American League -- West

Los Angeles Angels

Team Motto: Vernon Wells Free since 2013!
Hello: Josh Hamilton, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas, Joe Blanton
Goodbye: Ervin Santana, Jordan Walden
Pleasant surprise player? Peter Bourjos


Does it work out?

Nice comeback player: Joe Blanton

Remember when Artie Moreno spent all that money for Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson last year? Well, these days that’s a mere pittance compared to what the other LA team did after that, but I think the Angels are the better bet to pay off sooner, and when a team is spending millions to billions, the future is now.

I think the Angels will do enough to win, they just won’t have the juggernaut a lot of people thing they have, as after an aging and often hurting Pujols, they brought on Josh Hamilton, who could be MVP or an 80-game player? Mike Trout will regress, and while Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Bourjos are good, they’re not that good, and the starting pitching is really iffy after Jered Weaver and a now healthy Wilson.

Not much depth, and I think Mark Trumbo continues his fall, and Chris Iannetta is average.

Prediction: 1^st Place

Best team in an over-rated division.

Oakland A’s

Team motto: Relentless Smoke and Mirrors!
Hello: Chris Young, Jed Lowrie, John Jaso           

They have bradabillity

Goodbye: Andrew Bailey
Pleasant surprise player? Jed Lowrie
Nice comeback player: Chris Young

How does Oakland keep doing this stuff with players few folks have heard of? The A’s total salary last season was about $56.6 million, so it’s not as though Billy Beane is still pleading poverty, but their payroll is about 25% of the Angels, and about half of what Texas will pay, even after Josh Hamilton and Michael Young left.

The answer of course is Beane’s ability to find players that will fill specific roles and contribute the walks, steals, hits and homers that create just enough runs for a very talented and seemingly endless number of young and pitchers.

You may not know guys like Seth Smith, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, AJ Griffin, Tommy Milone and John Jaso, but they’re odds on to help produce between 85-88 wins this season.

Prediction: 2^nd Place

If Brett Anderson can ever stay healthy, and a kid named Dan Straily keeps improving, the ballpark may be friendly enough to allow old Bartolo Colon to be effective again, and the A’s will have a shot at the post-season.

Texas Rangers

Team motto: We are not losers again…yet!    

Nolan may be done hoisting trophies?

Hello: Lance Berkman, AJ Pierzynski
Goodbye: Josh Hamilton, Michael Young
Pleasant surprise player? David Murphy
Nice comeback player: Joakim Soria

They say Nolan Ryan is being forced out in Texas, which seems to make no sense to me. I can see that Young had to go, and I am not a Hamilton fan, but I give a big chunk of the credit for the Rangers revived pitching to Ryan.

I’d be surprised if Berkman stays healthy enough to contribute much, and Pierzynski can’t fend off old age forever. Their number 1 starter, Colby Lewis is out until mid-season, and he’s not a true number 1 anyway. I think the whole season depends on Yu Darvish and Derek Holland stepping up, and Matt Harrison proving most of last season was not based on a lot of luck.

There is certainly some very nice young hitting talent in Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt in AAA, and Alexi Ogando and Martin Perez on the pitching side may step up?

Prediction: 3^rd Place

Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, and Nelson Cruz are all very good offensive players, and the defense and team speed is good. I think this team is like those old Ranger teams were – fast start, plenty of runs scored, but the pitching tires and fades in the oppressive Texas summer. They will contend, and may make the post-season, but they wouldn’t get any of my money.

Seattle Mariners

Team motto: We love the Astros!
Hello: Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Jason Bay
Goodbye: Jason Vargas
Pleasant surprise players? Mike Zunino, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker
Nice comeback player: Raul Ibanez

Millions of dollars fallin' from the sky

This could be a pretty good team if the pitching can hold up in a place that is no longer the most pitcher-friendly in the league. When they moved the fences in, and went and brought on Morse and Morales, they made it known that they were ready to try and get in the mix.

Past King Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, there isn’t a lot of pitching to get excited about until they bring the kids (Hultzen, Walker, and Erasmo Ramirez) back up from AAA.

Former top prospects Dustin Ackley (2B) and Justin Smoak (1B) will need to start hitting, and Jesus Montero will need to continue to hit, and improve his poor fielding at catcher.

