they have posted for the 15 teams they make out to be no worse than 30-1 to win 2011 World Series:

Phillies 3-1
Red Sox 5-1
Yankees 6-1
Giants 12-1
Twins 18-1
Rangers, Cardinals, Rays, and Rockies 20-1
Braves 22-1
White Sox, Angels, and Reds 25-1
Tigers 28-1
Dodgers 30-1

Some things jumped out at me right away.
The Giants being the 4^th favorite is a sucker bet. No team has repeated since 2000, and it won’t be San Francisco that breaks the streak. The magical ride they had last season never happens twice in a row. When Aubrey Huff and a rookie catcher (albeit a great one) are your #3 and #4 hitters, everything else needs to work just right. Remember that up until the day before the regular season ended, the Padres had been in first place in the NL West for almost the entire summer.

If you want a nice long shot to wager on out of this group, try the White Sox at 25-1. Yeah, I know I am on the record as a huge Ozzie Guillen guy, but I’m not saying this as a fan. I still like the Reds a little bit too, but now that Dusty has had some success, he’ll proceed to screw things up. Small bet on Reds winning it all, maybe?  Bigger bet on Dusty finishing below .500?  Maybe a better bet?

I think both LA teams are very bad bets, though the Angels might perk up if Artie Moreno ever opens his wallet?

Do you want a bigger long shot than 25-1? Right now, the Milwaukee Brewers at 60-1 are an interesting play to me. It’s not like St. Louis has done much to improve, and the Reds are vulnerable with all those kids playing such big roles, aren’t they Dusty?

I am usually pretty good at this sort of thing, though I reserve the right to change my mind at any time, and hedge my bets. I’ll go all in on any bets and predictions right around the beginning of the regular season, but right now, on futures picks, I’d put $100 on Chicago, and $50 on the Brewers.

In early April of 2009, I went on the record picking Cincinnati and Texas to win their divisions, and in April 2008, I was telling everyone watch out for Tampa Bay. I know I fanned on picking Arizona last year, and totally writing off San Diego, but everyone wrote off San Diego. I have picked against the Yankees for the last 10 years, and been correct 9 times. Aside from my family and my friends, little has made me happier than being right about this fact, 90% of the time.

Last, I like that the Washington Nationals at 65-1, are at lower odds than 7 other teams. All they need now is Shoeless Joe from Hannibal, MO, and I am laying down the cash!

Lebron James and Cliff Lee, plus Manny, Albert, Bob Feller, and the Erie Separation

Screw New York…yeah, that’s what I said.

Do people in New York hate Lebron James because he left the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat, taking less money (he said), because he felt it gave him a much better chance to win a championship. Do they also think he’s obnoxious for saying things like "taking my talents to South Beach," and the odd remarks about burnishing his legacy? Do they hate him for not accepting an offer to play for the Knicks?

My guess is that they don’t, because I don’t think anyone thought the Knicks would have much going for them this season. Every "expert" I read thought Amar’e Stoudemire would be nothing but a high-priced guy to boo at MSG, without Steve Nash.

With that in mind, it’s obvious to me that Cliff Lee is now (and will forever be) hated by Yankee fans because he took less money and rejected the New York Frikkin’ Yankees! How can anyone say "No" to the Yankees is something beyond reason to millions of people in Manhattan, the Bronx and most of New Jersey. Not only that, he went to the Phillies, so Mets fans now hate Lee as well. Luckily, there are only about 47 Mets fans left, scattered along the dunes of Jones Beach, looking for the BMT to Shea Stadium. (These folks are no doubt suffering from the "Minaya Effect.)

Being from New York (growing up just 25 miles north of Times Square) gives me some perspective on this type of thing with New Yorkers – it’s called being really obnoxious. I’m obnoxious, and I am not a Yankee fan, so imagine how bad I’d be if I lived and died with the "pin stripes?" This over-bearing character defect is generally true with folks that grew up in NY, and still live there, and almost always true with Yankee fans, because it’s been a part of their DNA for almost 100 years. But because the New York Knicks have been losers or also rans since the early 1970’s, few ever thought that adding Lebron to Amar’e would be enough to make the team a viable contender any time soon. (Carmelo Anthony better become a Knick, and he better be good)

Well, I can still remember being a huge Knick fan. The 2 teams that won NBA championships are still my favorite NBA teams of all time, and arguably the best balanced, best passing, and best nicknamed teams in history: The Captain - Willis Reed, Walt "Clyde" Frazier, Earl "The Pearl" Monroe, Dick "Fall Back Baby" Barnett, "Dollar" Bill Bradley. The 1973 team also had Phil Jackson. He was a gawky looking ‘power’ forward in the Joakim Noah style, with one big exception – talent. Phil’s hair was bizarre, maybe he needed a nickname?

