2012 Baseball Predictions – American League

Been absent from this for quite a while now, as life got in the way. I actually do have a job, and these days I have another part-time gig, which is helping my wife Susan take care of her dad, who is closing in on 94 years of age.

So there’s been that, and between prepping for playing in 6 fantasy baseball leagues (3 of which I am in charge of), running a NCAA hoops pool (barely out of the money – and I mean barely), I’ve hardly had the time for this stuff.

Corona, hot or cold

But who cares, right? We all have stuff to do, and the great news for me is that Susan and I are heading to Arizona on Tuesday for a week of hot sun, and cold Corona, and a visit with my son and his wife, and good times with old friends.

As far as this years MLB menu, it looks as though we will have some tasty items to consume, with the best being 5 nice division races (all but the AL Central), and a much improved wild card set up. The latter is a great move by MLB, adding one more wild card team, and having the two in each league play one game to get in the playoff mix. It’s kinda like being the Vermont Catamount men’s basketball team – one of those 65-68 seeded teams that needed to do a little extra to get into the bigger dance. At least now winning a division means something important, and those six teams can grab a day or two of rest, and not burn a top starting pitcher just to get "in." You know, kinda like spending $20 just to get inside the club, and then only having another $10 to buy drinks?

Anyway, here we go with the prognostications, and capsule summary of what looks to happen this season in the American League:

AL EAST

Remember last year when everyone picked Boston to win it all? Then the Sox get off to a 2-8 start and folks were edging towards the ledge all along Beacon Street, because you know the season was lost. Then, by the end of August, Boston has the best record in baseball and the sun is shining gloriously bright.

But you know, the brightest hour is always just before you get struck by lightning.

I hear some of the pundits say "Well, this is essentially the same Boston team that had the best record in baseball on September 1, 2011…" I have heard myself say the same thing, which really sucks, as that means I am talking to myself, but more importantly is the statement really isn’t true at all.

The Yankees, Tampa Bay and Toronto have all markedly improved, and Baltimore can be a lot better if they ever get any starting pitching worth more than a middling AAA roster.

The New York Yankees add Hiroki Kuroda, and a revived Phil Hughes to a rotation with Sabathia, Nova, and Garcia that almost makes me want to an "a" to Hughes and make Hughesa, but I wouldn’t know how to pronounce it. The bullpen is better with Soriano back, and with Raul Ibanez providing a nice lefty bat at DH, all the Yankees need is reasonable health. Look for Eduardo Nunez to get a lot of playing time spelling A-Rod and Jeter, and watch how New York hardly skips a beat when he does.

Tampa Bay has the best group of starting pitchers in all MLB and a lot of players for Joe Maddon to mix and match in a line up that leads off Desmond Jennings, the new and improved version of Carl Crawford. Ben Zobrist is solid, Carlos Pena is back, and Luke Scott was added for all the Florida right-wing wackos to love. The stud is Evan Longoria, the best ‘true’ third baseman in baseball.

It seems that Toronto is the sexy pick to find enough money to get into the dance, and it’s hard to argue with their offense not having enough, but past Ricky Romero and maybe Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez, the pitching doesn’t have a sexy shape. Too many questions on this team that need to have great answers, like will Rasmus. Lind, and Lawrie consolidate sills and become solid and productive hitters?

Two years ago Baltimore had what looked to be a nice crop of young starting pitchers in Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Britton. Baltimore traded staff anchor Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado for Jason Hammell, which is like jumping from the Titanic to the Louisitania, and signed a nice Japanese pitcher named Tsuyoshi Wada who the O’s put on the DL about 5 days ago. Now, we have a nice crapshoot of a pitching staff, and a group of hitters that looks pretty good but stagnant. I do like (catcher) Matt Wieters chances to really break out with a great year, and become the stud so many of us thought he’d already be?

So, back to Boston, and Valentine’s Folly? This is a good team, but no longer a great one, and more than any contender one that can’t suffer too many more injuries. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz will need to win a combined 50 games, leaving Valentine needing to find a way to win at least 42 or 43 more from some other guys like Daniel Bard, Felix Doubront, and hope old dudes like sweaty Vincente Padilla and meatball-tossing Aaron Cook have something to contribute. The bullpen will need to be good while they’re being over-used. I didn’t think the trade for Bailey was a good one – would’ve given the job to Bard instead of making him a starter, and the move trading Marco Scutaro to clear money in order to sign Roy Oswalt sure worked out, huh? I do like Cody Ross, he’s gamer with a swing geared to clear the Green Monster. He reminds me of what Nick Swisher is for New York, that earnest meathead-type that’s always positive and smiling, hitting .260 and a homer a week.