Prediction: 4^th Place

Really too many ifs, and even if the three top starting pitchers prospects to get promoted, it’s not likely they will pitch well enough to make much wild card noise, but they are no longer a dumpster fire, and they will have the Astros to kick around.

Houston Astros

Team motto: We may actually be better than Miami! 

Baseball? I Thought it was football?

Hello: Carlos Pena, Chris Carter, Erik Bedard
Goodbye: Jed Lowrie
Pleasant surprise player? Chris Carter
Nice comeback player: Erik Bedard

Who says that the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball? If we could switch them with the Marlins, I think we’d be changing our minds, but the AL west is a lot tougher that the NL East, so here we have a team that may lose 115 games?

Reality is that the starting rotation has some talent in Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, and Bedard, but the bullpen is extra-shaky, and there will be a collection of (what should be) mostly AAA players on the field. Chris Carter and Carlos Pena may hit 65 homers and strike out 400 times between them, leaving Houston’s one star player, Jose Altuve to wonder how he’ll ever score unless someone homers?

Prediction: 5^th Place

Houston got old, and began the break up of a not bad team last year, and will need at least this year, and probably most of next year to get back to being at least a .500 team. If they draft well, and some of their minor league prospects come through 2015 might not be so bad?

Nickel recap:

Maybe the LA neighbors play nice at some point soon, and the Dodgers off load one of the starting pitchers (Adam Harang, Ted Lilly, or Chris Capuano) they don't have room for?  If not, I have a feeling the Angels buy or trade for one top of the line pitcher around the deadline and /or before September 1 to ensure winning the division, and the attempt to get deep into October?  Look for that pitcher to be Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, or Matt Garza.

National League - East

Washington Nationals

Team Motto: We are bucks up!
Hello: Rafael Soriano, Dan Haren, Denard Span

Lots of reasons to smile

Goodbye: Michael Morse, Edwin Jackson
Pleasant surprise player? Tyler Moore
Nice comeback players: Dan Haren & Jayson Werth



Remember when Washington was an orphan known as the Montreal Expos? Well, mega-billionaire Ted Lerner, the 87-year old principal owner of the Nationals adopted the team a few years back, and has had his bottomless wallet open for some years now. He put braces on his boys, bought them long pants, and got them tutors in order to help them improve their lot in life.

Another old man, Davey Johnson took charge of this team, and led them to what should have been an NL Championship Series with the Giants last year, but a horrific ninth innings did them in.

Prediction: 1st Place

The Nats have the best starting rotation in baseball, and current or potential all stars at almost every position. A nice, deep bullpen and bench, good defense, power and excellent speed. This is your odds on 2013 National League World Series representative.

Atlanta Braves

Team motto: Justin? BJ? We want Kate!
Hello: BJ Upton
Goodbye: Michael Bourn, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado

Kate can't hit, but she takes a helluva shower

Pleasant surprise player? Mike Minor
Nice comeback player: Jason Heyward

I have seen a lot of positive things written about this team, but I don’t see where the leadership is coming from?

The starting pitching will be good, to very good, and if the Upton boys perform well, they’ll make some noise, but they need too much else to go right on the hitting side.

Will Dan Uggla continue to look like an old man? Will Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman fulfil all the great things predicted for them? Will third base be a disaster? Will Andrelton Simmons be the great shortstop of the future? Will Brian McCann get and stay healthy? Can Paul Maholm forget he was a Pirate?

Prediction: 2nd Place

Too many questions have my gut telling me this team is one consolidation year away from really contending.

Philadelphia Phillies

Team motto: Not as old as the Yankees!
Hello: Ben Revere, Delmon & Michael Young


I think Doc is gonna need a doc?

Goodbye: Vance Worley
Pleasant surprise player? Domonic Brown
Nice comeback player: Chase Utley

Why does most of the heart of this team (Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Utley, Roy Halladay, and Michael Young) seem so old? Answer: Because they are.

Prediction: 3rd Place

Halladay is on what looks to be a quick downward spiral, along with Howard and Utley, although I think Utley has one good year left in him, if he can stay healthy? Cole Hamels is a pure stud, and Cliff Lee is right behind him, but it won’t be enough to even seriously contend. Old players that have been injury-prone don’t suddenly get healthy, and they will really miss Carlos Ruiz, who sits out the first 50 games for a MLB drug violation.

