Tami, Demi and Ringo: The flu, the cougar, and the mop-top

She may get the flu?

I got a case of the flu a couple of weeks ago, which was a really bad time, but I got through it all right. I wish I’d just gotten a 6-pack, but in many ways I’ve always over-indulged in things that haven’t been good for me.

I went into work on a Monday morning feeling so-so, but by 10:00 A.M. I was enduring a full body ache with chills, my head was beginning to feel like it was filled with used, soggy cotton, and my coworkers were threatening to have me killed, so I called my doctor, and went home. When I saw my doctor later that day she confirmed what I already knew: I had the flu.

The ‘good’ news I got out of the visit was she told me the current flu shots were not working on a lot of people, so I didn’t feel like an idiot for not getting a shot. She also told me that the pharmacies had run out of Tamiflu on the prior Friday, but knew they were getting more in that day, so I was "lucky."

The ‘bad’ news I got out the visit was my doctor had no idea what all that cotton in my head was drenched with. It also soon became apparent to me that her version of "lucky" did not gibe with my own, but I think that’s a "Me" thing?

He's got it.

So, I got my Tami Flu and went home to Demi Moore. Not really, but AMC was showing the movie "A Few Good Men" over and over the entire week that I was home sick. I think it was part of some theme week, like when they have a "The Duke Week," and show non-stop John Wayne movies? I’m not sure what the occasion was for "A Few Good Men", but I watched it at least 6 times because I was not capable of much else for about 4 or 5 days, and I like the movie, and I really like Demi Moore?

At some point during all of this, I had a lie down, and Tami met Demi. Suddenly I was at a really hot party with Demi, and she and I were making out on some secluded sofa. It was so delightful that I couldn’t wait to tell Susan!

My lovely wife said, "That’s nice honey," and meant it. We watched the movie together that evening, and talked a bit on why we dream what we dream? I know that I have always favored the beautiful brunette over any other lady, which is why I first fell in love with Susan 50 years ago. I had also seen photos of Demi making out at a party a short time ago, and my sub-conscious probably figured what the hell? Maybe Katherine Ross and Barbara Hershey were busy, I don’t know?

He wants it.

Segue to three mornings ago, where Susan and I are driving into work and she tells me she had a dream last night in which she and Ringo Starr were "trying to have babies."

I know I am not alone when I tell you that my first reaction (and Susan’s) was "Ringo?" Even allowing for the fact that John and George are deceased, and that someone buried Paul, aren’t dreams of having sex with Beatles supposed to be nice, and bonking Ringo last on that short list?

The second thing I thought of was "Got to pay your dues if you want to screw the Suze…"

The third thing I thought of was the movie starring Demi and I titled "Blowhard."

Yesterday I emailed Susan at work and asked her if we had "a couple of sandwich rolls left?" I was making dinner that evening, and I needed two rolls.

She emailed back that we had "4 rolls."

I emailed "Then we have two couples, me and Demi; you and Ringo."

Susan emailed "Making babies."

It don’t come easy.

How professional gamblers choose their NFL bets

The guys that make their living betting sporting events and NFL games in particular don’t bet on teams, they bet on numbers.

For the most part, It doesn’t matter to them what a team may have done in a prior week, month, or year as far as winning or losing a game is concerned, as much as how are they performing versus the numbers, injuries, and trends that govern winning and losing.

The simplest fact in all of sports betting is that a Las Vegas sports book always establishes a betting line (point spread) based on what they feel the perception of the betting public will be. That means that they will generally try to create a betting line in which the volume of money will end up somewhat even, on both sides of a game.

The reality is that this seldom happens, as invariably most bettors will bet favorites a large majority of the time. That is an indisputable fact. What this means is that in most big games the general public will bet the favorite no matter what the number is.

It can reasonably be argued that Vegas sports books influence the public in which team they will bet on by merely establishing a line? If the Las Vegas sports books "say" that San Francisco is a 5-point favorite, aren’t they saying the 49er’s are the better team?

Las Vegas was built on the ever-emptying wallets and extremely short memory of the amateur bettor, a nickel or dollar at a time.

So, what happened when New England opened as a 10-point favorite versus Baltimore?

The big, early, professional bettor’s money was immediately put on Baltimore this week, which pushed the line all the way down to 7.5-points by today. Putting the line lower then prompted the amateurs to bet on the Patriots, and it’s still coming in on them. It’s reasonable to assume that 65% to 70% of the total money wagered on this game is on New England.

The public loves the Patriots to win this game big, even though there is very little to suggest that will actually happen. In the last few weeks a number of things have happened to both teams.

Baltimore has gotten very healthy for the first time all season, and New England is missing their biggest offensive weapon in Gronkowski.

The Ravens offense is geared towards the long pass play, and New England has given up more of those than any team in the NFL.

Tom Brady’s overall numbers versus the current Raven defense are not very good, whereas Joe Flacco’s numbers are very good versus New England’s D.

The facts are that New England is a very good football team, and they may well win the game today. However, Baltimore is also a very good team that should have beaten Denver relatively easily. If not for a punt and kickoff being returned for touchdowns, they probably would have cruised to a win.

The pro bettors love certain point-spread numbers, and 7.5 and 10 are two of them, especially when they are taking a very good football team plus a bundle of points.

In the San Francisco at Atlanta game, we have the biggest swindle yet perpetuated this post season.

Last week, Atlanta was at home and a 2 to 2.5 point favorite over Seattle. The similarities between Seattle and San Francisco are remarkable, yet because Kaepernick had a game for the ages, the public has fallen in love with him. They conveniently forget that the Packers were a mediocre to bad defensive football team, and a one-trick pony on offense.

Atlanta comes into this game today as the #1 seed in the NFC, and is the biggest underdog ever for a team in that position since the NFL playoffs expanded to it’s current format. #1 seeds don’t lose home games, especially to rookie quarterbacks. These are two numbers or trends that the pro gambler loves. Another huge factor in this game is that teams traveling from one coast to the other generally lose, regardless of who they are, and which team they are playing. For all that Seattle did to almost win last week, they were still down big early, and though they rallied and the argument could be advanced that they should have won, they lost. Atlanta wins games at home. They did not cover the spread last week, but they won, and the truer point spread this week would have them slight favorites, say 1.5 or 2, the same sort of line they had last week.

The difference in the two games is that while the pros got in early on Baltimore, they have waited to plop their money down on Atlanta, as the line has been creeping up. It opened at most books with Atlanta a 3-point underdog, to now, where the Falcons are now a 5-point dog.

Atlanta will throw a zone defense at Kaepernick today, unlike the man defense he saw from Green Bay.

In the big picture it matters little to the little guy betting the game, as he will win or lose $10 to $20, to maybe $50 or $100 on the games today. The little guy is betting on New England and San Francisco.

Both are bad bets. It doesn’t mean they won’t be winning bets, but my money would be with the pros, and the books, and both of those sets are taking the points, and betting huge sums.

Simple, really.