So, my big "bet" yesterday was $2000 on the Baltimore Ravens, which would have been a $3600 beat had they lost. I also sprayed the board with all kinds of minor bets, hitting most.
To date, I am up $2060, which is about how much Susan is down.
Of course you should remember this isn’t real money we are betting, it’s just for fun, and a way for me to somewhat prove that anyone can be right or wrong on these games, and often it’s a fluke that will beat you, or gain you a win.
One of the truths in betting football is that often there are no good bets – meaning there really isn’t an obvious win on the board – but so far in these playoffs I saw 4 sure things. All of them were bets on which team would win the game, against the Moneyline, meaning that I had to risk a lot of money to win.
My 4 sure things were:
Won $1000 when New Orleans beat Detroit – risking $7000.
Lost $2000 when Pittsburgh lost to Denver – trying to win $500.
Won $2000 when Baltimore beat Houston – risking $3600.
Won $1000 when New England beat Denver – risking $7500.
Hitting 75% is extremely difficult to do, just picking winners for a buck a piece, let alone risking a total loss of $20,100 to win a bit more than 2-grand. If I had lost one of those other bets I would have gotten creamed
The early lines on next weekend’s games have the Patriots at home and a 7.5 favorite against the Ravens, and the Giants a 2.5 underdog at San Francisco.
To win $1000 on New England, one would have to wager $3200.
To win $1000 on San Francisco, one would need to risk $1400.
I have no idea which teams win next weekend, though I am leaning towards taking both underdogs and the favorable side of the Moneyline for small dollars.
So what is the Sure Thing?
In Las Vegas, there are all kinds of bets one can make on any game. From how many passes Tim Tebow would complete versus the Patriots (the over/under was 11.5), to how many rushing yards Ray Rice would gain against Houston. These are called Prop (proposition) bets, and there are 20, 30, or more for each game.
Best bet?
If San Francisco wins the opening coin flip versus the Giants, they will defer.
Bet the house. It’s not sexy or very exciting, but it’s the only sure thing.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Sunday, January 15, 2012
a small series of random events
In October of 2010, during our annual Cape Cod vacation in Wellfleet, Susan and I took a drive south one day to do some sightseeing and paid another visit to the Yellow Umbrella Bookstore in Chatham.
I didn’t find any used books I wanted, but did pick up a copy of David McCullough’s "The Great Bridge," which is his wonderfully told history of the epic building of the Brooklyn Bridge.
The following day, we decided to drive around a little before dusk, so I could take some photographs. We wandered down Lieutenant Island Road, and out to the island itself where I got some very nice shots of the sunset.
A day later, I was finishing up reading another excellent book, this one titled "Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition," by Daniel Okrent. (Not a bad title for a book to read while imbibing in adult beverages and lazing away days by the ocean, I might add?)
So I am reading the acknowledgements, and in the 3rd paragraph Okrent describes meeting Ken Burns while strolling across the Brooklyn Bridge one day. It was a "Hmm" moment, but nothing exceptionally odd.
I finished the acknowledgements and remarked to Susan regarding the Brooklyn Bridge thing, and the fact that at the end of his acknowledgements Okrent wrote:
Susan says, "You should look up his address in the phone book?"
I said, "I would have to think he’s unlisted," but indeed he was listed in the local phone book.
Daniel Okrent lives on Lieutenant Island.
David McCullough lives in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York, where Susan and I both grew up.
One of my oldest and closest friends (Carl Goldman) went to college with Ken Burns at Hampshire College.
Just a small series of random events.
The following day, we decided to drive around a little before dusk, so I could take some photographs. We wandered down Lieutenant Island Road, and out to the island itself where I got some very nice shots of the sunset.
A day later, I was finishing up reading another excellent book, this one titled "Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition," by Daniel Okrent. (Not a bad title for a book to read while imbibing in adult beverages and lazing away days by the ocean, I might add?)
So I am reading the acknowledgements, and in the 3rd paragraph Okrent describes meeting Ken Burns while strolling across the Brooklyn Bridge one day. It was a "Hmm" moment, but nothing exceptionally odd.
D.O.
Wellfleet, Massachusetts
August 2009
Susan says, "You should look up his address in the phone book?"
I said, "I would have to think he’s unlisted," but indeed he was listed in the local phone book.
 |
| Lt. Island Road, October 2010 |
David McCullough lives in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York, where Susan and I both grew up.
One of my oldest and closest friends (Carl Goldman) went to college with Ken Burns at Hampshire College.