Matt Moore, the new Koufax?

The finish

New York

Boston (wild card)

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Baltimore

AL CENTRAL

Detroit appears to be the only sure thing as a division winner to me, but it’s not because the Tiger are that good, just that the other guys are just average or bad. Alex Avila came out of nowhere last season as a excellent hitting catcher, which allowed Victor Martinez to DH. So VMart goes down, and the Tiger sign Prince Fielder, which when I boil it down is not that much of an upgrade. Martinez is a better hitter overall, even if he’s way behind Prince as a home run hitter, and Miguel Cabrera at third base will prove to be a defensive disaster. I also look for Jose Valverde to implode, and Doug Fister to go back to being a mediocre pitcher. Beyond Avila and Austin Jackson in center field, this is a bad defensive team.  Cabrera and Fielder are the stars, and Boesch, Young, Rayburn and Peralta are good hitters.  Of course we have Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer is an ace-starting pitcher disguised as an under-achiever. That said, I make Detroit no better than the 6^th best team in the AL.

Cleveland appears to be improving, but has no pitching to be very optimistic about. Are any of us Ubaldo Jiminez fans? I like Justin Masterson, but with Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, and Jeanmar Gomez rounding things out, it could mean a lot of teams rounding the bases versus the Indians this year. Brantley (CF), Choo (RF), Kipnis (2B), Cabrera (SS), and Santana (C) are very nice offensive players which also gives Cleveland good defense up the middle. If only Grady Sizemore hadn’t had has body completely break, and Travis Hafner had been able to not follow Sizemore…and I think about what if CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee had stayed and Rocky Colavito hadn’t been traded…

The White Sox lose a great manager in (my main man) Ozzie Guillen, who never lost a fight, and gain a nice guy who never managed in Robin Ventura, who lost the one fight he’s ever had to an old dude from Texas. I have no idea what that means other than that Ozzie knew it was time to go – I think his message wore thin in Chicago, and I still think that the team has the most potential in the division to actually give the Tigers a run. A couple of nice players in Alexi Ramirez at short and Paul Konerko at first, and two guys in Adam Dunn (DH) and Alex Rios (RF) that just need to have average years to give the offense a nice boost. The pitching is decent at the worst, and there are some very nice young arms in Chris Sale, Addison Reed, Phil Humber, and Hector Santiago.

Minnesota looks to be a disaster this year, and maybe Ron Gardenhire will lose whatever magic he had all those years, guiding a steady pace to the post-season? It was ugly last year, with both Mauer and Morneau out, Capps then Nathan blowing up the bullpen, and a series of neer-do-well starting pitchers led by the blackmail-proof Carl Pavano. Francisco Liriano appears to be the American League’s answer to the Marlin’s Ricky Nolasco – you know, a guy with all the tools that sucks you in with 3 great starts, then does a dumpster fire impression in 2 straight outings? Plus, Mike Cuddyer went to Colorado and Jason Kubel to Arizona. Make no mistake, this is the worst team in the American League, and I am including Oakland and Seattle.

Kansas City is a team on the rise, and I know I have said that the last two years, but this year I mean it…again, just like I meant it the last two years. Even with the great closer Joakim Soria down for the season, the Royals have great options beyond the big donkey Jonathan Broxton. Aaron Crow, Greg Holland and Tim Collins in the bullpen are very talented, and getting starter Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants was a nice move. Former #1 (overall 2006) pick Luke Hochevar looks to break out this year, and maybe the #3 2007 pick Danny Duffy will take the next step too? Billy Butler is a excellent hitter, and Eric Hosmer (1B) will be an all star for many years. If former #1 pick (#2 overall in 2005) Alex Gordon can come close to repeating 2011, and Mike Moustakas (3B) begins to live up to hype the team will be a lot better, Alcides Escobar (SS) is great defensively and may steal 30, as is Lorenzo Cain in center. If those two gain patience and get some walks, the Royals will score some runs. That said, any team with Bruce Chen as it’s #1 starting pitcher has no shot at post-season.

Eric Hosmer, the new Brett?