New York Mets

Team motto: Strawberry, Raspberry, we want Throneberry!


Simply marv

Hello: Shaun Marcum, John Buck
Goodbye: Scott Hairston, Josh Thole
Pleasant surprise player? Matt Harvey
Nice comeback player: Marlon Byrd

There isn’t much here past David Wright’s continued All Star play, and Ike Davis potentially challenging for the NL Home Run title. Maybe catcher Travis d’Arnaud (the key part of the R.A. Dickey trade) will come up sometime this summer and live up to the hype. Ruben Tejada isn’t Jose Reyes, but he has nice skills.

Prediction: 4th Place

Could be the end for Johan Santana – is he Hall of Fame worthy? Nah, but he had a nice 6-year run, and got that big contract. Now, Shaun Marcum is hurt – big surprise there, huh? I doubt they are good enough to battle a very ordinary the Phillie for third, but they should edge out Miami.

Miami Marlins

Team motto: It was bad while it lasted!
Hello: Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco                        


I think there's going to be trouble?

Goodbye: Ozzie, Jose, Hanley, Emilio, Mark, John, etc., etc., etc....
Pleasant surprise player? Adeiny Hechavarria
Nice comeback player: Juan Pierre

Who says that the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball? Last year at this time Marlin owner Jeffrey Loria had gotten out his brand new Etch-A-Sketch, and drawn up a plan to win the NL East with star power, and a foul-mouthed manager who early on insulted the Cuban population that was expected to fill the new artsy-fartsy wonderama stadium.

"Jeffrey, you got sum splainin’ to do?"

Haven’t we seen versions of this before with Miami? Yep. They win pennants in 1997 and 2003 and break up the team because not enough folks come to see the games. It’s not a Marlin’s thing, it’s a Florida thing. The Dolphins and Heat don’t draw either, because it’s too damn muggy, and the old folks can’t afford to buy tickets. The young folks are swimming, sunning, and partying in South Beach.

Prediction: 5th Place

How long before the best young power hitter in MLB (Giancarlo Stanton) gets traded? When it does happen (this season) Miami will be worse than Houston.

Nickel recap:
I don't think any team will really threaten the Nationals, but Atlanta will contend for a wild card, Philly fans will boo their players, Mets fans will boo their owners, and Miami fans...oh wait, there aren't any.

Madness in March -- 79 degrees or snowing

Will it be Louisville, Indiana, Gonzaga, or Kansas? We all know that #1 seeds win it most of the time.

Ohio State? Nah, they’re losers, though I like their coach. I don't like Pittino, but I do like his boy, Billy Donovan. I like the old man (Jim Larranaga) of Miami better. Didn't he used to coach James Mason, or Dave Mason, or was it Harvey Mason? Anyway, he’s an old guy like me, and he’s got an old team. Seniors are good this time of year, if more rare as the years pass.

Originally the Gonzaganut Bar

How about Gonzaga? A kid told me a few days ago that the Zagnut candy bar was named for the basketball team. You believe that, don’t you? Remember when those boys from the far northwest were the new kids? Hell, I remember when Coach K was the new kid playing guard for Bobby Knight at West Point.

April Gladness

In the last 21 tournaments, a top 4 seed has won it all. Arizona was a #4 seed when they won it, but can they win it as a #6 seed?

Is Bucknell the new Butler, is Chaka still smart?

Give me Liberty (and 40 points), or some other team that didn’t lose 20 games and make the field of 68.

Sometimes when I pick the wrong team, I hate myself. My son just hates Bill Self.

Know lots of folks that went to Syracuse, and was very happy when they won it; more happy when (upstart) Vermont beat them a few later.

Does anyone else miss Roy Williams blubbering like a little kid after another early exit?

Harvard is in this one – go figure? Princeton was robbed in 1989. They had #1 Georgetown beat when the Tigers were a 16, but the refs took it away from them…seriously, they did.

Been watching this thing for 50 years, early on, every game was on tape delay. I was rooting for Bill Bradley, even though the damn games weren't even on TV, and I’d never seen him play, if you can imagine?



