Flavor of the Weak

Aaron Rodgers is the greatest quarterback in history!

That’s what I have been hearing all week on TV and radio. Is there anything goofier about the NFL than how ‘experts’ change their opinions about players and teams after a game or two? How weak is that?

Last Saturday during the telecast of the Packer – Falcon game, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman anointed Rodgers as the one guy they would take with the first over all pick, if they were starting a NFL team at that moment.

Really???

It’s apparent that a huge segment of the media buys into things just as easily as the American public does. That said, I know that TV media influences people’s perceptions about football to the point where all of the Las Vegas lines on the Green Bay at Chicago game are floating around 3 to 4 points, with the Packers the favorite on the road in a conference championship game.

Vegas is also counting on the betting public to believe this game will be relatively high scoring, with the over/under number at 43.

Vegas knows that a majority of bettors will give the points and take Green Bay. Most doing that are also thinking the game will be high scoring – at least in the 50’s, for total points. The smart lads in Vegas are counting on a bulk of the money coming in on Green Bay until late, when the smart players will take the points and put up the big money.

The game will be played on Soldier Field in crappy, cold and windy weather – not inside a nice warm dome in Atlanta. Green Bay’s offensive line is average, and the Bears pass rush is very good.

I like Aaron Rodgers, and he may yet become an elite NFL QB, but right now he’s a good QB with a target on him from a Bear defense that’s spent all week hearing how fabulous he is. Maybe he throws darts in the wind tunnel, but his running will be negated on that awful playing field, and players will be slipping and sliding all over the place.

If the Bears win or tie the turnover battle, put up a few points on offense and play their usual excellent defense, their great special teams will carry the day.

I like Green Bay too, and of the 4 teams left they may just be the best, but they are on the road in a place where they had 18 penalties the last time they played there. Last week in Sports Illustrated there was a compelling article stating that officials are absolutely influenced by screaming crowds in the favor of the home team in any game. I believe it.

Give me the 4 points and I’ll take Bears, as I already like them to win straight up. I like the Under (43) in this game as well. I’ll be rooting for a slog through the muck at mid field.

As an added treat, I’ll take the Jets too, and the 3.5 points, though I like the Steelers to win the game by a point or 3. I’ll also take the Under, with the total at 38.

For the record, last week I had 3 right and 9 wrong, so you all know this is not coming from a meeting of the Algonquin Round Table of Football Expertise. I don’t think Dorothy Parker knew squat about football, but she knew a weak suck when she saw one.