Just a small series of random events.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NFL PLayoffs -- The "Smart" Money
If you care to scroll down to last week's Blog titled "$5000.00 to Bet on the NFL" and did some math, you could see that I am down $1140 from last week, and it was the Broncos upsetting the Steelers that did most of the damage.
I took the Steelers straight in that game, meaning I wasn't giving points, just betting the Money Line, or odds. I gave 4:1 on $500, which meant I lost $2000. It was good that I hit all bets on the New Orleans game, and won $1560, including a parlay, to help offset the beat down I took when the Pittsburgh secondary bit on the run-fake in OT.
Isn't it funny how one can be so certain of a game on Saturday (Saints over Lions) and win, and almost as sure about a game on the following Sunday, and lose?
Yeah, it's hilarious. But you know, I had plenty of company on the Pittsburgh bet. Word is the handle (total money bet on the game) world-wide was over a billion dollars! A ton of it was on Pittsburgh straight, or giving anywhere from 8 to 10 points, but word out of Las Vegas was that the smart money was taking Denver and the points, and the wise guys cleaned up. We dumb-asses got clobbered.
This week, I am putting almost all my dollars into one bet, which $1000 on New England to win, and I am laying 7.5:1, which means I win a thousand if New England wins, but I lose $7500 if they don't. That would also mean I am done betting for the season.
Smart money is also taking San Francisco +3.5-points, while the general public can't bet enough on the Saints, who are now the flavor of the week to win the Super Bowl. I hear that this game marks only the second time a home team has been an underdog in a Divisional Playoff game. The weather is supposed to be sunny with temps in the 60's for the game.
Smart money is also taking Denver +13.5-points. Forecast is 20 degrees, breezy, and wind chill in single-digits.
For the record, my bets are:
$50 on San Francisco +3.5 over New Orleans
$50 on the Under (47) in that game
$50 on San Francisco to win, which pays $85
$50 on Denver +13.5 over New England
$50 on the Over (50) in that game
$1000 on New England to win, where I could lose $7500
I am also betting $100 on a parlay with New Orleans -3.5 and Over 47 points in the same game. That pays $260 if I win both bets.
I was positive New Orleans was going to win last week. Almost as positive about Pittsburgh to win. There were no points to give, I just had to have teams win their damn games.
This week, I am almost as positive about New England winning as I was New Orleans.
Susan (who lost $1810 last week) was a bit more democratic in betting her money. Susan's big picks are the Saints ($300) and Patriots ($400) to both win. The rest are $50 bets, including a parlay of both Overs.
Tomorrow, we will hopefully have enough smart money left to make those two Sunday games a bit more interesting?
I took the Steelers straight in that game, meaning I wasn't giving points, just betting the Money Line, or odds. I gave 4:1 on $500, which meant I lost $2000. It was good that I hit all bets on the New Orleans game, and won $1560, including a parlay, to help offset the beat down I took when the Pittsburgh secondary bit on the run-fake in OT.
Isn't it funny how one can be so certain of a game on Saturday (Saints over Lions) and win, and almost as sure about a game on the following Sunday, and lose?
Yeah, it's hilarious. But you know, I had plenty of company on the Pittsburgh bet. Word is the handle (total money bet on the game) world-wide was over a billion dollars! A ton of it was on Pittsburgh straight, or giving anywhere from 8 to 10 points, but word out of Las Vegas was that the smart money was taking Denver and the points, and the wise guys cleaned up. We dumb-asses got clobbered.
This week, I am putting almost all my dollars into one bet, which $1000 on New England to win, and I am laying 7.5:1, which means I win a thousand if New England wins, but I lose $7500 if they don't. That would also mean I am done betting for the season.
Smart money is also taking San Francisco +3.5-points, while the general public can't bet enough on the Saints, who are now the flavor of the week to win the Super Bowl. I hear that this game marks only the second time a home team has been an underdog in a Divisional Playoff game. The weather is supposed to be sunny with temps in the 60's for the game.
Smart money is also taking Denver +13.5-points. Forecast is 20 degrees, breezy, and wind chill in single-digits.
For the record, my bets are:
$50 on San Francisco +3.5 over New Orleans
$50 on the Under (47) in that game
$50 on San Francisco to win, which pays $85
$50 on Denver +13.5 over New England
$50 on the Over (50) in that game
$1000 on New England to win, where I could lose $7500
I am also betting $100 on a parlay with New Orleans -3.5 and Over 47 points in the same game. That pays $260 if I win both bets.