The Knick teams with Patrick Ewing were pretty good too – worth rooting for, but they couldn’t get past the Spurs, the Bulls, Reggie Miller, and a number of other teams. We had to get by with Spike Lee.

What I want to know from New Yorkers is why am I not seeing more hate for Lebron? Don’t the Knicks matter, or are all you loud-mouthed jerks just front running Yankee fans?

Well, SCREW THE YANKEES, and SCREW YANKEE FANS!

It is not a divine right that the Yankees win, and so they didn’t win a World Series. Hell, they didn’t even win their own division! Time to buy more players!

But now look what has happened, the Yankees lost another one when Cliff Lee signed with Philadelphia. Go figure? Not only that, the Boss is dead, Jeter is pissed, Joba is a mess, A-Rod is A-Rod, and you have Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova holding up the back end of your rotation. Sounds like a lot of ‘duck butter’ to me. (If you don’t know what ‘duck butter’ is, I’ll only say that it’s sticky and smells really bad.)

In addition, Yankee fans have to stomach Boston signing Carl Crawford and trading for Adrian Gonzalez, hugely improving their offense. Crawford is my 2011 AL MVP pick right now, and Gonzalez will be in the top 10.

Hey, I am not a Boston fan, only a Yankee hater, and what Yankee hater doesn’t love this? I’m not a Cliff Lee fan either, and have said repeatedly that I won’t believe he’s as good as we’ve been told until he does it for at least 2 or 3 more years, but I love him for snubbing the Yankees.

Remember when Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia were both with the Cleveland Indians? I seem to recall Lebron at a Cleveland – New York playoff game wearing a Yankee hat? Is that why New Yorkers don’t hate Lebron, because he’s a Yankee fan? Therefore they can’t hate him for not taking the Knicks offer?

Did Cleveland offer Cliff Lee a contract? Not really. They had to let him go a few years ago because ownership didn’t feel they could afford him. Lee became a vagabond, pitching for the Phils, Mariners, and Texas before landing back with Philadelphia. CC went to Milwaukee as a "loaner," and established a new market price ($161 MM) for stud pitchers when the Yankees got him in Free Agency. The biggest contract the Yankees had ever given to a pitcher before that was the $105 MM they’d given to Kevin Brown in 1999. (How did that one work out?)

In 1997, Albert Belle left Cleveland for the White Sox. Do you remember what a fantastic hitter Belle was? Steroid riddled or not, Belle had hit 98 homeruns and driven in 274 runs in his last 2 seasons for the Indians. His top salary had been $5.7 MM. He went to Chicago for 2-years, and $20 MM. He’d averaged 49 homers and got 2-years and $20 MM. Seems like the Stone Age…

After Belle left in 1997, Manny Ramirez played his third full season for Cleveland. He hit 30+ homers in each of the next 9 seasons -- 6 of those were spent playing for the Boston Red Sox. During Manny’s time in Boston, the Red Sox won more (2) World Series than the Yankees (1). Manny signed an 8-year, $160 MM contract with Boston that remains one of maybe four $100 MM deals that has worked out very well for a ball club.

Maybe it’s the entire city of Cleveland that is really the "mistake by the lake?"

Bob Feller died the other day, and Cleveland lost perhaps it’s greatest Indian. Certainly he was the most crotchety Indian of all time. I grew up knowing about Bob Feller, how he’d struck out 15 guys in his first MLB start at the age of 17. He was from Van Meter, Iowa, and reportedly threw 100+ MPH at times, during much of his early career. He won 266 games, and lost most of 4 seasons to the US Navy during WWII. He’s in the argument for greatest pitcher of all time, even if he loses.

I’d like to say to Cleveland, "I’m sorry," for all your losses, but take heart, you don’t have anyone left that anyone wants, and Lake Erie hasn’t caught on fire recently.

I’d also like to state now that I hate Lebron too, for spurning the Knicks. I didn’t know that I hated him until last night.

Finally, I feel sorry for all you Yankee fans…losers.
　

"My kind of town, Chicago is..."

Carlos Pena will love Wrigley almost as much as White Sox fans will continue to love Pauly Jacknuts, but will Cub fans love or hate Carlos?

I keep thinking that at some point the Angels will lose out on signing Carl Crawford and make a deal with the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.  I have nothing to base this on, jes sayin...

That's all for now, though I have to tell you that even though I will never own a Kia, I love their TV ad.

Who doesn't like Hip Hoodied Hampsters?

Correction on Reynolds

Mark Reynolds has had 638 strikeouts in his last 3 years.  The 767 K's is a career number for those 1982 at bats.

Marvin Miller punks the Hall of Fame, Derek is angry, K’s vs. home runs, and other tales…

Former GM Pat Gillick making the Hall of Fame was well deserved. Gillick put together some great teams in his career, including the World Champion Blue Jays in the early 90’s, the Oriole teams that won the AL East a couple of times later in the decade, and the 116 win Mariner team of 2001. He also laid the groundwork for the current Phillies.