My son posts up the Big Red Head

I watched every minute of Bill Walton play the greatest game in final’s history, and lost a lot of money one year later when UCLA lost to NC State, and David Thompson.

Had North Carolina on a bet over Georgetown giving 2 points. Freddie Brown makes that horrible pass to James Worthy, and I needed Worthy to go in and slam it home for a 4 point lead, but he pulls it back, and dribbles it until he gets fouled. The National College Player of the Year needed to make one of two for me to win a bundle, and he misses both. The bet was a push, but it was a great game, and I have a better story.

It’s all before us, and we can root 63 times for a winner, and some of us, will win some money.

It’s snowing like crazy up here in northern Vermont, and tomorrow is the first day of spring. Last year it was 79 degrees, and that was crazy too.

Must be the time of year that brings on the madness?   Or maybe it's all the Gonzaganut Bars?

Super Bowl 47 – A 91% “Perfect” Bet

About 50 years ago my dad told me a story about a big bet he made on the 1954 World Series. His favorite team was the New York Giants, and they were enormous underdogs going into the series against a Cleveland Indian’s team that had crushed the American League.

My dad followed baseball really carefully back then, and had noticed that every time the Indians had played the Giants in Spring Training (both played spring ball in Arizona, and played one another a lot), and each team had their best guys playing, the Giants always won. He knew the Giants would win the series.

He said "I told your mother what I wanted to bet and she started to cry, so for the only time in my life I lied to her, and said I was only going to bet $50.00…and she still cried."

I don’t recall what he said he really bet, but based on what he said he won it was a lot of money. My dad had to work a full-time job and all sort of extra jobs to make about $3500 a year to support a wife and 2 kids. He also had car and mortgage payments.

I can’t find a record of what the odds were on that series, but I think it’s safe to say he was getting about 4-1, and he also placed a sum on the Giants sweeping Cleveland in 4 straight, which is exactly what happened. I believe my dad won over $1000, possibly more – equal to about six-months worth of wages at his full time job.

After that, he never really bet much of anything on any other sporting event, but when I got old enough to consider gambling opportunities my dad would drop pearls of wisdom on me about sure things that he had come up with, and he was never wrong. The problem was it took about 2 or 3 of these sure things to hit before I actually bet any money of them.

The last one he gave me was in 1981, which by that time I was all in.

In the 7 or 8 times he would come up with these pearls, Dad always said, "Charlie, how would you like to make a lot of money?"

I didn’t have to say a thing before he told me "The Raiders are going to kill the Eagles."

The Raiders were a 3-point underdog, and I took the points, bet a bundle, and won easily.

In past years I have had a few premonitions on games, mostly college basketball games, and have learned to jump on those opportunities, few though they may be. Last time was when the Maryland Terrapins won the NCCA Basketball Championship in 2002.

Of course there really is no such thing as a sure thing when betting on a game, unless the game is fixed, or is there?

Back in 1974, the great sportswriter and sports novelist Dan Jenkins wrote a hilariously entertaining book titled "Dead Solid Perfect." The lead character is a Texas native named Kenny Lee Puckett. Kenny Lee has a shady gambling acquaintance that writes sports for a local newspaper. Together, they concoct a scheme in which they invent a Texas high school with a fantastic football team, as reported in game stories made up by Kenny Lee’s pal. Texas high school football being the enormously popular thing that it was (and still is), eventually other newspapers to begin publishing the game stories and scores of the phony team’s games. Before long, bookies are putting betting lines on the games and taking wagers on them.

Kenny Lee and his buddy start betting the games and cleaning up, and it comes down the championship game when the bet their entire bundle, and lose.

The shady reporter has been handling the money, and laying the bets. When Kenny Lee questions "What the hell happened?" his partner says, "Kenny Lee, there ain’t nothin’ in this whole world that’s dead solid perfect."

All right, I know, even 40 years ago that really couldn’t have happened but there is a huge truth within that allegorical tale in the book that every serious gambler knows – The only sure thing in betting on a sporting event is that there is no sure thing.

So, what does all of this have to do with the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49er's Super Bowl game tomorrow evening?

Answer, everything and nothing.

In the last 22 years, since the Sports Books in Las Vegas have been keeping track, the sports books have won money 20 out of those 22 years. That’s about 91%, which are crappy odds for the airline pilot landing the 737 you're flying on without crashing, but in the realm of sports betting that’s pretty damn good.