The finish

Detroit

Chicago

Kansas City

Cleveland

Minnesota

AL WEST

The 2-time defending American League champions are the Texas Rangers, and how cool is that, not to have either New York or Boston filling that role? Anyone paying attention could see this building a few years ago and right now they have the best hitting team in baseball. There isn’t an easy out in the line up, and the team defense is excellent, once we get past the outfield adventures of Nelson Cruz. Colby Lewis anchors the rotation, backed by 4 very talented kids in Derek Holland (25 years old) , Matt Harrison (26), Neftali Feliz (21), and the latest (and greatest?) Japanese import, Yu Darvish (25). I am not sold on Darvish, as aside from Kuroda, and one great season by Dice-K, can anyone name another successful MLB starting pitcher from Japan? And no, Hideki Nomo does not count.

Seattle does have Ichrio, but he doesn’t pitch, and based on last season, his days as a top hitter are in the past, so naturally Seattle moves him into the 3-hole in the line up, where all those tapped grounders will work really well. If Chone Figgins can come farther back from the dead than Adam Dunn, and Dustin Ackley continues to look like a nice hitter, Ichrio may have someone to drive in, and set the table for Justin Smoak. Smoak, if you recall, was Eric Hosmer before we actually had Eric Hosmer. Seattle traded prime (starting pitcher) talent Miguel Pineda to the Yankees for prime (hitting) talent Jesus Montero, and early returns favor Seattle here, with Pineda hurting. Past that…not much, but there is still a guy named Felix Hernandez pitching out there, and he’s still only 26 years old.

The Oakland Moneyballers seem to have lost their muse, and now, with the exception of Coco "Disabled List" Crisp are forgoing all those creaky old Frank Thomas/Hideki Matsui/Gabe Gross/Jason Giambi type players for kids. Problem is these kids don’t look that good, but maybe Cespedes, Weeks, Allen and Reddick will live up to the hype. If not, about 8 weeks from now, we may get one more dose of creaky when Manny Ramirez will be eligible to play? I hope not, too much like a bad movie I’ve seen too often. Meanwhile, the pitching is very suspect, but Oakland plays in a pitcher’s park, so we’ll get to see bad pitching appear to look good and bad hitting look worse.

The Los Angeles Angels are my team to beat this season, and this is for all of baseball, not just what should prove to be the best division of all 6 in MLB, even with two crappy teams like Seattle and Oakland. It’s not just Pujols either, it’s CJ Wilson, who keeps getting better and stronger, emerging ace Jered Weaver, long time under-appreciated ace Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana, perhaps the best #4 starter on any team this side of Tampa? The bull pen is fine, and the line up doesn’t have enough openings for all the good hitters. If Kendrys Morales makes it back even 75%, and Mark Trumbo can approach his 2011 numbers and play a decent third base, the Angels won’t need much more. Maybe Vernon Wells makes a bit of a comeback, but if not the Angels will be able to slide Bobby Abreu in once in a while, or just bring up the top hitting prospect in all of baseball in Mike Trout, and plop him into left. This is the best balanced and deepest team in baseball.

Me Tarzan, Yu Darvish,

The finish

Los Angeles

Texas (wild card)

Seattle

Oakland

I hope to get to the National League in the next day or two.

Lin Spins Out – ESPN crashes and burns

Jeremy and Amare, with 'Melo and JR coming soon

It’s only been about a week, and I am already very tired of all the different ways headline makers have attempted to be cute, clever, and alliterative in using (New York Knick’s point guard) Jeremy Lin’s last name in story headlines. The kid has become the biggest story of the year in the NBA, and in a world where sports talk radio is a 24/7 proposition, all the wags and pundits need something to talk about aside from the Peyton Manning soap opera.

It’s not surprising to me that it was only a matter of a short period of time before we saw the racial angle in some of those game stories with Lin.

We had "The Knicks Good Fortune" and an accompanying fortune cookie, in extremely poor taste. Then, the New York Post (one of the biggest rags in the country) had a sports page headline shouting "Amasian!" This apparently invoking the memory of the Amazin’ Mets, all the way back in the early 1960’s.

Who thought this was a good idea?

However, the worst one (so far?) occurred last night however, when ESPN sent out a NY Knick game story to folks with ESPN apps on mobile devices. The Knicks lost their game last night, and some genius came up with this one:

"Chink in the Armor"

How stupid and pathetic is that?

Hey, I get the fact that Lin’s Asian-American roots are a big part of the attraction, because we have never had someone of that background play in the NBA before, but whoever had the ultimate responsibility at ESPN for allowing that one out should be fired.

Does the media use other derogatory phrasing in describing black players? How about German, Croatian, Italian, Spanish, or Puerto Rican hoopsters?