I was positive New Orleans was going to win last week. Almost as positive about Pittsburgh to win. There were no points to give, I just had to have teams win their damn games.
This week, I am almost as positive about New England winning as I was New Orleans.
Susan (who lost $1810 last week) was a bit more democratic in betting her money. Susan's big picks are the Saints ($300) and Patriots ($400) to both win. The rest are $50 bets, including a parlay of both Overs.
Tomorrow, we will hopefully have enough smart money left to make those two Sunday games a bit more interesting?
Friday, January 13, 2012
Tebowie
I promise that if you have not seen it yet, it’s more than worth it.
http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/tebowie-11212/1378838
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Cotton Futures are Up!
This is a great story my son Matt told me last night. Matt grew up in, and is attending law school in Tucson Arizona. He also attended Palo Verde High School in Tucson back when he thought he'd become a teacher, and well...here's the story in Matt's words...
So when I was doing my student teaching at Palo Verde High School, there was a sophomore in my World History class named Austin, this big country boy from Louisville. Austin was a writer for the student paper, and a manager for the basketball team. He was friends with a senior on the team named Bryce Cotton, who was a lower-level Division I prospect. Austin was basically Bryce’s hype man.
Austin liked to write and he was a huge Louisville Cardinal basketball fan. He was always writing stories for, and making posts to Louisville basketball forums basically saying…
"Hey, Pitino should come look at my boy Bryce Cotton," and of course all the other posters on the forums would say "Yeah, yeah, sure," thinking Austin is jerking them around. "Ok dude, any other buddies from your high school you'd like Pitino to offer a scholarship to?"
So Cotton was making the rounds, doing the things that lower level prospects do to try to and get offered scholarships. Around the last day of summer, right before college started, Bryce Cotton received and accepted a scholarship offer from Providence College. That was two years ago. Bryce Cotton is a sophomore now.
On January 10th, Providence College beat Rick Pitino’s #15 Louisville Cardinals 90-59.
The leading scorer in the game with 27 points? You got it, Bryce Cotton.
Amidst all the frustrated chatter on the forums during and after the game, someone asks Austin:
"Hey, do you think Bryce Cotton would still come to Louisville?"
 |
| #11, Bryce Cotton |
So when I was doing my student teaching at Palo Verde High School, there was a sophomore in my World History class named Austin, this big country boy from Louisville. Austin was a writer for the student paper, and a manager for the basketball team. He was friends with a senior on the team named Bryce Cotton, who was a lower-level Division I prospect. Austin was basically Bryce’s hype man.
Austin liked to write and he was a huge Louisville Cardinal basketball fan. He was always writing stories for, and making posts to Louisville basketball forums basically saying…
"Hey, Pitino should come look at my boy Bryce Cotton," and of course all the other posters on the forums would say "Yeah, yeah, sure," thinking Austin is jerking them around. "Ok dude, any other buddies from your high school you'd like Pitino to offer a scholarship to?"
 |
| Bryce, versus #15 Louisville |
On January 10th, Providence College beat Rick Pitino’s #15 Louisville Cardinals 90-59.
The leading scorer in the game with 27 points? You got it, Bryce Cotton.
Amidst all the frustrated chatter on the forums during and after the game, someone asks Austin:
 |
| No wool, I need cotton! |
"Hey, do you think Bryce Cotton would still come to Louisville?"
Sunday, January 8, 2012
$5,000.00 to Bet on the NFL
Every year for a number of years now, my wife Susan and I have a little contest to see which one of us can earn the most money betting on the NFL playoffs.
It’s all make-believe, we aren’t really each taking five-grand, and spraying the board, just having some fun, and giving us a rooting interest in every game.
For the record, Susan (photo-right) is just as likely to beat me, as I am to beat her. That fact speaks to my main caveat regarding sports wagering, which is that 99% of the world can’t beat Vegas over a sustained period of time with enough consistency to make it pay.
We "bet" each of the 11 NFL playoff games three different ways:
Which team will win, on the Money Line?
Which team will cover the Point Spread?
Will the two teams point total be Over or Under the number?
This year, we are also betting one Parlay for each day of play, which will be 6 or 7?
We have to bet each game all three ways and the parlay with a minimum $50 bet.
In the Cincinnati at Houston game yesterday, we both took a beating when we took the Bengals to win, but at least Susan bet over 38 points on the total, so she won that bet.
So, going into last night’s game, Susan had one right and two wrong and she was down $210.
I was 0-3, and because I bet more than her I was down $630.