In these 22 years, Vegas has made $100-million on Super Bowl bets, but that’s estimated to be only about 1% of what’s been bet on the game world-wide.

The flip side to Vegas taking all that money is that they also pay out a lot. The key is everyone bets on the Super Bowl, from your Aunt Minnie, to my 6-year old cousin Jill, to my wife’s coworker who said she couldn’t bet on the Ravens because of "what Ray Lewis did to all those pit bulls!" The fact that is was Mike Vick doesn’t change the fact that the general public bets their emotions, or feelings, and they use recent history as a guide. If Team A sucked last week, and Team B was great, Team A kills Team B this week.

Vegas knows all of this, and they put betting lines out there that the public perceives to be a true representation of what will happen, i.e. If Team A is a 7-point favorite they are the better team and will win the game. "Everyone" bets on the favorite, because the favorite is the better team, right?

Well, "everyone" doesn’t bet on the favorite.

This year, so far, about 70% or more of the money wagered on the game in Vegas is on Ravens, who are anywhere from 3-5 point underdogs. The public is taking the points, placing their bets, and feeling smart. They are caught up in the Ray Lewis is a messenger of God hype, Baltimore is on a roll hype, the Ravens are this year’s New York Giants hype, and on and on.

Are you with them, or with me and the whales? http://baseballcranks.blogspot.com/2011/02/super-bowl-whale-watching.html

Tomorrow afternoon in Las Vegas, there will be dozens of men and women in the various casinos waiting until almost game time to place huge amounts of money on the Super Bowl. These folks work for betting syndicates, or multi-millionaire bettors like Billy Walters – millions of dollars will be wagered in the hour before kick off on behalf of the syndicates and the "Whales" who eliminate all those silly emotions and bet numbers, not teams.

So, what will they bet?

I feel certain that the best bet will go along those millions of dollars that will be put on San Francisco, on the money line. The wise guys will take the point spread out of the equation and put up $140-$170 to win $100, multiplied by the thousands, which is where that line should be by game time. 

The wise guys know that San Francisco is the better team, and that’s where they want their money. They don’t mind putting up bigger dollars to take the points out of the bet, and this is what the sports books expect to have happen. They will take money from Aunt Minnie, Cousin Jill, and my wife’s coworker, pay the multi-millionaires, and pocket a huge profit for themselves once again.

Flacco's lament?

The wise guys also like Proposition Bets, but not the idiotic ones like how long will Alicia Keys version of the National Anthem be, but ones that make perfect sense to bet if one wants to make money.

Best one I have seen is: Joe Flacco, over or under ½ interceptions?

I think this is the best bet on the board. Flacco will have at least one INT. If you want to win $100, you need to bet $170. If I had someone to take that bet, I’d put some serious cash on it. Otherwise, get someone to bet you on the winner of the game – give them $160 if the Ravens win, and you take the 49ers and $100 when they win.

What, a 91% winning percentage isn’t good enough for you?

 Sorry, my dad died in 1998, and my last premonition was over 10 years ago. So, unless I have some special dream before game time tomorrow, 91% is the best I can do for you Kenny Lee.

Go Niners!

Tami, Demi and Ringo: The flu, the cougar, and the mop-top

She may get the flu?

I got a case of the flu a couple of weeks ago, which was a really bad time, but I got through it all right. I wish I’d just gotten a 6-pack, but in many ways I’ve always over-indulged in things that haven’t been good for me.

I went into work on a Monday morning feeling so-so, but by 10:00 A.M. I was enduring a full body ache with chills, my head was beginning to feel like it was filled with used, soggy cotton, and my coworkers were threatening to have me killed, so I called my doctor, and went home. When I saw my doctor later that day she confirmed what I already knew: I had the flu.

The ‘good’ news I got out of the visit was she told me the current flu shots were not working on a lot of people, so I didn’t feel like an idiot for not getting a shot. She also told me that the pharmacies had run out of Tamiflu on the prior Friday, but knew they were getting more in that day, so I was "lucky."

The ‘bad’ news I got out the visit was my doctor had no idea what all that cotton in my head was drenched with. It also soon became apparent to me that her version of "lucky" did not gibe with my own, but I think that’s a "Me" thing?