There are many things about the Jeremy Lin story that have been fun to follow, but the hype is still just hype. This young man is not going into the Hall of Fame, trust me. He appears to be a marginal NBA talent who found himself in the center of a perfect storm when the Knicks needed a point guard. Lin is a hard working and very intelligent player, and made the most of an opportunity to play in what turned out to be the prefect system for him. Toss in the fact that it happened in New York, and it boosted him into the spotlight.

Does Lin have a chance to have a nice career in the NBA? Of course he does, but he’s going to have to work much harder to succeed going forward.

Lin has yet to play against any top teams except for the Laker’s, who were coming off a overtime game in Boston when they played the Knicks last week. Beyond that LA game, and the following game against Utah, the Knicks have played nothing but bottom feeders. As good as Lin has been, he’s turning the ball over a ton, his shooting is not very good, and he doesn’t seem to be able to go to his left very well. Teams have started to trap him up high, or force him into driving recklessly to the basket where he seems to get airborne, and more and more often throw the ball away. This is one of the biggest errors any player can make, and one no coach ever wants to see in his point guard.

Go left young man, go left

Things are about to change dramatically in New York, with Amare Stoudemire back, Carmelo Anthony ready to return, and JR Smith recently signed. We are about to see what Jeremy Lin will be able to do with some top of the line NBA talent available to pass to, and it may not be quite as easy as it was when no one knew who the heck he was?

One thing certain is that this has been great for New York Knick fans, and a great story for the media to cover.

Just stop the over the top hype, and quit the racist crap.

Whitney and Josh

Just lovely.

I don’t know exactly what the date was in late 1985 that I tuned in to David Letterman’s show, the evening he had Whitney Houston as a guest? I really didn’t have much of an idea about who she was, though I did know she was Dionne Warwick’s cousin, and Dionne had been a chart-topper for many years, with many great tunes.

Whitney was 22 years old at the time, and when she came out to sing the song "Saving All My Love For You," she absolutely blew me away. She not only had a fabulous voice, singing a remarkable song, but she was stunningly beautiful. Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df5aaUbRx_s

All of that beauty and talent singing a song with lyrics to melt your heart, and make you question how any man wouldn't do anything for someone so seemingly perfect?

Whitney lost a lot along the way to all of the fame she would find. The young lady grew into a woman lacking whatever it was she needed to get clean – to avoid or forgo the drugs and the lifestyle that certainly killed her, and yesterday, when the news of her death was announced, she became just another sad story with a bad ending.

The Josh Hamilton story is really no different than Houston’s in my mind. Hamilton’s incredible talent is also there to marvel at, and to entertain us, and for many years he was unable to beat back the same demons that eventually killed Whitney.

I believe that drug/alcohol addiction is a disease that is not curable – once an addict, always an addict, and I have a lot of first hand knowledge on the subject, as many people do.

I'm rooting for him.

When Josh Hamilton decided to have a few drinks the other night, he claimed he was dealing with some personal problem that was so serious, he put his entire career and life on the line. For those of you that don’t suffer from being an addict, or having someone close to you suffer from the disease, it’s almost impossible to reconcile that it was normal behavior for Hamilton to go drinking. It’s abnormal for him to be sober, as anyone that’s attended a few AA meetings will testify to. The idea of drinking or using is always on his mind because it’s the answer to every problem he faces, the same way it is for the homeless guy sitting in an alley with a bottle of malt liquor.

Maybe Hamilton has the strength to do what Houston couldn’t do after another relapse, and maybe he doesn’t?

We will find out, one day at a time.

In the "Black" with Big Blue?

Back on January 8 I started writing about having $5000.00 to bet on the NFL Playoffs, and have been chronicling every bet since that time.

I am bucks up

To date, I am up $3780.00 in the endeavor, which is not as remarkable as it may otherwise appear. When I look at the past bets and consider that aside from Denver’s upset of Pittsburgh, where I lost $2000, the games on which I had large wagers weren’t hard for me to predict.

The big winners have been:

$1000 on New Orleans over Detroit

$1000 on New England over Denver

$2000 on Baltimore over Houston

$1000 on New England over Baltimore

$500 on the under of 41.5-points in the Giant/49er game

The rest of my bets have been of the nickel/dime type, and I have won a bit more than I have lost, which brings me to this evening’s game.

Betting numbers for the Super Bowl

New England is a 2.5-point favorite

The over/under is 54-points

$100 on New York earns you $120 if they win

$140 on New England earns you $100 if they win

So, what’s going to happen?

Scouts, Inc. ranks all 106 players in the game in order of value and importance, and 8 of the top 12 are New England Patriots, but the next 9 players are New York Giants. That means that 13 of the top 21 will be playing for New York.