Well, not too awful, considering I still had $4370 left, right?
"Uh oh," I thought, as in the second game I took New Orleans on the Money Line, and bet $1000. If they had lost, it would have cost $7000, and I’d have been wiped out after the first two games, and hitchhiking home from Vegas with a miserable ache in my gut and a promissory note in my pocket.
I don’t know why I felt so sure New Orleans would win, but I did. They were 8-0 at home for the season, and 8-0 at home versus the spread. Considering the Lions couldn’t stop Matt Flynn from throwing 6 TD passes, I figured it would be a breeze for Brees to be great, and for the Saints to win.
If I learned anything about sports wagering in the years when I was very actively engaged in that pursuit it was that you can’t let odds determine where you put your money. You also should only bet the games or propositions that you have the most confidence in.
I ended up sweeping the board in the late game, winning all three bets plus winning my parlay. I was plus $1560, which meant I am plus $930 overall, going into today’s games.
Susan made a comeback too, even though she lost her parlay, and Detroit +10.5 points. She won the Over/Under and her straight (Money Line) bet on the Saints. She is only down $10 going into today.
So, today I am betting the following:
I am taking Atlanta +3 points over New York for $50.00.
I am taking over 47.5 points in the Atlanta/New York game for $100.00.
I am betting $310 on the Giants to win, which would earn me $200.00.
Total, in this game, I could win as much as $350.00, and lose as much as $475.00.
I am taking Denver +8 points over Pittsburgh for $50.00.
I am taking under 33.5 points in the Pittsburgh/Denver game for $50.00.
I am betting $2000.00 on Pittsburgh to win, which would earn me $500.00.
Total, in this game, I could win as much as $600.00, and lose as much as $2100.00.
For my parlay (which pays 13:5), I am taking New York –3 and Pittsburgh –8 for $100.00, which would earn me $260.00.
A part of me is also betting that Susan does better than I do.
It’s all make-believe, we aren’t really each taking five-grand, and spraying the board, just having some fun, and giving us a rooting interest in every game.
 |
| Red, white and beautiful. |
We "bet" each of the 11 NFL playoff games three different ways:
Which team will win, on the Money Line?
Which team will cover the Point Spread?
Will the two teams point total be Over or Under the number?
This year, we are also betting one Parlay for each day of play, which will be 6 or 7?
We have to bet each game all three ways and the parlay with a minimum $50 bet.
In the Cincinnati at Houston game yesterday, we both took a beating when we took the Bengals to win, but at least Susan bet over 38 points on the total, so she won that bet.
So, going into last night’s game, Susan had one right and two wrong and she was down $210.
I was 0-3, and because I bet more than her I was down $630.
Well, not too awful, considering I still had $4370 left, right?
 |
| Bet now! Damn it! NOW!!! |
I don’t know why I felt so sure New Orleans would win, but I did. They were 8-0 at home for the season, and 8-0 at home versus the spread. Considering the Lions couldn’t stop Matt Flynn from throwing 6 TD passes, I figured it would be a breeze for Brees to be great, and for the Saints to win.
If I learned anything about sports wagering in the years when I was very actively engaged in that pursuit it was that you can’t let odds determine where you put your money. You also should only bet the games or propositions that you have the most confidence in.
I ended up sweeping the board in the late game, winning all three bets plus winning my parlay. I was plus $1560, which meant I am plus $930 overall, going into today’s games.
Susan made a comeback too, even though she lost her parlay, and Detroit +10.5 points. She won the Over/Under and her straight (Money Line) bet on the Saints. She is only down $10 going into today.
So, today I am betting the following:
I am taking Atlanta +3 points over New York for $50.00.
I am taking over 47.5 points in the Atlanta/New York game for $100.00.
I am betting $310 on the Giants to win, which would earn me $200.00.
Total, in this game, I could win as much as $350.00, and lose as much as $475.00.
I am taking Denver +8 points over Pittsburgh for $50.00.
I am taking under 33.5 points in the Pittsburgh/Denver game for $50.00.
I am betting $2000.00 on Pittsburgh to win, which would earn me $500.00.
 |
| Leaving Vegas the hard way. |
For my parlay (which pays 13:5), I am taking New York –3 and Pittsburgh –8 for $100.00, which would earn me $260.00.
A part of me is also betting that Susan does better than I do.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Southern Cross
 |
| Stephen Stills |
A truly great song and great lyrics.
Click the link, turn up the volume, and put this on full screen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuLBhxZUkmU&feature=related
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