He's got it.

So, I got my Tami Flu and went home to Demi Moore. Not really, but AMC was showing the movie "A Few Good Men" over and over the entire week that I was home sick. I think it was part of some theme week, like when they have a "The Duke Week," and show non-stop John Wayne movies? I’m not sure what the occasion was for "A Few Good Men", but I watched it at least 6 times because I was not capable of much else for about 4 or 5 days, and I like the movie, and I really like Demi Moore?

At some point during all of this, I had a lie down, and Tami met Demi. Suddenly I was at a really hot party with Demi, and she and I were making out on some secluded sofa. It was so delightful that I couldn’t wait to tell Susan!

My lovely wife said, "That’s nice honey," and meant it. We watched the movie together that evening, and talked a bit on why we dream what we dream? I know that I have always favored the beautiful brunette over any other lady, which is why I first fell in love with Susan 50 years ago. I had also seen photos of Demi making out at a party a short time ago, and my sub-conscious probably figured what the hell? Maybe Katherine Ross and Barbara Hershey were busy, I don’t know?

He wants it.

Segue to three mornings ago, where Susan and I are driving into work and she tells me she had a dream last night in which she and Ringo Starr were "trying to have babies."

I know I am not alone when I tell you that my first reaction (and Susan’s) was "Ringo?" Even allowing for the fact that John and George are deceased, and that someone buried Paul, aren’t dreams of having sex with Beatles supposed to be nice, and bonking Ringo last on that short list?

The second thing I thought of was "Got to pay your dues if you want to screw the Suze…"

The third thing I thought of was the movie starring Demi and I titled "Blowhard."

Yesterday I emailed Susan at work and asked her if we had "a couple of sandwich rolls left?" I was making dinner that evening, and I needed two rolls.

She emailed back that we had "4 rolls."

I emailed "Then we have two couples, me and Demi; you and Ringo."

Susan emailed "Making babies."

It don’t come easy.

How professional gamblers choose their NFL bets

The guys that make their living betting sporting events and NFL games in particular don’t bet on teams, they bet on numbers.

For the most part, It doesn’t matter to them what a team may have done in a prior week, month, or year as far as winning or losing a game is concerned, as much as how are they performing versus the numbers, injuries, and trends that govern winning and losing.

The simplest fact in all of sports betting is that a Las Vegas sports book always establishes a betting line (point spread) based on what they feel the perception of the betting public will be. That means that they will generally try to create a betting line in which the volume of money will end up somewhat even, on both sides of a game.

The reality is that this seldom happens, as invariably most bettors will bet favorites a large majority of the time. That is an indisputable fact. What this means is that in most big games the general public will bet the favorite no matter what the number is.

It can reasonably be argued that Vegas sports books influence the public in which team they will bet on by merely establishing a line? If the Las Vegas sports books "say" that San Francisco is a 5-point favorite, aren’t they saying the 49er’s are the better team?

Las Vegas was built on the ever-emptying wallets and extremely short memory of the amateur bettor, a nickel or dollar at a time.

So, what happened when New England opened as a 10-point favorite versus Baltimore?

The big, early, professional bettor’s money was immediately put on Baltimore this week, which pushed the line all the way down to 7.5-points by today. Putting the line lower then prompted the amateurs to bet on the Patriots, and it’s still coming in on them. It’s reasonable to assume that 65% to 70% of the total money wagered on this game is on New England.

The public loves the Patriots to win this game big, even though there is very little to suggest that will actually happen. In the last few weeks a number of things have happened to both teams.

Baltimore has gotten very healthy for the first time all season, and New England is missing their biggest offensive weapon in Gronkowski.

The Ravens offense is geared towards the long pass play, and New England has given up more of those than any team in the NFL.

Tom Brady’s overall numbers versus the current Raven defense are not very good, whereas Joe Flacco’s numbers are very good versus New England’s D.

The facts are that New England is a very good football team, and they may well win the game today. However, Baltimore is also a very good team that should have beaten Denver relatively easily. If not for a punt and kickoff being returned for touchdowns, they probably would have cruised to a win.

The pro bettors love certain point-spread numbers, and 7.5 and 10 are two of them, especially when they are taking a very good football team plus a bundle of points.