Critically, Rob Gronkowski is #3 on the list, and we have heard endless speculation on whether he’ll be able to play effectively, or even play at all? I think the easiest wager of the day is that Gronkowski will be active, and he’ll be in the game early and often. The key is will he be able to make sharp cuts off that high-ankle sprain, and everything I have heard and read has said that it’s doubtful he’ll be able to do so?  Halftime could be critical for Gronkowski too, as not moving much on that ankle for the extended (30-minutes) period of time won’t make things better.

Look for Brady to get crunched

I would look for Tom Brady to try and hit Gronk with some passes early on to try to set the Giants up for him being a decoy. If the Patriots are able to do that, look for Brady to hone in on Aaron Hernandez on short out patterns. The Giants crowd the middle of the field defensively as well as any team in the NFL, and should be able to take most of that away from New England. This should also negate many of those short slants and drag routes over the middle to Wes Welker.

It’s obvious that the Patriots will need to slow down the Giants pass rush, so being able to gain yards running the ball is a major factor. The metrics on Brady’s effectiveness under duress are much worse than other top NFL QB’s since he had the knee injury that knocked him out of the 2008 season. While no quarterbacks ‘like’ being hit, once a player gets seriously hurt, it does stick in his mind, and I think Brady "hears the footsteps" a lot more than Eli Manning does – this is a huge factor.

When the Giants have the ball I would look for more of a mix in running the ball than we saw them use in San Francisco. I couldn’t figure out why the went almost exclusively to Ahmad Bradshaw two weeks ago, especially in the second half, when Brandon Jacobs could have been in the game pounding away? In retrospect, I think it was a function of how well the 49ers tackle, and Jacobs (who is not a good pass receiver) would have been easier to catch and bring down, than the speedier Bradshaw. I don’t think this will be the case today, and if the game is close in the last 20 minutes or so, look for Jacobs to get a lot of calls.

Manningham TD's today?

Potentially, I think the most critical match-up in the game will be Mario Manningham for the Giants, and Julius Edelman, trying to cover him one-on-one, for New England. I expect to see a lot of 3 wide receiver sets with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Manningham, and the Patriots can’t double-team all three. If Giant tight end Jake Ballard steps up with a big game, the Giants could put up a lot of points.

I don’t see this game being a track meet – it won’t be a 41-35 type of game, as the Giants defense got healthy as the playoffs began, and the Patriots defense is much improved. I don’t expect a rout either, but if it does get away from either team, I think it’ll be the Giants that run up the score, especially if the Giants D-line can hit Brady early.

Immediately after the Giants beat San Francisco I knew that New York was the better team, so I was a bit surprised that the Patriots were favored by 3.5-points.

In two weeks that number had dropped a point, which tells us that most of the early money came in on New York. The over/under dropped a point as well, meaning the under was getting most of the money.

Early on and seemingly up until a few days ago, a healthy majority of informed opinion seemed to be picking New York to win, but that majority is no longer as healthy as it was. To me, that’s a good thing, as I have little faith in public perception, and now that it appears that New England is the smart pick, I will remain steady and pick the better team to win the game.

I will put $2000 on the Giants to win.

I’ll take 2.5 points and the Giants for $100.

I’ll bet under 54-total points for $100.

I’ll parlay New York +2.5 and over 54-points for $100.

It's 2008 all over again

Go Big Blue!

Joe Pa(thetic) - Djok’s on Rafa - Peyton’s Place

The Nittany Losers

Joe Paterno was eulogized ad nauseam this past week in State College, Pennsylvania, not that I watched any of it. I changed the channel whenever ESPN would start talking about him, or showing any of the clips or airing sound bites from the proceedings.

On January 22, the day Paterno died, Washington Post reporter Sally Jenkins wrote the story of her interview with Joe Pa, which would be the final time he ever spoke with the media. Sally is the daughter of Dan Jenkins, one of the best college football writers of all time. In 1968 when Sally was 8 years old, it was her father Dan who did a story for Sports Illustrated on Paterno. I recall reading the story about a "rising star," third-year head coach leading his team to an 11-0 season. He looked like an urban hick with those rolled up pants, coke-bottle glasses and bad hair cut. He also sounded exactly like I expected a Brooklyn-born Italian guy to sound like.

As the victories began to pile up, Penn State became a major power in college football.

Sally Jenkins

There is little doubt that Paterno became more insulated and isolated in what seemed to become his little Duchy. He acquired enormous power, perhaps more than even the governor, which seems to something that happen in many states, and at some point it consumed him.