The bigger news was about two men that didn’t make it. George Steinbrenner was denied, but he’ll make it someday. No offense, but it’s not like The Boss is still with us, and for the record, I think he has to go in (and will) as an owner that had an enormous impact on how the business of baseball has changed.

George will get his due, but Marvin Miller, the man who was much more responsible for the changes in the game misses again, this time by one vote. I can make a very good argument that after Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson, Marvin Miller has had the biggest impact on the game in the last 100 years.

Anyone interested in really understanding what happened to baseball once Miller began his tenure as the player’s counsel and negotiator should read John Helyar’s excellent book, "The Lords of the Realm."

(If you’d like to read the text of Marvin Miller’s response to not being voted into the Hall of Fame, read the post prior to this one.)

Moving on, Derek Jeter sounded a little testy today.

Jeter didn’t like that many of the details about his contract negotiations had been made very public. Hey, I don’t give a crap, Derek. I have all the respect in the world for you as a player, but take your 51 MM and shut up.

If you didn’t like that the details were splashed all over, I have to know first if you really asked for so much more? Even if you didn’t ask for 23-25 MM a year for 6 years, take a frikkin’ contract that no one else would give you half of, stop whining, and prove us doubters wrong.

Better still, thank Marvin Miller, because without Miller, maybe Jeter makes $75,000 as a charity salary for this coming season with NY?

Arizona finds a closer?

JJ Putz signs with the D-Backs – 2 years for 10 MM. I’ve always liked the guy, and maybe he’ll solve what was a horrible problem for AZ last year? Arizona has been busy, signing Melvin Mora (from Colorado - the hot weather will be good for his old bones) and trading Mark Reynolds to Baltimore for some random scrub pitchers, including Kam Micklio. I don’t think much of Micklio - I just like saying his name.

Reynolds is an interesting player. In the last 3 seasons he’s had 1982 at bats, and struck out 767 times! He has also hit 121 homers in those 3 years, but only hit .198 in 2010. Those K’s are the stuff of legend. I remember when Bobby Bonds set the new MLB record for K’s back in 1969 with 187. Proving it was no fluke, he fanned 189 times in 1970.

Did you know that Joe DiMaggio only struck out 369 times in his entire career? DiMaggio only played 15 seasons, and had 6821 at bats. He almost had as many homers (361) as strikeouts.

Another point of reference is that Henry Aaron had 12,364 at bats, and 755 homers

If Reynolds had Joltin’ Joe’s pace, he’d have 750 homers in three seasons, and be right behind Henry for second place in homers on the all-time list, and Barry Bonds another few at bats away.

In other news, Ty Wigginton signed with Colorado for 2 years and 8 MM. Wiggy keeps on doing it, doesn’t he? I am guessing he finds 450-500 at bats, and hits 25+ homers, while playing all over the place.

Stay warm my friends, the Winter Meetings are in full swing, and pitchers and catchers report in 68 days.

Marvin Miller, a very classy 93-year old guy

This is the full text of Marvin Miller’s response to not being voted into the baseball Hall of Fame.

"The Baseball Hall of Fame's vote (or non-vote) of December 5, hardly qualifies as a news story. It is repetitively negative, easy to forecast, and therefore boring.

"Many years ago those who control the Hall decided to rewrite history instead of recording it. The aim was to eradicate the history of the tremendous impact of the players' union on the progress and development of the game as a competitive sport, as entertainment, and as an industry. The union was the moving force in bringing Major League Baseball from the 19th century to the 21st century. It brought about expansion of the game to cities that had never had a Major League team. It brought about more than a 50 percent increase in the number of people employed as players, coaches, trainers, managers, club presidents, attorneys and other support personnel, employees of concessionaires, stadium maintenance personnel, parking lot attendants, and more. It converted a salary structure from one with a $6,000 a year minimum salary to a $414,000 a year salary from the first day of a player's Major League service. The union was also the moving force for changing the average Major League salary from $19,000 a year to more than $3 million a year, and the top salary from $100,000 to more than $25 million a year. The union was a major factor in increasing the annual revenue of all Major League clubs, combined — from $50 million a year before the union started in 1966 to this year's almost $7 billion a year. That is a difficult record to eradicate — and the Hall has failed to do it.

"A long time ago, it became apparent that the Hall sought to bury me long before my time, as a metaphor for burying the union and eradicating its real influence. Its failure is exemplified by the fact that I and the union of players have received far more support, publicity, and appreciation from countless fans, former players, writers, scholars, experts in labor management relations, than if the Hall had not embarked on its futile and fraudulent attempt to rewrite history. It is an amusing anomaly that the Hall of Fame has made me famous by keeping me out."