In the San Francisco at Atlanta game, we have the biggest swindle yet perpetuated this post season.

Last week, Atlanta was at home and a 2 to 2.5 point favorite over Seattle. The similarities between Seattle and San Francisco are remarkable, yet because Kaepernick had a game for the ages, the public has fallen in love with him. They conveniently forget that the Packers were a mediocre to bad defensive football team, and a one-trick pony on offense.

Atlanta comes into this game today as the #1 seed in the NFC, and is the biggest underdog ever for a team in that position since the NFL playoffs expanded to it’s current format. #1 seeds don’t lose home games, especially to rookie quarterbacks. These are two numbers or trends that the pro gambler loves. Another huge factor in this game is that teams traveling from one coast to the other generally lose, regardless of who they are, and which team they are playing. For all that Seattle did to almost win last week, they were still down big early, and though they rallied and the argument could be advanced that they should have won, they lost. Atlanta wins games at home. They did not cover the spread last week, but they won, and the truer point spread this week would have them slight favorites, say 1.5 or 2, the same sort of line they had last week.

The difference in the two games is that while the pros got in early on Baltimore, they have waited to plop their money down on Atlanta, as the line has been creeping up. It opened at most books with Atlanta a 3-point underdog, to now, where the Falcons are now a 5-point dog.

Atlanta will throw a zone defense at Kaepernick today, unlike the man defense he saw from Green Bay.

In the big picture it matters little to the little guy betting the game, as he will win or lose $10 to $20, to maybe $50 or $100 on the games today. The little guy is betting on New England and San Francisco.

Both are bad bets. It doesn’t mean they won’t be winning bets, but my money would be with the pros, and the books, and both of those sets are taking the points, and betting huge sums.

Simple, really.

Hold on and Save this

No bra

Yesterday afternoon at Citi Field the New York Mets went into the top of the ninth inning with a 4-1 lead over the San Francisco Giants.  The Mets brought in their closer, Frank Francisco in relief of starter Mike Pelfrey, and the following mayhem ensued:

B. Posey singled to center
A. Huff grounded out to pitcher, B. Posey to second
N. Schierholtz walked
E. Burriss singled to shallow center, B. Posey scored, N. Schierholtz to second
H. Sanchez hit for B. Crawford
T. Byrdak relieved F. Francisco
H. Sanchez struck out swinging
B. Pill hit for D. Otero
J. Rauch relieved T. ByrdakB. Belt hit for B. Pill
B. Belt doubled to shallow center, N. Schierholtz and E. Burriss scored
A. Pagan struck out swinging

3 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors -- San Francisco Giants 4, New York Mets 4.

The Mets rally in the bottom of the ninth to win the game, 5-4. And among others, we have the following statistics to digest:

Frank Francisco gets a "Hold." A "Hold" as in "held the lead."

Tim Byrdak gets a "Hold."

Jon Rauch gets a "Blown Save" and a "Win."

So, Frank Francisco is charged with all 3 runs (including the run the tied the game) in 1/3 of inning and does not get the save he was put in the ballgame to get, but he gets a positive counting stat by getting a "Hold."

I don’t have a problem with the Hold as a statistic for relief pitchers any more than I do with the Save. There are times when many stats can be a bit (to very) bogus. One of the best is when a pitcher gets two outs in an inning before a batter reaches on an error. The pitcher then proceeds to give up (say) 7 hits, including a couple of homers, and when the dust settles the pitcher is down 7-0.

All 7 runs would be unearned based on the fact that is the third batter in the innings had been put out instead of reaching on the error, the pitcher would not have allowed any runs. That’s akin to saying that if my aunt didn’t have big ta tas she’d be my uncle.

In reality, didn’t Francisco blow the save? If a player is put into the game to do something, and he doesn’t do it, shouldn’t he be charged with a negative stat? And how is it that he gets a Hold when it was "his" run that tied the game? Tim Byrdak came into the game when the Mets had the lead, and struck out the one batter he faced. He certainly earned that Hold a lot more than Francisco earned his.



Yes bra

Look, I know the rules that govern how all of this works, and understand the importance of trying to quantify and qualify numbers for all pitchers, I am just get tired sometimes of my uncle needing to wear that big brassiere.