Sally Jenkins wrote: You will have to decide for yourself if Paterno could have reached the age of 85 in modern society without ever really knowing what man-boy sodomy was. "I had never heard of, of, rape and a man," he said.

This from an Italian Catholic man who lived 85 years, and apparently never read a newspaper or watched any TV, so we are left to believe that those dozens of cases of Catholic Priests raping young boys never made inroads to his consciousness?

Joe Paterno is not the biggest villain in this story, just the biggest henchman. Whatever his legacy may read like in the years and decades to come, there is no doubt that he went out as a loser, but he wasn’t the biggest loser. No, all those boys that were preyed upon by an evil monster were the biggest losers, while Joe Pathetic sat idly by, and did nothing.

Aussie! Aussie! Serb!

Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal in five sets in the Australian Open final, in what was the longest final set (5:53) of any major championship in tennis history, since the Open era began in 1968.

"Novak, that's not a tennis ball!"

I don’t follow the sport as closely as I once did, but I do seem to tune in for most of the final matches in the Majors, and I started watching this morning about mid-way through the set number 4.

It was obvious that Djokovic was starting to experience leg cramping or some other problem or problems with his mobility, and I really though Nadal had him when the latter was on-serve and up 4-2 and 30-15 in the final set. On that point, Nadal missed what appeared to an easy passing forehand down the right side which would have given him 3-shots at serving for a 5-2 lead, if he could’ve merely moved his shot a few inches to the left.

We can say that if Rafa had gotten that point, it would have changed the outcome of the match, but none of us can be honest with ourselves and be certain of that, can we?

"Rafa, is that a tennis ball?"

We can’t because Novak took that game, broke Nadal’s serve again and served out for a win in a brutally long championship that was won by a true champion versus his biggest rival.

It was a truly classovic match.

 Where is Peyton’s place?

Jim channels Quitarzan

Indianapolis Colt’s owner, 52-year old Jim Irsay is an odd dude, and he hasn’t been shy about exhibiting his rampant goofiness over the years. I read a profile of him in SI a few years ago in which he spoke of his love of rock & roll, and about his huge collection of guitars, some once owned by guys like Jerry Garcia, Elvis, and George Harrison.

Once upon a time he indulged in taking a lot of drugs, but cleaned up enough to assume control of the Colts after his father (Robert) suffered a stroke in 1996. Jim eventually took 100% control of the team in 1997, after a long wrangle with his stepmother. He was 37 years old at the time. The following year, the Colts took Peyton Manning with #1 pick the 1998 NFL draft. It was a no-brainer for the new Colts GM Bill Polian, though many ‘experts’ felt a young man named Ryan Leaf the more talented QB.

Blues and blow for this Jim.

Irsay has to be given a lot of credit for the Polian hiring, and not to damn him with faint praise, he has been a much better owner than 56-year old James Dolan, another guy that also inherited wealth and position from his father. Irsay let smart people run his team, unlike the drug-addled and guitar-strumming Dolan, who ruined the New York Rangers after their 1994 Stanley Cup Championship, and continues to be a plague upon the New York Knicks.

Remember when many of us thought Dallas Maverick’s owner Mark Cuban was a lunatic, and as far as anyone could tell, he never touched drugs and can’t play a lick of guitar? Cuban will be 54-years old this year, and won "his" first championship last summer, so the drug pattern is broken too, even if Cuban is another guy that can’t keep his mouth shut?

But back to Irsay, who is having what I can only call a "Brett Favre moment," though the path seems much more clear to me as to what needs to happen with the Colts picking up, or not picking up Peyton Manning’s $28-million option for 2012?

Manning, not unlike Farve has made Indianapolis his town as Farve captured Green Bay, but just like Farve was, Manning is aging, and has a seemingly ready-made replacement available. Andrew Luck is the new Aaron Rodgers, or even more to the point, the new Peyton Manning, isn’t he?

So what does Jim Irsay do now? I mean aside from Tweeting all kinds of rock & roll lyrics, being rocked in the media, and trying to find a way to let some stupid quotes roll off his back?

How critical is it in Irsay’s thinking that Manning has had three surgeries on his neck in a 19-month period of time, and what do new Colt’s GM Ryan Grigson and new coach Chuck Pagano have to say in all of this?

I can see it now, the Colts will decline the option on Manning and draft Andrew Luck.

Then, next season in the AFC Championship game, with his team down by 4-points, Peyton Manning leads the Miami Dolphin’s on a late 4^th quarter drive for the inevitable TD and trip to the Super Bowl. Inexplicably, he tosses an ugly interception to end his team’s season. The following year, he leads the New York Jets to a 5-11 season, and retires for good.

Meanwhile, Andrew Luck becomes a Ryan Leaf clone, and some wag dubs him "Bum" Luck while Robert Griffin III has a career in which he’s the National Football League’s MVP a record setting 5-times, and wins two Super Bowls for the San Diego Chargers.

Jim Irsay is so depressed about being scalded by the media and burned in effigy so many times by fans, he calls James Dolan’s dealer and start doing drugs again. In a peaking moment he declares that he’s had an epiphany, and Tweets that he’s decided to move the Colt’s franchise back to Baltimore.

"Scuse me while I kiss this guy!"

Yeah, right, I can see all of that happening right around the same time that George W. Bush changes his name to Jimmy-George, begins to ingest drugs (again?) and starts a rock & roll band named Jimmy-George and the Bush Beaters...

2012 Super Bowl – Deja vu all over again

Hangin' with the brothers

A few days before the NFL playoffs began, I picked the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers to meet in this year’s Super Bowl. The biggest reason why was because it would match the Harbaugh brothers coaching against one another for a second time. I figured that if nothing else, that would be a cool story.

Now that the conference finals are actually here, I am backing away from that pick the same way I would be if I had chosen New Orleans and Houston. I’m guessing that outside of a few hundred pre-teen boys from Texas towns like Katy, Sugar Land and Humble actually believed the Texans had a shot of getting there.

I did believe the New Orleans was the best team going into the playoffs – still do, for that matter. If Alex Smith had not done a Steve Young impression followed up by a Joe Montana look-alike, the Saints would be home favorites against the Giants, and the top pick to win their second Super Bowl.

When Denver upset the Pittsburgh it made New England’s path easier, and of course Baltimore had the easiest path, barely hanging on to a win versus a very depleted Texans team.

If you have listened to the pundits discuss these games, you’ve heard all the numbers and tendencies that factor in to which team they think will win, and how they’ll go about doing it.

Some of those facts or statistics are worthless, and some are invaluable. One states something to the effect that a team that scores 38 or more points in a playoff game fails to cover the spread in their next game about 85% of the time.

What does that mean? I mean I know what it says, but is that a reason to take Baltimore and the points? I know the Patriots are that team today (that scored plus 38), but can’t they be a team that falls into the 15% side of things, thus making that percentage nudge up a bit in future years?

Eli Manning has had a great season, and has been particularly effective in the 4^th quarter of a number of games. Manning and the Giants also have a bit of a history in winning playoff games on the road. Does that really mean anything today?

I started the playoffs with a make-believe total of $5000 to bet. To date, I have won 3 of my 4 big bets (winning $2000), while treading water on all my little ones (winning $40) to give me a total of $7040 going into today.

Betting numbers for the AFC Championship game

New England is a 7-point favorite

The over/under is 50-points

$100 on Baltimore earns you $250 if they win

$300 on New England earns you $100 if they win

What I see happening is not some sort of re-run of the last time these teams met at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs, when Ray Rice took it 83-yards on the first play from scrimmage, and it was 24-0 at the end of the quarter. I think the Patriots slow Rice down and force Joe Flacco to play catch-up, as I think the New England offensive line will give Tom Brady enough time to pass and ultimately score enough points to win the game.

In this game, there are two facts that I like:

1) The Ravens are not a very good road team, either in the regular season or the playoffs.

2) Joe Flacco has played in 8 playoff games. He has had only one good game, and that was against the Kansas City Chiefs.

I don’t think New England will fall outside of that 85% threshold after scoring more than 38 points last week. Meaning I would not give the 7-points in this game, but I don’t like the bet either way. I can see a 24-20 game, but can also see a 34-20 game. That means I don’t like either side of the over/under total of 50, even though my gut immediately told me the number would go over.

I feel pretty certain that the Patriots win this game, and giving 3-1 doesn’t faze me a bit after having already given 5-1, 7-1 and 7.5-1 in previous weeks.

I’ll wager $1000 on New England to win.

I’ll take Baltimore +7 points for $50.

I’ll take over 50 points for $50.

Patriots win 28-23.

Betting numbers for the NFC Championship game

San Francisco is a 2-point favorite.

The over/under is 41.5-points

$100 on New York earns you $115 if they win

$135 on San Francisco earns you $100 if they win

Candlestick Park(ing) lot

In the Giant – 49er game, weather is going to be a biggest factor, as it’s been raining in San Francisco for a couple of days, and the rain is supposed to continue all day today, with a steady wind of 10-15 MPH, and gusts up to 35.

It’s going to be a slog, which I think has to help San Francisco a bit more than New York, but not much. I think the fact that the Giants are the healthiest they been all year is the second biggest factor in this game. Having a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw teaming with Brandon Jacobs has changed what had been one of the NFL’s worst rushing attacks to a good one, and the Giants defensive line has played very well the last 3 weeks. I don’t see San Francisco scoring many points, and the Giants won’t do much better, but I think they’ll wring a win out of it.

I’ll wager $500 on the total being under 41.5.

I’ll take the Giants +2 for $100.

I’ll wager $300 on the Giants to win.

For my Parlay I’ll bet $200 and take over 50 in the Patriot/Raven game, and under 41.5 in the Giant/49er game.

Let's do it again

Giants win 19-13.

Of course if all of these picks blow up in my face, I will very quickly remind you all that I actually picked Baltimore and San Francisco to meet in the Super Bowl back in December.

The Kid calls his last slider

Kid

If you don’t already know, Gary "Kid" Carter is going to die pretty soon. He will be 58 years old on April 8, if he lives that long.

Last spring, Carter was diagnosed with brain tumors, and after some small improvement in his condition, things have recently gotten much worse.

Many casual baseball fans of the 1980’s would immediately recognize the handsomely-smiling, pushed out of the dugout bow-taking, giver and receiver of back-slapping, Gary "Kid" Carter.

If you didn’t know him, you would, or a New York Met fan would let you know about him back then. He was kind of like Tim Tebow, but where Tebow is always giving, Gary was sometimes taking. What I am saying is, Gary Carter was a really good guy, but he had some legitimate detractors – not only for his self-promotion, but also for his lack of production after 1986, at least according to any ardent Met fan of the time.

In 1985, when the New York Mets acquired slugging, All Star catcher Gary Carter in a trade with the Montreal Expos, the future Hall of Famer became another huge piece of a Met team that remains the best they have ever had. Carter had a great season in 1985, when the Mets fell a bit short of the Cardinals, in spite of Dwight Gooden’s unbelievable year. The Kid followed 1985 up with a good season in 1986, when the Mets won the Series. Carter only hit .255 but had 24 homers and drove in 104, and he was great behind the plate. After that season, Carter spent more and more time on the DL, and was never really a productive hitter again. All those years behind the plate took a huge toll.

Another homer for the Kid

Past that, he was well worthy of being elected to the Hall of Fame, and is arguably a top 10 catcher, all time.

The best Gary Carter story I know is really a Keith Hernandez, Jesse Orosco, and Gary Carter story:

In the 6^th game of the 1986 NL Championship game versus the Houston Astros, the Mets were up 3 games to 2, trying to end a remarkable extra-inning marathon, clinch the pennant, and not have to face Mike Scott in a game seven they knew they couldn’t win.

The Mets had come off the mat in the top of the 9^th inning for 3 runs to tie the game, after having been shut out through 8 innings.

In the 14^th, the Mets pushed a run across, and asked Orosco to shut ‘em down.

Jesse threw a fastball to Mickey Hatcher who jacked it down the left field line to tie the game.

In the top of the 16^th, the Mets piled up 3 runs, and asked Orosco to shut ‘em down.

After striking out the first batter on a slider, Jesse ended up walking a guy, and then Houston got three singles off fastballs sandwiched around a groundball force. Houston scored two runs, and had the tying run on second base with two out.

At that crucial moment in New York Mets history, Gary Carter walked out to the mound to talk to Orosco about how to pitch to the next batter. Hernandez wandered over from first base.

Orosco’s fastball was getting creamed every time he threw it, and he was a very tired pitcher at that moment. Carter is out there trying to pump Jesse up, and find out what he wants to throw?

Keith says, "Kid, if you call anything other than the slider I will kill you."

Kevin Bass struck out on a slider, and the Mets had won their first pennant since 1973.

Carter had two huge home runs in game 4 of the World Series against the Red Sox in Fenway that led the Mets to a win that tied the series up.

In Game 6 of that series, one of the greatest games in baseball history, Kid Carter had the first two-out hit in the bottom of the tenth inning of that game. That hit started arguably the greatest last-ditch comeback in World Series history, when the Mets rallied for 3-runs to win, and force a game 7?

Champs!

Hey Kid, thanks for all the hits, and the pennant, and the Championship.

And thanks for callin’ for the slider from Orosco.